The AFC North odds on Kalshi describe a division the standings page does not. Pittsburgh won this thing at 10-7 last season, and the market has already benched them: the Steelers trade third at 17.5 cents, behind a Baltimore team that went 8-9 and a Cincinnati team that went 6-11. Then, in the six days since we last scored this board, the market did something it had not done all month. Baltimore's contract closed at 44 cents on August 22, and the next day 43,500 contracts changed hands, open interest jumped from 60,900 to 104,300, and the Ravens closed at 46. They have closed at 48 the last two days. We handed all four teams back to the AI panel without letting any seat see a price. Every seat came back with Baltimore first, which is where the market has it too. And every seat priced Baltimore below what the market is now paying, by more than it did before the money arrived.
The Quick Answer
AFC North odds on Kalshi price Baltimore at 47.5 cents, Cincinnati at 33.5, Pittsburgh at 17.5 and Cleveland at 3.5, as of August 28, 2026. A six-model panel scored the same four teams price-blind and agreed on the order, but not the shape: Baltimore 41%, Cincinnati 29.5%, Pittsburgh 21.5%, Cleveland 8.25%. The market moved toward the Ravens this week on real volume; the panel did not follow it. The full per-seat board, the price history behind the move, and the one trigger from our last board that has already fired are below.
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The Market
Kalshi's AFC North event (KXNFLAFCNORTH-27) lists the division's four teams as four separate yes-or-no contracts. The settlement language is one sentence with the team name swapped. Baltimore's reads: "If Baltimore wins the Pro Football AFC North Division, then the market resolves to Yes." Kalshi names the league itself as the settlement source.
Two features of that rule matter for pricing. It settles on the division title rather than on record, so if two teams finish level the NFL's published tiebreaker sequence decides it: head-to-head first, then division record, then common games, then conference record. And exactly one team is named champion every season, so unlike some championship boards there is no split payout. These four contracts describe one winner.
It is also not a playoff market, and this division proved the point in the other direction last season. Pittsburgh won the AFC North at 10-7, and no other team in the division reached the postseason at all. A division title here is the only thing that pays.
The four contracts have traded about 546,100 contracts between them, the deepest of the four AFC division markets on the exchange by a wide margin: the AFC West board has traded roughly 362,000, the AFC South 202,900 and the AFC East 195,300. Contracts close early once a champion is declared, and the exchange lists an expected expiration of January 11, 2027.
Prices below are the midpoint of the live bid and ask as of August 28, 2026, and the panel's numbers were generated the same day. Prices and panel numbers on this page are re-scored when the story moves, and the dated stamp changes with them. This is the second re-score since the page went up on August 12; the last one was August 22.
The Board
The AI blend is the median of the independent models that returned a board, after a revision round in which each read the others' reasoning.
| Team | 2025 record and point differential | Kalshi | AI blend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 8-9, +26 | 47.5¢ | 41.0% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6-11, -78 | 33.5¢ | 29.5% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-7, +10 | 17.5¢ | 21.5% |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-12, -100 | 3.5¢ | 8.25% |
How To Read This Board
A price in cents is roughly the market's implied probability. Baltimore at 47.5¢ means traders collectively give the Ravens about a 47.5 percent chance, and a contract that resolves yes pays $1, so the return on a winning Ravens contract is about 2.11 times the stake. Cincinnati at 33.5¢ returns about 2.99 times, Pittsburgh at 17.5¢ about 5.71 times, Cleveland at 3.5¢ about 28.6 times.
Because the NFL always names one champion, the four contracts cover every outcome between them. They are still four separately quoted markets, so the midpoints need not total exactly 100. Here they sum to 102 cents, up from 101.5 a week ago: Baltimore added three cents while Pittsburgh and Cleveland gave most of it back. All four contracts now sit inside a one-cent spread; Cleveland's book, which was three-to-five on August 22, has tightened to three-to-four.
The blend column is a median of independent estimates rather than a single distribution, so it also need not total exactly 100. It sums to 100.25.
More live boards from the same panel: NFC East, where Philadelphia leads at 40.5¢ and Dallas sits 2 cents back · AFC Championship 2027, where Buffalo leads at 14.5¢ and Baltimore, this division's favorite, trades second at 12.5¢ · AFC West, where Kansas City leads at 34.5¢ and last season's 14-3 champion trades second at 31.5¢. Prices fetched August 28, 2026.
Every Seat's Number
The full per-model board, after the revision round. Six of the panel's eight seats returned a board this run; two seats, GLM and DeepSeek, did not respond, so this board is a six-seat median rather than the eight-seat median of August 22. On a phone this table scrolls sideways; the board above carries the headline numbers.
| Team | ChatGPT | Gemini | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Kimi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 41.5% | 41.0% | 39.0% | 41.0% | 41.0% | 41.0% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 31.0% | 31.0% | 29.0% | 29.0% | 28.0% | 30.0% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 19.0% | 20.0% | 23.0% | 22.0% | 22.0% | 21.0% |
| Cleveland Browns | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% |
Read the top row first this time. Six models built six separate views of this division and five of them landed on Baltimore at 41 or 41.5 percent, with Claude Fable the lone seat under 40. That is a 2.5-point spread on the favorite, against a market that moved 3 cents in the other direction this week. The bottom row is as tight as it was on August 22: every seat between 8 and 9 percent on a team trading at 3.5 cents. The panel's widest disagreement is now on Pittsburgh, a four-point spread between ChatGPT at 19 and Claude Fable at 23.
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: Claude Fable 84% on 807 graded calls · Claude Opus 84% on 877 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 82% on 852 graded calls · GPT 84% on 6,460 graded calls · Gemini 86% on 5,151 graded calls · Kimi 82% on 2,576 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Model estimates generated August 28, 2026, price-blind from live fetched data. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the market settles. The running tally lives on the full graded scoreboard. Six of eight seats returned a board for this market; the two that did not are recorded as absent, not as agreeing.
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The One Number The 2025 Standings Hide
Before any team-by-team read, the fact every seat built its board on. The 2025 AFC North standings are not a table of how good these teams were. They are a table of who had a quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers played 16 of Pittsburgh's 17 games. Lamar Jackson played 13 of Baltimore's. Joe Burrow played 8 of Cincinnati's. Deshaun Watson played none of Cleveland's, and rookie Shedeur Sanders played eight with a 68.1 passer rating and 10 interceptions. The two teams the market now prices first and second missed a combined 13 quarterback-games. The team that won the division missed one quarterback-game.
Look at what happened underneath. Baltimore finished 8-9 and still posted the division's best point differential at +26, better than the 10-7 champion's +10. Cincinnati finished 6-11 and still scored 414 points, twelfth in the league, because Burrow ran a 100.7 rating in the games he played. Pittsburgh's 10-7 came with +10, which is the thinnest point differential of any AFC North champion in the 24 seasons since 2002. The next-thinnest is the 2009 Bengals at +14. Every other champion in that table reached at least +45.
That is the whole disagreement between the panel and the market in one paragraph. What changed this week is that the market read the same paragraph and paid up for the team it favors, while the panel read it and held its number. The rest of this page is the four teams that reading produces.
Baltimore Ravens: Every Seat's Favorite, And A Wider Fade Than Before
Baltimore is still the strangest result on the board, and the week made it stranger. On August 22 the market had the Ravens at 44.5 cents and the panel at 38.5, a six-point gap. Now the market has them at 47.5 and the panel at 41. Both sides moved up. The gap moved up with them, to 6.5 points, because the money that arrived on August 23 was buying Baltimore harder than any model was willing to.
The case for Baltimore is the card's cleanest, and it got a little cleaner. Best point differential in the division with a quarterback who missed four games. Eleventh in the league in points scored. Derrick Henry still in the backfield. Trey Hendrickson, a back-to-back 17.5-sack edge rusher, signed away from Cincinnati on March 11 for four years and $112 million, with $60 million of it fully locked in at signing, and the Ravens' own reporting this week has him practicing at full strength. And Jackson, asked on August 26 whether he is ready for the September 13 opener against Indianapolis, said "absolutely," and described an offense that has "progressed each and every week."
So why does no seat go past 41.5? Because Baltimore changed almost everything else, and the card now lists what it cost. John Harbaugh was dismissed on January 6 after 18 seasons, a 180-113 record and a Super Bowl. Jesse Minter, who has never been an NFL head coach, was hired on January 22. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who built the offense that produced that +26, left to become head coach of Cleveland, and Declan Doyle is installing a new system in his place. Center Danny Pinter was placed on injured reserve on August 26 with a torn patella tendon. And Minter said on August 24 that he did not have a "definitive answer" on whether defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike, dealing with a neck issue, will be available for Week 1.
"Simultaneous HC and OC turnover on an MVP-caliber offense is real installation risk, and it caps BAL near 41." — Claude Opus
"Baltimore's brakes are real: a first-time head coach, a new coordinator installing a new offense, Pinter out for the year, Madubuike's neck undecided for Week 1, and Monken carrying three seasons of Ravens offensive knowledge to Cleveland. That holds me under 40." — Claude Fable
The panel's position is unchanged from a week ago, and sharper for the price having moved: Baltimore is the right favorite. A team replacing its head coach and its offensive coordinator in one offseason, with its starting center on injured reserve and its best interior defender unresolved for Week 1, is a 39-to-41.5 percent favorite in a four-team race. It is not a 47.5 percent one.
Cincinnati Bengals: A 6-11 Record With Eight Quarterback Games In It
Cincinnati is the one row that did not move at all in the market. The contract closed at 34 cents every day from August 19 through today, while the three teams around it repriced. The panel's median came in at 28 percent in the first round and rose to 29.5 after the seats read each other, against a 33.5-cent price, a four-point gap, the same size as Pittsburgh's, and the only row where the seats' revised numbers still span three points.
The bull case is the simplest on the board. Burrow played eight games at a 100.7 rating with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions, and Cincinnati still scored 414 points, twelfth in the league, with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins intact. Cincinnati also drew the softest schedule of the three contenders, .450 by opponents' 2025 win percentage, against Baltimore's .479 and Pittsburgh's .495. Only Cleveland's .429 is lower. Burrow took 13 preseason snaps against Detroit on August 13, went 5 of 6, and then sat with the rest of the starters in a 27-9 win over Chicago; the club has said the starters will not play in the finale either. Healthy and rested is the whole point.
The cap is the defense, and it is a large one. Cincinnati allowed 492 points last season, thirtieth of 32. The club traded the tenth overall pick to the New York Giants for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II to attack that, which is a real answer at one position. In the same offseason it let Hendrickson walk to Baltimore without using the franchise tag, and rookie edge Shemar Stewart is out several weeks with a hyperextended knee. Chase, meanwhile, missed practice on August 26 with a knee issue of his own. Several seats made the same point in different words: one interior tackle does not replace a 17.5-sack edge rusher, and the team that got him plays you twice.
"Cincinnati is a legitimate second, not a distant one: an 8-game Burrow sample scored 414 points, and Dexter Lawrence targets the 30th-ranked defense — but they gave up a first-round pick for him and handed their best pass-rusher to the division leader, so I don't push them past the high-20s." — Claude Sonnet
Gemini filed the dissent on the other side, opening at 36 percent on Burrow's return and the softer slate. It came down to 31 after the revision round and still argued that Zac Taylor "offers the only head-coaching continuity in an AFC North undergoing massive regime changes," and that a healthy Burrow gives the division its highest ceiling. That continuity point is the one the market's 33.5 cents is quietly paying for, and it is the reason this row's spread runs from 28 to 31 rather than collapsing.
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Thinnest Champion In The Table
Pittsburgh is the row where the panel is above the market, and the market spent the week making that gap wider. The Steelers closed at 19 on August 22, printed a thin 14-cent close on August 24, bounced back to 19 the next day, and have settled at 17 and 18 since. The panel has them at 21.5 percent against 17.5 cents, a four-point gap where there was a 2.5-point one a week ago.
The bear case is heavy and mostly numeric. The +10 differential is the weakest of any AFC North champion since 2002. The defending champion has repeated only 6 times in 23 chances in this division, 26 percent. Champions here average 11.5 wins; Pittsburgh won 10. The Steelers drew the division's hardest 2026 schedule at .495. They had no first-round pick. Mike Tomlin stepped away in January after 19 seasons without a losing record, Mike McCarthy replaced him, and Aaron Rodgers re-signed at 42 on a one-year deal for what he has called his final season.
And then the season ended the way it ended: a 30-6 wild-card loss to Houston in which Pittsburgh managed 175 yards of total offense. It was the franchise's seventh consecutive playoff loss, the longest active streak in the NFL, and it made Pittsburgh the first team in league history to lose five straight playoff games by 10 or more points.
The week's news cut both ways, and that is why the seats split on this row more than on any other. Jalen Ramsey was activated from the physically-unable-to-perform list on August 24 after missing all of camp with a knee injury that did not need surgery. Joey Porter Jr. is still on it, with a back problem that has kept him there since July 28 and no activation date from McCarthy. Rodgers and the rest of the starters sat out a 28-27 preseason loss at Buffalo on August 27, which is what a coach does with a 42-year-old quarterback 17 days before the opener.
"McCarthy's experience and last year's 4-2 division record keep it above 20." — Claude Fable
That is the tension on this contract, and it is the same tension as last week at a wider price. The reasons to fade Pittsburgh are real and the market has applied them. The panel's read is that the market has now applied them about four cents too hard, because a team with continuity at quarterback, 18 seasons of head-coaching experience on the sideline, its best cornerback back at practice and a 4-2 record inside the division last season is not a 17.5-cent team in a division whose reigning champion won 10.
Cleveland Browns: The Trigger Fired, And The Number Held
A week ago this page listed four things that would change the panel's mind, and one of them was Cleveland naming a Week 1 starter. It said that Sanders or Gabriel winning the job with a clean preseason would push the Browns toward 13 or 14 percent, and that "Watson starting by default, after a season with no snaps, confirms the Browns near 8."
On Monday, August 24, Todd Monken named Deshaun Watson the starter for the September 13 opener at Jacksonville. "Deshaun gave us the best chance to move the ball and score points," Monken said, judged on the "full body of work over the course of offseason to training camp," and he said it is not a week-to-week decision. On Sanders: "Shedeur has closed that gap, for sure."
The panel, re-run with that fact on the card and no price in sight, came back at 8.25 percent. Six seats, all between 8 and 9. The market has the Browns at 3.5 cents, and the contract's daily closes since August 22 have bounced between 3 and 5 as 4,200 contracts traded on the one heavy day.
Nobody on the panel thinks Cleveland is good. Every seat said so in some form: a -100 point differential, 279 points scored which ranked 31st of 32, and a starter who has not taken a regular-season snap since 2024.
"Trusting Deshaun Watson to fix a 31st-ranked offense after playing zero snaps in 2025 is too speculative." — Gemini
The case is that 3.5 cents prices a team out of a race the card says is unusually open. Three separate facts still do the work. Cleveland's defense allowed 379 points last season, 14th in the league and the fewest of any team in the AFC North, ahead of Pittsburgh's 387 and Baltimore's 398. The Browns drew the easiest 2026 schedule in the division at .429. And they used two first-round picks, ninth and 24th, on offensive tackle Spencer Fano and receiver KC Concepcion.
There is one more, and it is the kind of detail a price this low tends to ignore. Cleveland's new head coach spent 2023 through 2025 as Baltimore's offensive coordinator. Todd Monken now game-plans twice a year against the offense he built, on the schedule of the team the market has as the favorite.
Eight percent is not a call that Cleveland wins the division. It is a call that in a division whose 2025 champion won it at +10, in a season where the Browns have the division's easiest schedule and last year allowed the division's fewest points, roughly one team in 12 is closer to right than one team in 29. The number the page said it would land on, if Watson got the job, is the number it landed on.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
Each model was shown the other five boards, anonymized, and invited to revise. Revision was optional. Three things moved.
Claude Sonnet moved the most, and it moved toward everyone else. It opened with Pittsburgh at 31 and Baltimore at 33, the only seat on the panel with the Steelers as a near co-favorite, on the argument that a full season of a healthy Rodgers under an experienced coach outweighs Baltimore's coaching turnover. After reading five boards that put the reigning champion third, it finished at Baltimore 41 and Pittsburgh 22, and cut Cleveland from 14 to 9. Its revised reasoning names the reason: "QB-adjusted point differential (+26 BAL vs +10 PIT) inverts the naive standings-based ranking more than any other single fact."
Gemini moved in the other direction on the same two teams. It opened with Cincinnati at 36 and Pittsburgh at 15, the most bullish Bengals number and the most bearish Steelers number on the panel, and finished at 31 and 20.
Claude Fable came down on Baltimore, from 44 to 39, and was the only seat to finish under 40 on the favorite. Its revised note carried the reason: "The other forecasters' arguments were the ones I already weighed; Forecaster E's Pittsburgh-co-favorite case leans on continuity, which the +10 differential and 26% repeat rate already discount, so I did not move" toward the co-favorite case, even as it nudged Pittsburgh from 21 to 23 and dropped the Ravens from 44 to 39 on installation risk it had called a below-50 problem, not a below-40 one, a round earlier.
What is striking is where the medians ended. Baltimore's did not move at all between rounds, 41 to 41. Cincinnati rose a point and a half, Pittsburgh half a point, Cleveland fell a quarter. Six seats that opened with a fourteen-point spread on Cincinnati and a sixteen-point spread on Pittsburgh closed to three and four. The board converged; it did not drift.
What Would Change The Panel's Mind
Three of last board's four triggers are still live, and one has resolved. The seats named the same three again, event-shaped and checkable, with the direction each pushes the number.
- Joe Burrow Misses Any Regular-Season Time. Still the single largest swing factor on the board. A confirmed Burrow absence pushes Cincinnati down toward 18 to 20 percent and moves most of it to Baltimore, with a smaller share to Pittsburgh. A clean September of full Burrow snaps pushes Cincinnati toward the 31 the two highest seats already have.
- Lamar Jackson Misses A Game Before Week 6. Baltimore's number is built on a 16-plus game Jackson season. An early absence drops the Ravens 8 to 10 points and splits the difference between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, because Baltimore's backup is Tyler Huntley and the offense behind him is a new install.
- Pittsburgh Loses Two Of Its First Three, Including Cincinnati At Pittsburgh In Week 3. Several seats flagged the September stretch as the read on whether Rodgers at 42 holds. That result pushes the Steelers down several points; Porter Jr. off the PUP list alongside Ramsey, with a sharp Rodgers through September, pushes them toward the high 20s.
- Resolved: Cleveland Named A Week 1 Starter. Watson, August 24. The page said that outcome confirms the Browns near 8. The re-scored board has them at 8.25.
When one of these fires, this page gets re-scored and the new board replaces the one above. That is what just happened.
When This Settles
| Settles | When the NFL declares an AFC North champion. Contracts close early on that declaration. |
| Expected Expiration | January 11, 2027 |
| Week 3, September 27, 2026 | Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, the first divisional game on the board |
| Week 15, December 20, 2026 | Baltimore at Pittsburgh |
| Week 16, December 27, 2026 | Cleveland at Baltimore |
| Week 17, December 31, 2026 | Baltimore at Cincinnati, Thursday night |
| Week 18, January 10, 2027 | Pittsburgh at Baltimore and Cleveland at Cincinnati, both division games, the day before expiration |
| Re-Scored | When the story moves. Board and panel numbers as of August 28, 2026. |
Read that table next to the schedule and the shape of this race is obvious: if the AFC North is close, it is settled in the last four weeks by these teams playing each other, and Baltimore plays a division game in every one of those four weeks, three of them against the two teams priced closest behind it. Every seat's stated path for the Ravens runs through that stretch, and every seat's stated way it fails is the same one: a slow Minter-and-Doyle start in September while a healthy Burrow sweeps the head-to-heads on the easier schedule and takes the tiebreaker.
What The Prices Mean For Fantasy Football Draft Boards
A division price is relative by construction. Win environments set fantasy football value, because teams the market expects to win feed their stars positive game scripts and red-zone volume while teams it expects to trail lean on garbage-time passing. Read that way, each price turns into a draft-table instruction:
- Baltimore At 47.5% is the market's best win environment in the division, and the panel agrees on the ranking even while calling the price rich. That supports the Lamar Jackson ecosystem broadly, and it is why the fantasy QB1 market treats him as a front-of-board name rather than a bounce-back gamble.
- Cincinnati At 33.5% is the leverage read. The market says rebound, not coin flip, yet drafters burned by 6-11 will hesitate on Bengals pass-catchers. Chase and Higgins are still the tandem, and if draft rooms stay anchored to last year's record while both the market and the panel price a rebound, that anchoring is exactly the gap our Sims and ownership projections quantify all season.
- Pittsburgh At 17.5% is the row where the panel is most generous relative to the market, and the fantasy read follows the panel rather than the price: a team whose quarterback was the only one in the division to play essentially every week last year is likelier to play from ahead than a 17.5-cent number implies.
- Cleveland At 3.5% is a fade of the environment, not of every player. The 14th-ranked defense that the models kept citing is the same fact that makes late-round Browns shares fine at cost; what the price argues against is building around anyone who needs positive script, and a Watson-led offense with no 2025 tape is the definition of one.
The same logic scales division by division, which is what our win totals as a fantasy signal guide and the full fantasy football prediction markets map walk through.
How A 47-Cent Contract Becomes 47%
The methodology is short. Kalshi division markets are CFTC-regulated event contracts, not sportsbook bets: each contract pays $1 or $0, so price in cents equals implied probability. Because exactly one team can win the division, the four prices should sum to about 100 cents. At pull time the live Yes books were Baltimore 47-48, Cincinnati 33-34, Pittsburgh 17-18 and Cleveland 3-4. The four asks sum to 104 cents and the four bids to 100, so buying all four Yes contracts costs more than the dollar they can pay between them, and selling all four collects exactly that dollar.
The week's price history is the story of this re-score. Baltimore's daily settlement price closed at 44 cents every day from August 19 through August 22. On August 23, 43,500 contracts traded on the Ravens alone, open interest went from 60,900 to 104,300 in a day, and the close moved to 46. It reached 47 on August 26 on another 6,100 contracts and 48 on August 27, and the book today is 47 bid, 48 ask. That is a real move: it came with volume, it came with new open interest, and it has held for two sessions. Pittsburgh went the other way over the same week, from a 19-cent close on August 22 through a one-day print at 14 on August 24 to 18 today. Cincinnati did not move a cent. Cleveland's closes bounced between 3 and 5 on thin trade, which is why this page reads its 3.5-cent midpoint rather than any single close.
Compare that to a sportsbook futures page, where the same four teams' implied probabilities routinely add up to well over 100 before you de-vig. Two honest caveats: Kalshi's taker fee, 0.07 times price times one minus price per contract, is largest in raw cents on coin-flip prices, but as a share of what you risk it lands hardest on longshots, about 6.7% of stake on Cleveland at 4 cents versus 3.5% on a 50-cent contract. Access is 18+, and state availability varies; as of August 2026 the platform's own eligibility screen is the thing to check rather than assuming.
A Worked Example: What Cincinnati At 34 Cents Actually Pays
Take the board's steadiest price and run the full math. A Yes contract on Cincinnati costs 34 cents at the ask, so the raw payout if the Bengals win the division is 66 cents of profit on 34 risked, a return of about 2.94 times the stake. The taker fee formula on that entry is 0.07 x 0.34 x 0.66, about 1.6 cents per contract, and Kalshi rounds each order's total fee up to the next cent: a single contract pays a full 2 cents while a 100-lot pays $1.58, so the true cost is roughly 35.6 cents at size and 36 on a one-lot. Your effective break-even is therefore about 35.6%, not 34%, and the fee-adjusted return works out closer to 2.81 times the stake. That 1.6-cent haircut is the honest price of a nearly vig-free board, and it is still a fraction of the overround a typical sportsbook futures page buries in the same four prices.
More on this: NFL 2026 on Kalshi: 49 Live Boards, 10 Days To Kickoff · AFC East Odds: Drake Maye Made The Super Bowl, Buffalo's Favored · Why Michael Whatley (R) Will Win the NC Senate Race · AFC South Odds: The 13-Win Champion Isn't The Favorite · NFC North Odds On Kalshi: The Champ Drew The NFL's Hardest Slate
The Bottom Line
The market and the panel agree on more than they disagree, and this week they agreed on direction: both moved toward Baltimore. Both have the Ravens first, both have Cincinnati second, both treat Pittsburgh's 10-7 title as the least repeatable thing in the division. The split is still about shape, and it got wider. The market has built a top-heavy board where two teams hold 81 cents of the 102 on offer. Six models that never saw a price built a flatter one, where the same two teams hold 70.5 and the bottom two hold 29.75.
The single sharpest number on this page is still Cleveland's, and it survived the one event that could have changed it. Three and a half cents against a panel that agreed, six seats out of six, on 8 or 9 percent, with the Week 1 starter now named. The second-sharpest is new: a favorite that the market repriced by 2 cents on 43,500 contracts in a day and by 4 on the week, and that six models, given every fact behind that trade and none of the price, declined to follow past 41.5.
Every number above gets graded against the settlement in January 2027, and the record goes on the public scoreboard whether it is right or wrong.
