Who is favored in 49ers vs Rams in Melbourne? The Rams, at 64 to 65 cents on Kalshi as of 4:55 a.m. ET on game day, September 10, on 1,078,625 contracts traded, while our price-blind AI prediction panel puts them at 55.5%, a nine-point gap the board below breaks down.
The San Francisco 49ers play the Los Angeles Rams at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday, September 10, the first regular-season NFL game ever staged in Australia. Kalshi prices the Rams to win at 64 cents to 65 cents.
We handed eight AI models the football data on this game and no prices, and asked each to price every Kalshi contract on it. Their median puts the Rams at 55.5%, nine points below the market's midpoint. The panel sits within a few points of Kalshi on how often the Rams win big and matches it on how many points get scored. The entire disagreement is about who wins a close game, and it turns on whether being the home team on the schedule is worth anything in Melbourne.
The Rams are the home team on paper and nowhere else. Neither club has played at the MCG, and the Rams take the field with body clocks still on Thursday evening; the 49ers have had a week to reset. Kickoff is 8:35 p.m. ET, which is Friday morning in Melbourne.
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What Is Home Field Worth When Nobody Is Home?
Since 2003 the NFL has played 66 regular-season games at neutral venues, and the designated home team lost more of them than it won. True home teams over the same seasons won 56.1% of their games by an average of 2.29 points. At a neutral site the schedule's home team has no edge left at all.
The NFL does not send teams abroad at random, so we conditioned on quality. Take the teams that were at least a field goal a game better than their opponent the previous season. At a true home field they won 67.4% of the time, by an average of six points. At a neutral site the same class went 10-9-1 and won by less than a point.
The Rams outscored opponents by 10.12 points a game last season and the 49ers by 3.88. That puts this game squarely in that class. The caveat is load-bearing: the neutral-site sample is 20 games, and the middle band of the same ledger runs the other way, so treat five points of expected margin as the outer bound of the claim rather than the claim.
One thing about this trip is in no ledger. As CBS Sports reported on September 1, the 49ers were scheduled to leave for Australia on September 2, with the Rams not leaving until the following week. If both clubs traveled as planned, the visitors get a week to adjust to a 17-hour shift and the schedule's home team lands little more than a day before it plays. Nothing in the neutral-site record resembles that.
The Board: Every Line Kalshi Quotes On This Game
Prices are Kalshi's bid and ask as of game day, September 10, 2026, fetched at 4:55 a.m. ET, about 16 hours before kickoff. Panel is the median of the eight seats' September 2 numbers, untouched since: the revised round on the winner, margin and combined-points rows, and the blind round on the 16 touchdown rows, which the seats did not revise. The contract volumes are cumulative. Gap is the panel's number minus the midpoint of the bid and ask.
Each seat saw both teams' scoring records from last season, current rosters, the injury feed and every priced player's game log, and no market number. After a blind round, each read the other seats' reasoning, anonymized, and could revise. All 864 calls went to a public grading ledger before this page existed and get marked right or wrong on September 11.
| Winner | Bid / Ask | Panel | Gap | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams Win | 64¢ / 65¢ | 55.5% | -9.0 | 1,078,625 |
| San Francisco 49ers Win | 35¢ / 36¢ | 44.5% | +9.0 | 1,192,498 |
| Margin | Bid / Ask | Panel | Gap | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams Win By More Than 1.5 | 62¢ / 63¢ | 51.5% | -11.0 | 29,731 |
| Rams Win By More Than 2.5 | 60¢ / 61¢ | 48.5% | -12.0 | 73,084 |
| Rams Win By More Than 3.5 | 51¢ / 52¢ | 45.1% | -6.4 | 386,071 |
| Rams Win By More Than 4.5 | 47¢ / 48¢ | 42.7% | -4.8 | 279,588 |
| Rams Win By More Than 5.5 | 43¢ / 46¢ | 40.0% | -4.5 | 90,380 |
| Rams Win By More Than 6.5 | 42¢ / 44¢ | 37.2% | -5.8 | 24,441 |
| Rams Win By More Than 7.5 | 36¢ / 37¢ | 34.4% | -2.1 | 8,338 |
| Rams Win By More Than 9.5 | 33¢ / 35¢ | 29.3% | -4.7 | 8,041 |
| Rams Win By More Than 10.5 | 29¢ / 30¢ | 26.9% | -2.6 | 2,683 |
| Rams Win By More Than 13.5 | 24¢ / 26¢ | 20.1% | -4.9 | 3,142 |
| Rams Win By More Than 14.5 | 20¢ / 21¢ | 18.1% | -2.4 | 1,662 |
| Rams Win By More Than 16.5 | 17¢ / 18¢ | 14.4% | -3.1 | 4,426 |
| Rams Win By More Than 17.5 | 15¢ / 16¢ | 12.8% | -2.7 | 3,533 |
| Rams Win By More Than 20.5 | 11¢ / 13¢ | 8.8% | -3.2 | 23,687 |
| 49ers Win By More Than 1.5 | 31¢ / 32¢ | 40.0% | +8.5 | 3,383 |
| 49ers Win By More Than 2.5 | 29¢ / 30¢ | 37.5% | +8.0 | 9,454 |
| 49ers Win By More Than 3.5 | 23¢ / 26¢ | 34.1% | +9.6 | 11,399 |
| 49ers Win By More Than 4.5 | 20¢ / 21¢ | 31.8% | +11.3 | 1,112 |
| 49ers Win By More Than 5.5 | 19¢ / 20¢ | 29.3% | +9.8 | 3,126 |
| 49ers Win By More Than 6.5 | 17¢ / 19¢ | 26.9% | +8.9 | 11,017 |
| 49ers Win By More Than 7.5 | 13¢ / 14¢ | 24.2% | +10.7 | 8,017 |
| 49ers Win By More Than 9.5 | 11¢ / 14¢ | 20.4% | +7.9 | 8,811 |
| 49ers Win By More Than 10.5 | 9¢ / 11¢ | 18.1% | +8.1 | 2,130 |
| 49ers Win By More Than 13.5 | 6¢ / 9¢ | 12.9% | +5.4 | 3,141 |
| 49ers Win By More Than 14.5 | 5¢ / 6¢ | 11.4% | +5.9 | 5,194 |
| Combined Points | Bid / Ask | Panel | Gap | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| More Than 27.5 | 94¢ / 95¢ | 92.8% | -1.7 | 7,254 |
| More Than 30.5 | 90¢ / 92¢ | 89.4% | -1.6 | 4,236 |
| More Than 33.5 | 86¢ / 88¢ | 85.0% | -2.0 | 2,283 |
| More Than 36.5 | 81¢ / 82¢ | 79.1% | -2.4 | 1,516 |
| More Than 39.5 | 75¢ / 76¢ | 72.4% | -3.1 | 2,553 |
| More Than 42.5 | 66¢ / 68¢ | 64.8% | -2.2 | 3,808 |
| More Than 45.5 | 57¢ / 59¢ | 57.5% | -0.5 | 2,940 |
| More Than 46.5 | 55¢ / 56¢ | 54.9% | -0.6 | 10,593 |
| More Than 47.5 | 51¢ / 52¢ | 52.4% | +0.9 | 54,001 |
| More Than 48.5 | 47¢ / 48¢ | 49.8% | +2.3 | 220,132 |
| More Than 49.5 | 45¢ / 46¢ | 47.0% | +1.5 | 39,966 |
| More Than 50.5 | 42¢ / 44¢ | 44.3% | +1.3 | 2,297 |
| More Than 51.5 | 38¢ / 40¢ | 41.6% | +2.6 | 1,821 |
| More Than 54.5 | 31¢ / 32¢ | 33.6% | +2.1 | 1,595 |
| More Than 57.5 | 24¢ / 25¢ | 26.4% | +1.9 | 3,766 |
| More Than 60.5 | 19¢ / 20¢ | 20.0% | +0.5 | 1,265 |
| More Than 63.5 | 14¢ / 15¢ | 14.6% | +0.1 | 502 |
| More Than 66.5 | 8¢ / 9¢ | 10.3% | +1.8 | 13,831 |
| More Than 69.5 | 6¢ / 7¢ | 7.1% | +0.6 | 8,357 |
| Touchdowns | Bid / Ask | Panel | Gap | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey Scores 1+ | 55¢ / 56¢ | 49.5% | -6.0 | 19,143 |
| Kyren Williams Scores 1+ | 51¢ / 52¢ | 49.5% | -2.0 | 9,819 |
| Puka Nacua Scores 1+ | 38¢ / 40¢ | 31.5% | -7.5 | 20,698 |
| Blake Corum Scores 1+ | 31¢ / 35¢ | 26.0% | -7.0 | 4,664 |
| Davante Adams Scores 1+ | 41¢ / 42¢ | 50.0% | +8.5 | 17,022 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. Scores 1+ | 19¢ / 20¢ | 25.0% | +5.5 | 12,971 |
| Mike Evans Scores 1+ | 29¢ / 30¢ | 26.0% | -3.5 | 9,279 |
| Brock Purdy Scores 1+ | 11¢ / 13¢ | 16.0% | +4.0 | 19,037 |
| Christian McCaffrey Scores 2+ | 15¢ / 17¢ | 15.0% | -1.0 | 11,936 |
| Kyren Williams Scores 2+ | 14¢ / 15¢ | 13.5% | -1.0 | 3,630 |
| Davante Adams Scores 2+ | 5¢ / 10¢ | 14.0% | +6.5 | 10,484 |
| Puka Nacua Scores 2+ | 1¢ / 9¢ | 8.0% | +3.0 | 12,061 |
| Blake Corum Scores 2+ | 3¢ / 5¢ | 4.0% | +0.0 | 4,368 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. Scores 2+ | 2¢ / 3¢ | 5.0% | +2.5 | 16,797 |
| Mike Evans Scores 2+ | 3¢ / 5¢ | 5.0% | +1.0 | 7,327 |
| Brock Purdy Scores 2+ | 1¢ / 2¢ | 2.0% | +0.5 | 32,274 |
Event contracts involve risk, and you can lose money trading them. Contracts are available to traders 18+ where Kalshi operates, on a CFTC-regulated exchange, and trading fees apply.*
Read the touchdown rows with one eye on the spread. Kyren Williams scoring once was the thin row on September 8, bid at 34 cents and offered at 55; game-day money has closed it to 51¢/52¢ on 9,819 contracts, and the panel's 49.5% now sits two points under a real price. Davante Adams's row was the widest quote on the board on September 2, at 19 cents; it is a cent wide on 17,022 contracts now, and the panel's 50% sits 8.5 points above it. The wide quotes left are Blake Corum scoring once at 31¢/35¢ and the 2+ rows for Puka Nacua at 1¢/9¢ and Adams at 5¢/10¢, so read those gaps as quote width. Trust the rows quoted a cent or two wide on real size, starting with the winner market, and check the two price columns on any row before you read its gap.
Every Seat's Number
| Seat | Blind round | After revision | Expected margin, LA | Expected combined points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable | 56.5% | 55.3% | +2.0 | 47.5 |
| Claude Opus | 59.9% | 57.5% | +2.7 | 47.5 |
| Claude Sonnet | 54.1% | 54.1% | +1.5 | 48.5 |
| GPT | 55.1% | 55.7% | +2.0 | 48.3 |
| Gemini | 48.5% | 53.0% | +1.5 | 46.5 |
| Grok | 52.7% | 54.2% | +1.5 | 48.5 |
| GLM | 58.3% | 57.6% | +2.5 | 56.0 |
| Kimi | 57.5% | 55.8% | +2.3 | 48.5 |
| Panel Median | 55.8% | 55.5% | +2.0 | 48.4 |
Every seat is graded against real market settlements, with records between 84% and 90% on at least 2,256 graded calls per seat to date. The running tally lives on the model verdict scoreboard.
GLM's combined-points figure of 56.0 sits well above every other seat and stays in the table because we do not delete numbers we dislike. The blend is a median, so the panel's 48.4 does not move either way.
What Moved Since September 5
The prices above were re-captured on game day, September 10, 2026, at 4:55 a.m. ET; the panel's numbers are its September 2 run, untouched. The prices here are compared with the September 8 capture, and the news record runs from September 5. Since September 8, 50 of the 62 rows have changed by at least a cent. The Rams' winner contract closed September 8 at 65¢ after trading 63¢ to 65¢, closed September 9 at 65¢ inside a 64¢ to 65¢ range, and is quoted 64¢ to 65¢ now, so the midpoint has drifted back up to 64.5¢ and the gap to the panel's 55.5% is nine points again, the width it opened at on September 2. The 49ers' contract has closed at 36¢ every day since September 7.
What did change is the size. On the morning of September 8 the two winner contracts had 787,445 contracts traded between them; now it is 2,271,123. Since that capture the Rams' side has turned over 753,951 contracts, 558,944 of them buyers lifting the offer, and the 49ers' side 729,728, 703,637 of them buyers. September 9 was the busiest day either contract has had, 311,902 contracts on the Rams and 402,267 on the 49ers. The largest block of the whole stretch went the other way from the flow: at 3:56 p.m. ET on September 8, sellers hit the Rams' bid for 150,078 contracts at 64¢ in about ten seconds, most of that day's volume, and the quote held at 64¢/65¢ through the hour. Takers bought both sides heavily, the 49ers side more so, and neither price moved. A board that absorbs 700,000 contracts of 49ers buying and a 150,000-contract Rams sale inside a two-cent band has made up its mind.
The margin ladder, which had drifted toward the 49ers at the edges through September 8, has since moved toward the Rams on most rungs and on every Rams rung from 7.5 up. Two moves matter. Rams by more than 4.5 had 3,273 contracts on it two days ago and has 279,588 now, and it repriced from 45¢/46¢ to 47¢/48¢ while Rams by more than 3.5, still the busiest margin rung at 386,071 contracts, held at 51¢/52¢. And the far end of the ladder, where the panel and the market were 1.1 points apart on September 8, is 3.2 points apart now, with the market above the panel on all eight of those rungs. The money has moved from the Rams winning to the Rams winning by more, which is the opposite of the panel's close-game argument. The 49ers' side is quoted a cent or two lower on most of its eleven rungs, so the average gap there widened from 8.0 points to 8.6 without the panel moving. The middle of the combined-points ladder did not move: over 47.5 is still 51¢/52¢ and over 48.5 still 47¢/48¢, the market's midpoint still crosses 50 cents between those two rungs, and the 14 totals rungs that did reprice moved a cent or two each way, none of them more than 3.1 points from the panel. Over 48.5 is now the fifth-busiest row on the page at 220,132 contracts, up from 13,082.
The touchdown rows are mostly markets now. Christian McCaffrey scoring once went from 56¢/58¢ to 55¢/56¢ as its volume went from 1,360 contracts to 19,143, Brock Purdy scoring once from 13¢/14¢ to 11¢/13¢, Blake Corum scoring once from 34¢/35¢ to 31¢/35¢, and Mike Evans scoring once from 27¢/31¢ to 29¢/30¢. Puka Nacua scoring once is 38¢/40¢, a cent wider than it was, and Davante Adams scoring once has not moved from 41¢/42¢ while tripling its volume. The wide quotes left are Corum scoring once at 31¢/35¢ and the 2+ rows for Nacua and Adams.
Off the price history, here is the dated roster and injury record for both teams since September 5. The official Week 1 designations are in it now: both clubs filed their final practice reports on Wednesday, September 9.
- The 49ers placed defensive lineman Sam Okuayinonu on injured reserve with a broken foot, ruled him out for Week 1, and left him home from the trip, per 49ers Webzone on September 6; ESPN's September 8 report on Collins, linked below, confirms the foot needed surgery.
- Nick Bosa did not practice and Christian McCaffrey stayed out of drills during the media viewing window at the 49ers' first Melbourne practice on Sunday, September 6 (Monday local time), while George Kittle, Mike Evans, Renardo Green and Jacob Cowing practiced, per 49ers Webzone on September 6.
- Bosa and McCaffrey were back on the field for the second practice on Monday, September 7 (Tuesday local time), with rookie defensive tackle James Thompson Jr. (hamstring) the lone absence, per 49ers Webzone on September 7.
- The 49ers' first official practice report of the season listed Thompson as a non-participant and nine players as limited, among them Bosa (knee), Kittle (Achilles), Alfred Collins (knee), Dre Greenlaw (Achilles) and Green (hamstring), with McCaffrey and Evans not on it, per 49ers Webzone on September 8.
- Defensive tackle Alfred Collins tore his patellar tendon at practice in Melbourne, needs surgery and is out for the season, Kyle Shanahan announced, per ESPN on September 8.
- The Rams ruled Aaron Donald out for the game, Sean McVay telling reporters "we're making a decision that we think is best for him and for our team," and McVay said Myles Garrett (knee) will be "ready to go," per NFL.com on September 8; Donald did not travel to Australia, per the Rams' injury updates on September 9, and whether he plays was its own Kalshi contract, on our Aaron Donald Week 1 page.
- The 49ers' final report on September 9 lists Collins as out and Thompson (hamstring) as questionable after a limited Wednesday practice; Bosa, Kittle, Greenlaw, Green, Luke Gifford, Gracen Halton, Romello Height and Kyle Juszczyk were limited with no game-status designation, per 49ers Webzone on September 9.
- The Rams' final report on September 9 lists Donald as out (rest), Jaylen Watson (toe) as limited with no designation, and Garrett, Grant Stuard (hamstring), Tyler Higbee, Alaric Jackson and Byron Young as full participants with no designation, per the official Week 1 injury report on therams.com, posted September 9.
- Neither starting quarterback, Brock Purdy or Matthew Stafford, appears on either team's final injury report of September 9, and Puka Nacua is not on the Rams' report, per the official Week 1 injury report on therams.com.
- The Rams were scheduled to fly to Melbourne on the evening of Tuesday, September 8 after their final practice at home, the arrival plan this page flagged on September 2, per The Sporting Tribune on September 8.
All four triggers the seats named on September 2 have now resolved. The Rams were set to fly Tuesday evening with no report of a change, which puts them on the ground about a day before kickoff, the item every seat priced. Donald is out, and the Rams' price did not move on it; the panel's case never rested on him. On the 49ers' side, McCaffrey and Evans are not on the final report at all, and Bosa and Kittle practiced limited all week but carry no game-status tag, the largest upward push the September 2 card had available to the 49ers, and the market did not move on that either. Nacua is off the Rams' report and his touchdown row sits at 38¢/40¢, still seven points above the panel. What the September 2 card did not carry is the cost of losing Collins and Okuayinonu, two defensive linemen, before the first snap, and that is the kind of thing a market that keeps paying 64 cents for the Rams can point to. The same series' 16-game Week 1 board, priced by a four-model August panel, has the Rams at 52.8% on this game, lower still. And the first of these boards has now been graded: on Patriots vs Seahawks the market was closer on the winner and the panel closer on 31 of the 46 lines, all 19 totals among them.
Where Do The Panel And The Market Split?
Read the gap column of the margin ladder from the bottom up.
From Rams by more than 7.5 up the ladder, the panel and the market are nearly the same board, an average of 3.2 points apart, and on every one of those rungs the market sits a few cents above the panel. The combined-points ladder is the same story: all 19 rungs land within 3.1 points of the market. Models that never saw a price rebuilt Kalshi's scoring distribution for this game from two teams' game logs.
Then look at the near rungs. Rams by more than 1.5 and by more than 2.5 are 11 and 12 points apart. Every rung on the 49ers' side of the ladder sits an average of 8.6 points above where it trades.
That is a single disagreement about one team's baseline, and it sits in the part of the distribution a couple of points of home field would move. Two or three points of margin barely touch the tails and move the middle enormously, which is why the two boards agree everywhere except in the band where a field goal decides the game. Whatever the market is paying for on the Rams, it is buying it entirely inside one score.
How Did The Eight Seats Settle On It?
Seven of the eight seats changed at least one number after reading the others. Gemini made the largest move, from the panel's only 49ers-favored margin to a Rams lean, after deciding it had double-counted the travel penalty against LA's underlying quality edge. Claude Sonnet held at 54.1% through both rounds, arguing that no historical neutral-site game resembles this trip, so the travel case is an extrapolation past the data. The blind median was 55.8% and the revised median 55.5%: the seats converged before they ever spoke to each other.
What Could Move The Price Before Kickoff?
Everything below was written on September 2, when the board was first pulled; the dated news since then is in the What Moved section above.
- The Rams' arrival date. If Los Angeles lands materially earlier than the plan CBS Sports reported, the travel asymmetry every seat cited shrinks and the panel's number climbs toward the market. Settled on September 8: the Rams' departure held to the reported plan, per the What Moved section above.
- Aaron Donald's status. Donald came out of retirement and sat out the Rams' August 31 practice. Asked on September 1 whether he could miss Week 1, Sean McVay told reporters, as CBS Sports quoted him: "Oh, yeah, absolutely. That could be a possibility." Donald active moves the Rams up; ruled out, the near rungs get cheaper still. Settled on September 8: Donald was ruled out and did not travel, per the What Moved section above.
- San Francisco's injury list. Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Mike Evans and Nick Bosa, who is coming off an ACL, were all on the injury feed the seats saw on September 2, before any official practice report existed. Three or four of them active is the largest upward push available to the 49ers' side of the ladder. All four practiced on September 7, and none of the four carries a designation on the September 9 final report.
- Puka Nacua's injury. His touchdown contract traded at 41¢/43¢ on September 2, 38¢/39¢ on September 8 and 38¢/40¢ on game day, against a panel median of 31.5%. He is not on the Rams' final injury report.
Contracts settle on the final score late Thursday night ET, which is Friday afternoon in Melbourne. One wrinkle on the winner market: per the contract terms, a tie resolves at $0.50 for each team, while the margin contracts have no such clause, so a draw loses both sides of every margin rung.
The Bottom Line
The most expensive row on this board is not the one everybody will look at.
The winner market is where the volume is, and everyone will check it first. The widest disagreements on books with real volume sit one rung away, on the Rams winning by more than 1.5 points and by more than 2.5. Those contracts are bid at 62 and 60 cents against panel medians of 51.5% and 48.5%, both on books quoted a cent wide.
The quieter row says more. The 49ers winning by more than 7.5 points is offered at 14 cents. The panel puts it at 24.2%: the market treats a 49ers win by more than a touchdown as roughly a one-in-seven outcome, and the panel as closer to one in four.
Those rows are the whole argument. If the neutral-site record means what it appears to mean, the Rams are a much smaller favorite than the board says and a 49ers win by a touchdown is an ordinary Thursday. If it is 20 games of noise dressed up as a mechanism, the Rams are simply the better team, the market has this right, and the panel gave away nine cents on the biggest line on the board.
September 11 settles it either way, and the answer goes on the public scoreboard. Everything here is a set of model estimates about a football game, graded in the open, not advice and not a promise.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Matthew Stafford photo by Sewageboy, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; George Kittle photo by All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
More on this: 49ers vs Rams: Someone Bet Six Figures At Midnight · 49ers vs Rams Kalshi Player Props: Who Gets Fed In Melbourne · 49ers vs Rams Props: Who Gets Fed In Melbourne · Rams 49ers Receiving Yards: Who Got A Line · 49ers vs Rams Picks: The Home Team Flies In Last
