The NFL season was seven and a half hours from its first snap at 12:51 p.m. ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2026. In that minute, a buyer, or a group of them, took 99,984 contracts on Elijah Arroyo scoring the first touchdown of the New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks game. They paid 3 cents apiece. Arroyo is Seattle's second tight end, a second-year player who caught 15 passes last season, and his contract is the long-shot kind: three cents buys a dollar if he scores first, and nothing if anyone else does. That one second put roughly $3,000 on the table to win about $100,000. It also made a 3-cent contract the most traded name on a board that lists Rhamondre Stevenson, Jadarian Price and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Prices as of Wednesday, September 9, 2026, 4:47 p.m. ET, about three and a half hours before kickoff.
The Patriots vs Seahawks first TD odds below cover every one of Kalshi's 23 contracts for tonight's game, each set beside the same player's first-touchdown-scorer price at up to 24 sportsbooks, in one table. Before the table, two things need saying: why a first-touchdown contract is priced so differently from the anytime version of the same player, and why tonight's first drive runs through backs who were not the starters when these two teams met in February. The Arroyo trade, and whether anyone should follow it, comes after the numbers, because the tape only makes sense once you know what a 3-cent price is supposed to mean.
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Why First Touchdown Is Its Own Market
A Kalshi first-touchdown contract pays $1 if the named player scores the game's first touchdown and nothing otherwise; if nobody scores one, the "No Touchdown" contract pays instead, and a player who dresses but never takes a snap settles at his pre-game price rather than zero, which matters tonight for Seattle's third back. The order mechanics live on our how to bet NFL on Kalshi guide, and the general shape of Kalshi's player markets is on Kalshi player props.
The number worth doing yourself is the ratio of the first-touchdown ask to the anytime ask, because it says how much of a player's scoring chance the market thinks lives on the first few drives. Stevenson costs 45 cents to score at least once tonight and 13 cents to score first, a ratio of 29 percent. Price is at 30 percent, Smith-Njigba 26, and the board mostly sits between 25 and 30. The outlier is Holani at 23 percent, a first-touchdown ask of 7 cents against an anytime ask of 30. Read plainly, the market thinks Holani's touchdowns come later in the game than everyone else's, which is the opposite of what a goal-line role on the opening drive would look like. Nothing that happens after the first touchdown matters to this contract, which is why anytime-touchdown reasoning, and most of the usage work on our Patriots vs Seahawks Kalshi player props page, only partly transfers: a back who gets the fourth-quarter carries on a 3.5-point favorite is worth a lot in the anytime market and nothing here. That 23 percent is the number the rest of this page argues with.
The First Drive Runs Through Backs Who Were Not Starting In February
Both teams open the season with a running back situation that did not exist when Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX in February, and first-touchdown contracts are unusually sensitive to that, because the first drive is scripted and the scripted plays go to the players the coaches trust.
New England's change happened Tuesday afternoon. TreVeyon Henderson, who scored nine rushing touchdowns as a rookie, missed all three practices and was ruled out with an ankle injury, per the Patriots' injury report analysis published at 4:51 p.m. ET on September 8. Center Ben Brown is out with a knee. That leaves Stevenson as the lead back, with Lan Larison or Hassan Haskins elevated from the practice squad behind him and Corey Kiner, in New England for about a week after arriving from Arizona, as the third back, per the same report. Stevenson's 13-cent contract is the most expensive on the board, and a first-drive back on a team the books expect to score about 20 points is the market's reason.
Seattle's change happened over eight months. Zach Charbonnet, who scored 12 rushing touchdowns last season, is on the physically-unable-to-perform list after a January ACL tear, and Kenneth Walker III, that game's most valuable player, signed with Kansas City in March. The first-round rookie Jadarian Price is the early-down back. On September 3, NBC Sports relayed The Athletic's Andrew Destin reporting that George Holani, the back that report calls Seattle's best pass protector, may take the third-down, short-yardage and goal-line work. That is one beat report, and it is the reason the gap between Price at 12 cents and Holani at 7 is the row I keep coming back to. Seattle is the favorite: the Seahawks sit at 61 to 62 cents to win on Kalshi's game market, a 3.5-point favorite on the sportsbooks' live odds screen, where you can shop the number across every major book, with a total of 44.5. The team expected to score about 24 points gets the extra red-zone trip, and whichever Seattle back stands on the field inside the 10 on that trip owns the first-touchdown case.
The Board: All 23 Kalshi First Touchdown Contracts Against The Sportsbooks
Kalshi prices in cents, yes bid / yes ask; the ask is what a buyer pays now, and a contract pays $1 if the player scores the game's first touchdown. "Anytime ask" is the same player's Kalshi price to score at least once, for scale. Every price is shown as what it costs to collect $100 if the player scores first: on Kalshi that is the ask plus the trade fee, and at a sportsbook it is the stake its first-touchdown-scorer price requires. The sportsbook columns come from the OddsShopper board at 4:49 p.m. ET, the cheapest of the up to 24 books that post each name, with DraftKings beside it for scale. Of the 23 contracts, 21 have both a bid and an ask; Kyle Williams and No Touchdown are quoted at 0 bid, 1 ask, which is a displayed market, not a real quote.
| Player | Kalshi first TD (bid / ask) | Kalshi cost of a $100 payout, fee included | Kalshi anytime ask | Best sportsbook cost of a $100 payout | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE, RB) | 12 / 13¢ | $13.80 | 45¢ | $13.33 (Caesars) | $14.29 |
| Jadarian Price (SEA, RB) | 10 / 12¢ | $12.74 | 40¢ | $11.33 (Underdog) | $13.33 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, WR) | 9 / 10¢ | $10.64 | 39¢ | $10.53 (PointsBet) | $11.76 |
| A.J. Brown (NE, WR) | 7 / 9¢ | $9.58 | 36¢ | $8.70 (Circa) | $9.09 |
| George Holani (SEA, RB) | 6 / 7¢ | $7.46 | 30¢ | $9.09 (Onyx Odds; DraftKings and FanDuel match) | $9.09 |
| Romeo Doubs (NE, WR) | 1 / 6¢ | $6.40 | 24¢ | $4.86 (Underdog) | $5.26 |
| Hunter Henry (NE, TE) | 5 / 6¢ | $6.40 | 24¢ | $4.81 (Underdog) | $5.88 |
| AJ Barner (SEA, TE) | 5 / 6¢ | $6.40 | 24¢ | $6.18 (ProphetX) | $7.69 |
| Rashid Shaheed (SEA, WR) | 5 / 6¢ | $6.40 | 21¢ | $5.26 (theScore) | $6.25 |
| Cooper Kupp (SEA, WR) | 5 / 6¢ | $6.40 | 21¢ | $5.36 (ProphetX) | $7.14 |
| Drake Maye (NE, QB) | 4 / 5¢ | $5.34 | 18¢ | $4.35 (Onyx Odds) | $4.35 |
| Seahawks D/ST | 3 / 4¢ | $4.27 | 14¢ | no first-TD line | no line |
| Patriots D/ST | 3 / 4¢ | $4.27 | 12¢ | no first-TD line | no line |
| Elijah Arroyo (SEA, TE) | 2 / 3¢ | $3.21 | 11¢ | $2.78 (FanDuel) | $3.23 |
| Corey Kiner (NE, RB) | 2 / 3¢ | $3.21 | 11¢ | $2.63 (Circa) | $2.78 |
| Emanuel Wilson (SEA, RB) | 2 / 3¢ | $3.21 | 13¢ | $2.63 (Circa) | $3.85 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE, WR) | 2 / 3¢ | $3.21 | 11¢ | $2.44 (Onyx Odds) | $2.44 |
| Sam Darnold (SEA, QB) | 1 / 2¢ | $2.14 | 8¢ | $1.96 (Unibet) | $2.78 |
| Mack Hollins (NE, WR) | 1 / 2¢ | $2.14 | 8¢ | $1.96 (Circa) | $2.17 |
| Eli Raridon (NE, TE) | 1 / 2¢ | $2.14 | 7¢ | $1.44 (ProphetX) | $1.64 |
| Montorie Foster Jr. (SEA, WR) | 1 / 2¢ | $2.14 | 6¢ | $1.16 (Circa) | $1.64 |
| Kyle Williams (NE, WR) | 0 / 1¢ | $1.07 | 7¢ | $1.32 (Circa) | $1.64 |
| No Touchdown | 0 / 1¢ | $1.07 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
The row that decides how to read the whole table is Holani's. Kalshi charges its fee on the trade rather than inside the price, 7 cents on each dollar of price-times-one-minus-price, so 100 Holani contracts at 7 cents cost $7 plus 46 cents in fee, $7.46 all in, and pay $100 if he scores first; the formula is on our Kalshi fees page. No sportsbook sells a $100 Holani payout for less than $9.09, DraftKings and FanDuel included, so that is the floor on the other side. Among the names with a real first-drive role, Holani is the only one the exchange sells cheaper than every book, by about $1.60 per $100 of payout, and he is also the back the one available beat report puts on the goal line. Kyle Williams is technically cheaper on Kalshi too, but a contract with a 0-cent bid has no buyer behind it; that is a displayed price, not a market.
Who Bought 100,000 Arroyo Contracts At 12:51 P.M.
Arroyo's contract has traded 209,596 contracts since it listed on September 2, which is 21 percent of everything that has ever traded on this board and more than Stevenson, Price and Holani combined. Open interest sits a hair above that, meaning not one of those contracts has been sold back. Every fill but four was a buyer paying the offered price: 87,405 contracts at 2 cents, 122,187 at 3. The biggest single second on the tape came at 12:51:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, when three fills of 66,666, 25,520 and 7,798 contracts printed at 3 cents inside the same instant. Whoever it was had company earlier: 22,186 contracts went through at 2 cents at 11:03 p.m. ET on Tuesday, in an hour that took 27,314 in all.
In payout terms, the 12:51 position came with about $200 in fees on top of the contract price, and it returns about 31 times the money, fee included, if Arroyo scores the first touchdown. What the trade did not do is move the price. The contract was 2 bid, 3 ask before the sweep and is 2 bid, 3 ask now, because the offer at 3 cents was deep enough to fill 100,000 contracts without anyone lifting the next penny. The sportsbooks did not follow either: FanDuel and Circa still sell a $100 Arroyo payout for $2.78, and DraftKings for $3.23, both within half a dollar of the $3.21 Kalshi charges once the fee is added.
The football behind the ticket is thin. Arroyo caught 15 passes for 179 yards and one touchdown as a rookie, per Yahoo Sports' Patriots preview of the Seahawks, which lists him as the second pass-catching tight end behind AJ Barner with Eric Saubert also in the rotation. Barner, the starter, costs 6 cents on this board and was a full participant in practice after an oblique issue. A second tight end scoring the first touchdown of a game is not a strange outcome; a defense that has spent its week on Smith-Njigba, Kupp and the two backs can lose the backup tight end on a play-action shot on the first scripted drive, and that is presumably the thesis. It is a thesis about one play, and I cannot tell you who held it or whether one account or several stood behind the prints. The tape shows a taker buying yes at 3 cents and says nothing about why.
What the tape says: every Arroyo contract ever traded is still being held, and 100,000 of them arriving in one second did not move the price a penny.
The board's other big money went to a Patriot. A.J. Brown, who arrived from Philadelphia in a June trade, has a contract that has traded 177,134 contracts, 139,024 of them at 9 cents, and the 2 p.m. ET hour on Wednesday took 50,296 of them, with one second at 2:04:26 taking five fills between 5,000 and 10,467 contracts, all buyers. Brown's ask held at 9 cents through the whole 2 p.m. hour, with a 7-cent bid underneath, and 9 cents plus fee is $9.58 per $100 of payout against $8.70 at Circa and $9.09 at DraftKings. The Brown buyers paid more than the three books I can name, $9.58 against $8.70 at Circa, $9.09 at DraftKings and $9.52 at FanDuel; the Arroyo buyer paid about what the books wanted. Neither told the price anything it did not already know, and the reader who arrived hoping the tape would point at tonight's scorer should leave with the opposite lesson: 100,000 contracts on a 3-cent player is a big lottery ticket, not information.
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Where The Exchange Is Cheaper, And Where The Books Are
Buy every contract on this board at the ask and you pay $1.16 for a payout that can only ever be $1, because exactly one contract settles yes. That 16 cents is the exchange's total markup before the fee, and the same exercise at DraftKings, across the 29 names it prices, comes to $1.27; FanDuel is $1.26 across 28 names, and Circa, the sharpest book on the screen, is $1.18 across 27. Once the fee is added, the same basket costs about $1.24 on Kalshi, clear of both big books and six cents behind Circa. Where that markup sits differs name by name, and the name-by-name answer is the only one that matters when you are buying one contract.
The exchange is cheaper on the running backs than the two biggest books, and only on Holani is it cheaper than all of them. Stevenson at 13 cents is $13.80 per $100 of payout with the fee, against $13.33 at Caesars and $14.29 at DraftKings and FanDuel. Price at 12 cents is $12.74 with the fee, cheaper than the $13.33 DraftKings and FanDuel want but dearer than the $11.33 at Underdog. Smith-Njigba at 10 cents lands at $10.64, within a dime of PointsBet's $10.53 and about a dollar under DraftKings' $11.76. Holani, walked through above, is the one name with a first-drive role where the exchange beats every book.
The books are cheaper on the tight ends and the second receivers, and the gap is not small. Hunter Henry costs 6 cents on Kalshi, $6.40 with the fee, and Underdog sells the same $100 payout for $4.81, DraftKings for $5.88. Kupp, Shaheed and Barner all cost the same 6 cents on the exchange, and the best sportsbook price on each is between $5.26 and $6.18 per $100 of payout. Douglas, whom I wrote up separately as one of the longer shots on the anytime board, is 3 cents here, $3.21 with the fee, against $2.44 at the best book. The pattern is that Kalshi's buyers have pushed the middle of the board, the 6-cent tier, up to a flat price the books do not agree with. If the player you want is a tight end or a third receiver, the first-touchdown-scorer odds screen shows every book's price and the sportsbook is the cheaper venue. If you want a back, the exchange is.
Eleven names on the sportsbook boards have no Kalshi contract at all, and three of them matter tonight. Tory Horton, questionable with a hamstring injury and limited in all three practices per the Seahawks' Week 1 injury report, costs $2.44 per $100 of payout at Circa and is unlisted on the exchange. Saubert, the third tight end, is 99 cents per $100 at DraftKings and unlisted, and so is Larison, the back the Patriots may elevate for the night. Romeo Doubs, the free-agent receiver New England signed in March, went the other way: his contract appeared on Kalshi on Wednesday afternoon and is quoted 1 bid, 6 ask on 3,825 contracts of volume, which is a spread wide enough that the ask tells you little about what he is worth.
More on this game: Patriots vs Seahawks Kalshi Player Props: Seattle Gives Up Catches, Not Yards · Patriots vs Seahawks Prediction: AI vs Kalshi on All 46 Lines (Seattle 62¢ to win) · Patriots vs Seahawks Picks: The Champs Aren't The Same Team · NFL Week 1 Kalshi Player Props: Six Contracts That Stick Out · Kalshi NFL Picks
What Moves These Prices Before 8:20 P.M.
The inactive list lands at 6:50 p.m. ET, and three Seattle names on it move this board. Nick Emmanwori, the second-year safety, is questionable with an ankle injury after three limited practices; coach Mike Macdonald said he "was able to do more in Monday's practice than he has previously," per the Seahawks' report. If he sits, the middle of the field where Henry's 6-cent contract earns its targets stays open, which is the same argument for Henry that runs through the anytime market, and Ty Okada, the other safety, is already out with a hamstring injury. Emanuel Wilson practiced in full and should dress; if he dresses and never takes a snap, his 3-cent contract settles at its pre-game price rather than zero, the clause most readers have never had to use. Horton has no contract, so his status only moves the target shares of the Seahawks who do. New England's side is settled: Stevenson takes the first-drive carries, with an elevated back and Kiner behind him.
The other mover is the coin toss, because the team that receives gets the first scripted drive. Kalshi's expiration on these contracts is set for after the game, so they are still quoted once the ball is in the air and a reader watching the toss can act after it; check whether your sportsbook closes its first-touchdown market at kickoff.
Here is where I land, writing at 5 p.m. ET with the board a little over three hours from its first snap. The market has priced tonight's first touchdown as a two-back question, Stevenson and Price, with Smith-Njigba the only receiver within reach, and I do not disagree with the ordering. Where I disagree is 5 cents below it. The 23 percent ratio on Holani says the market read the same September 3 report I did and decided his touchdowns come late, on third downs and short-yardage snaps that an opening drive may never reach. That is a fair objection, and a six-day-old beat note is thin ground. But the goal-line carry is the highest-leverage first-touchdown snap in the game whenever the drive gets there, and the exchange sells the back that report puts on it for $7.46 per $100 while no sportsbook on our screen goes under $9.09, the only all-book gap on the board. If I am buying one first-touchdown contract tonight it is his, at the ask, knowing a 7-cent contract loses 93 times in 100 by its own price. I am not following the Arroyo money. A 3-cent contract that absorbed nearly 100,000 contracts of buying without moving is a market that priced the news before the news arrived, and the sportsbooks' unchanged $2.78 says the same thing from the other side of the street. Re-run the arithmetic at whatever price you are offered after 6:50 p.m.; the inactives are the last thing that changes these numbers before the game does.
Try it on the whole Week 1 card. OS Pro lines up every book's first-touchdown and anytime-touchdown price against a fair, de-vigged probability and flags the name priced in your favor before you place it. The trial is free for 7 days; after that, NESEAFIRST20 is worth 20% off the first payment on OS Pro or OS Core.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices as of Wednesday, September 9, 2026, 4:47 p.m. ET, and sportsbook prices from the OddsShopper board at 4:49 p.m. ET; all of them will keep moving until these markets settle after the September 9, 2026 game. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state). OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Betting involves risk; contracts can go to zero. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
