Week 4 kicks off with breakfast ball from London, and by the time Sunday Night Football wraps up, 14 games will have come and gone. Three weeks of tape gets us closer to separating the real red-zone roles from the noise, but a few of them might already be carved in stone.
That's the common thread of this card: who actually gets the ball when the field shrinks. I went through every carry inside the 10 and every target inside the 20 from Weeks 1 through 3, lined it up against Kalshi's touchdown board, checked the books, bet a few there, adjusted for '25 roles for good measure, and found some goodness I think can be deployed with confidence.
Three plays, ordered from the shortest price to the longest, with every book's number laid out next to Kalshi's so you can grab the best one. The last one is the one I like the most.
Play #1: Arizona's Red Zone Runs Through One Guy, 38¢ (+152 Effective)
I backed Trey McBride in Week 2 and he cashed, he came up empty in Week 3, and I'm still playing with house money, so back to the well we go. He's been targeted 34 times through three weeks, 28% of Jacoby Brissett's throws, and eight of those targets came inside the 20, three more than anyone else on the roster. Both of his touchdowns came from point-blank range, a 3-yarder in the opener and a 2-yarder in Week 2, and he's played 80%, 88% and 91% of the snaps.
The Giants have been generous through the air, allowing seven passing touchdowns and the fourth-worst EPA per dropback in the league. When Arizona gets close, the ball goes to the tight end, and New York hasn't shown it can stop that kind of target.
DraftKings has McBride at +160, FanDuel at +150 and Caesars at +148. Kalshi's 38¢ works out to +152 after the fee, a hair behind DraftKings, so grab whichever number is higher when you click in.
Play #2: Kansas City's Soft Spot Lines Up Inline, 34¢ (+181 Effective)
Brock Bowers missed the first two weeks with a knee injury, and Las Vegas came back from that layoff by throwing him the ball like it owed him money. He saw 13 of Kirk Cousins' 38 targets against New Orleans (no other Raider had more than four), caught 10 of them for 116 yards and scored from the 4, all while playing 79% of the snaps in his first game back. Three of those 13 targets came inside the 20.
Kansas City's defense has been stingy overall, but look at who's beaten it through the air: the Chiefs have allowed two passing touchdowns all season, and both went to tight ends, Evan Engram from 19 yards out in Week 1 and Tyler Warren from the 1 in Week 2. The Raiders are coming off a 35-point day, and the offense is built to funnel its red-zone looks to one guy.
DraftKings has Bowers at +190, Caesars at +187, FanDuel at +185 and BetMGM at +145. Kalshi's 34¢ works out to +181 after the fee, a few ticks behind DraftKings at the moment, so shop this one. One healthy game is a small sample, and if that knee flares up in practice this week, I'm off this play.
Play #3: Tennessee's Goal Line Belongs to the Quarterback, 12¢ (+685 Effective)
Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts... Cam Ward? What if I told you Tennessee has run the ball five times from inside the 5 this season, and Cam Ward has three of those carries? Would that pique your interest? Oh, and both of his carries from the 1 went for touchdowns against Philadelphia in Week 2, one on a sneak and one on a scramble, and he's taken all four of his red-zone carries from inside the 10.
None of this is an accident. Brian Daboll is Tennessee's offensive coordinator, the same guy who turned Josh Allen loose in Buffalo and got Jaxson Dart murdered in New York. And in a Daboll offense, quarterbacks run. Sometimes to their detriment.
The backfield behind him is banged up, with Tony Pollard (foot) and Tyjae Spears (ankle) both limited in practice this week. Baltimore has allowed five rushing touchdowns, tied for third-most in the league, and four of them came from the 3-yard line or closer.
DraftKings, FanDuel and Caesars all have Ward at +600. Kalshi's 12¢ works out to +685 after the fee, the widest gap on this card. Tennessee has scored 37 points in three games and there's been chatter about Ward's job security, so this is a true quarter-unit swing: it misses far more often than it hits, and the price is what pays for that.
How I'd Size It
A half unit each on McBride and Bowers, and a quarter unit on the long shot. The two tight ends are the focal points of their offenses near the goal line, so they get the bigger stakes. Ward is the way-off-the-board swing, and the stake reflects that. All three plays come from different games, so one bad game script can't sink the whole card.
The Fee Math
Always a reminder for the fine folks newer to playing on Kalshi: they charge a taker fee of 7% of price times one-minus-price, rounded to the cent. In plain English, for McBride's 38¢ you're adding on 1.65¢, so you're really paying 39.65¢. On Bowers' 34¢ it's 1.57¢, so 35.57¢, and on Ward's 12¢ it's just 0.74¢, so 12.74¢. The fee peaks at even money, which is why the long shot gives up the least of its edge to it. Kalshi rounds up at settlement, so treat every effective number here as a ceiling and not a floor.
Also, these are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. And just like at a sportsbook, this is a constantly moving market, so all prices are subject to change. Check actives and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff, make sure you're getting the best price possible, and enjoy the show.
The Official Card
All three contracts sit on their game's touchdown tab on Kalshi. Prices are accurate as of Friday, October 2, 2026, 8:15 PM ET, with the effective column properly accounting for the taker fee:
| Contract | Price | After fee | Effective | Best book | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride Yes 1+ TD | 38¢ | 39.65¢ | +152 | +160 (DraftKings) | ARI at NYG |
| Brock Bowers Yes 1+ TD | 34¢ | 35.57¢ | +181 | +190 (DraftKings) | KC at LV |
| Cam Ward Yes 1+ TD | 12¢ | 12.74¢ | +685 | +600 (DraftKings) | TEN at BAL |
For the record, I locked in Bowers at +190 and McBride at +160, so Kalshi's +181 and +152 weren't far off the market on either one, and by my numbers Kalshi's price is still +EV on all three plays.
Bowers' contract has traded about 9,600 so far, McBride's about 8,600 and Ward's about 7,500, and each shows thousands of contracts sitting at the quoted price. These markets get a lot busier by Sunday morning, so the prices could move either way.
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Final Thoughts
Two tight ends who get the ball when the field shrinks, and a quarterback who has turned Tennessee's 1-yard line into his own personal sneak drill. McBride's ticket misses about three times out of five, Bowers' about two times out of three, and Ward's misses nearly seven times out of eight, so size them like it.
As always: half and quarter units, no chasing in the late window, and no hero sizing on a Sunday. Trade smart, trade responsibly, and enjoy the slate.
— Lindy
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