Prices as of Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:14 p.m. ET. Record compiled from 40 dated sources; see the sourced record file for every citation.
In May, DraftKings wrote a $250,000 check to New Leadership PAC, a Democratic super PAC whose project this summer is Dan Koh, the former Marty Walsh chief of staff running for Seth Moulton's open House seat on the North Shore. MassLive reported the check on August 2, with filings showing DraftKings CEO Jason Robins had given Koh's campaign the individual maximum and DraftKings employees at least $35,000 more. By August 19 the Boston Globe put the PAC's spending for Koh at more than $870,000.
Koh and DraftKings go back a decade. In 2016, as Massachusetts decided how to regulate daily fantasy sports, Koh ran Walsh's City Hall and, per an ESPN Outside the Lines report of April 12, 2016, spoke with Robins "every couple of weeks." Koh's own description of the job: "How can we make you feel welcome, and how can we help grow a fast growing company in Boston?" Robins also maxed to Koh's 2018 congressional run, Boston.com reported in October 2017.
Rival John Beccia fused the two facts for MassLive on August 2: "This is why people hate politics: a company that Dan Koh went to bat for a decade ago is now spending a quarter of a million dollars to try to get him into Congress." He followed with a digital ad titled "Fine Print." Koh's campaign, through spokesperson Olivia Brandon, said it has taken "not a dime" from corporate PACs. On Kalshi, where a price in cents is a probability, Koh trades near 81.5 cents, a four-in-five favorite in a six-way race nobody has independently polled.
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The Board
As of Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:14 p.m. ET (cents = probability; Kalshi shows bid and ask, Polymarket the midpoint):
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Reads as |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Koh | 80 / 83¢ | 80.5¢ | about 81% (≈-440 in sportsbook terms) |
| Tram Nguyen | 13 / 15¢ | 13.3¢ | about 14% (≈+614) |
| John Beccia | 2 / 5¢ | 1.9¢ | about 2 to 3% |
The venues agree today. On Polymarket, Koh closed August 1 at 66 cents, climbed through the poll release, the Biden-Harris ad and the $870,000 headline to 88.5 cents on August 22, and held there through August 24; on Kalshi the week's biggest print was 3,295 contracts bought at 87 cents on August 22. Then Ayanna Pressley and Lori Trahan endorsed Nguyen on August 24, two days into early voting, Sludge published the next morning, and Koh gave back eight cents on Polymarket while Nguyen rose from 10.8 to 13.3. Kalshi holds the thicker book, 22,386 contracts open on Koh, though only seven traded in the 24 hours before this snapshot as of August 25, 2026. A moneyline of -440 means risking $440 to win $100; Nguyen at +614 pays about $6 on a $1 stake.
What The Models Think
We also asked a panel of AI models the same question, six of the panel's eight seats running this board, without showing them the price, only the sourced record below. Their blended middle answer put Dan Koh at 63.5 percent, well below the 81.5-cent market, and the widest gap between any two models was six points. The reasons repeated across all six: Koh's roughly 10-to-1 money edge makes him the favorite, but the only recent poll is his own, a quarter of its respondents were undecided, and a six-way field with late endorsements gathering behind one rival is where a plurality slips. One model put it this way: "Koh leads the only recent poll and holds a roughly 10:1 final-stretch cash edge, but every poll is campaign-sponsored and late endorsements consolidated behind Nguyen."
The panel had only the record; the market has real money behind it. Model estimates are estimates, not predictions of fact.
How A Safe Seat Became A Money Race
Moulton left to run for Senate against Ed Markey, and six Democrats filed for September 1: Koh, state Rep. Tram Nguyen, Beccia, former state Rep. Jamie Belsito, Mariah Lancaster and Beth Andres-Beck. The seat has been Democratic since 1989, so the primary is the election. Massachusetts runs a semi-closed primary, meaning unenrolled voters can take a Democratic ballot, and the Gloucester Daily Times counted roughly 320,000 voters on August 24, nearly half unenrolled. September 1 is also Boston's mass lease-turnover day, which political scientist John Cluverius told Courthouse News on August 18 "could make it harder to mobilize young people."
The money is lopsided. Koh reported more than $6.8 million raised as of August 12 and about $2 million on hand, per the Globe on August 24; Nguyen raised $685,130 and has about $190,000 left. Beccia has self-loaned nearly $4 million. Rick Jakious, Moulton's former chief of staff, quit in April with the race's epigraph: "running for Congress requires access to significant wealth."
Outside money and a price can disagree, as a super PAC buying fourth place in Alaska showed, and in New Hampshire's First District the money spent a day catching up to the poll. MA-6 has the money and no independent poll for it to catch.
Koh's cash put Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on camera in an August TV spot. Walsh, who endorsed Koh in December 2025 and runs the NHL players' union that paid Koh about $180,000 in 2024 for technology consulting (Globe, April 1 and August 16), stumped with him in August: "he's not a freshman." Nguyen's reply, in Roll Call on August 21: "We keep electing D.C. insiders … playing by the old playbook." Belsito, in the same story: "The Democratic Party is broken, figuratively and financially."
The Koh check sits apart from DraftKings' wider 2026 political operation. Sportico reported on June 30 that DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics and Bet365 gave more than $40 million to Win for America, which funds a PAC for each party whose ads never mention gaming money; DraftKings and FanDuel disclosed $19.5 million each. WBUR reported on May 28 that the effort is active in at least 11 states including Massachusetts and quoted Robins on an earnings call: "We're going to try that strategy out for this election cycle, see how goes, and then assess." The $250,000 to New Leadership PAC is a direct corporate check outside that network. Anyone who has weighed an exchange price against a DraftKings line can now watch the sportsbook turn up on the ballot side.
The Fight Over Whose Money Is Dirtier
Nobody at the front of this race is clean on outside spending. Pro-Choice Majority Action has put $450,000 of digital ads behind Nguyen, per the Globe on August 24. On August 25, Sludge traced that PAC's funding almost entirely to EDW Action Fund, whose largest donor is AIPAC's super PAC, United Democracy Project, at least $2.45 million since May 2024. Nguyen has called Gaza a "genocide" and said Netanyahu "should be tried as a war criminal." Her campaign did not respond to Sludge; the chain is Sludge's reading of FEC filings, and Belsito attacked on it the same morning. The Globe also reported in November 2025 that Nguyen moved $190,000 from her state account to a Rhode Island super PAC, Save America Fund, two days before launching, a move the Campaign Legal Center called illegal and an election lawyer defended; the fund has spent about $88,000 for her.
Beccia has called Koh and Nguyen "corrupt politicians," citing a report that Koh's stock portfolio grew while he worked in the Biden White House; Koh's camp says he "did not buy or sell individual stocks" there (Globe, August 16). Koh, at a Swampscott forum on August 13: "I think we need to get all the money out of politics."
Every poll in the race was paid for by a candidate. Koh's own Global Strategy Group survey, fielded July 30 to August 2, had him at 34, Beccia 15, Nguyen 14, with 24 percent undecided. Nguyen's own Workbench Strategy poll from May 26 and 27 had her ahead 28 to 18. Andres-Beck's May poll and Beccia's March poll each showed a near-tie. The Globe confirmed on August 24 there is no independent public polling; Suffolk pollster David Paleologos told MASSterList in May that "the undecideds from each poll are the clear winner."
What Moves The Price From Here
- An independent poll before September 1. None exists, and every model named it the most useful missing input. Koh under 30 or Nguyen within five points knocks the price hard.
- Early and mail returns. In-person early voting runs through August 28. Returns from Lynn and Salem versus Andover are the first hard data anyone will see.
- Day two of the AIPAC story. It cuts both ways for Nguyen in a progressive district, and her contract moves more than Koh's on any response or further endorsement.
- Moving day. Low turnout on Boston's lease-turnover day favors the candidate with the mail program and the money, which is what the market has been pricing.
This one settles on Tuesday, September 1, 2026.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Dan Koh photo by Executive Office of the President of the United States, licensed Public domain; photos cropped, toned, and composited. Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices as of Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:14 p.m. ET, and will keep moving until this market settles after the Tuesday, September 1, 2026 vote. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state). OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. This article does not advocate for or against any candidate or party. Trading involves risk; contracts can go to zero.
