Prices as of August 25, 2026. Record compiled from 21 dated sources; see the sourced record file for every citation.
On August 17, traders on Kalshi were paying 83 cents for a contract that pays one dollar if Stefany Shaheen wins the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District. On Kalshi a price in cents is a probability, so the market was calling the daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen an 83 percent favorite. By Monday's close, August 24, the same contract was 55 cents. Maura Sullivan, the Marine veteran and state party vice chair running against her, went from 15 cents to 43 over the same stretch.
One poll did most of that. Saint Anselm College surveyed the race on August 17 and 18 and released the numbers on August 20: Sullivan 26 percent, Shaheen 24, Hampton Select Board chair Carleigh Beriont 12, state Rep. Heath Howard 7, and 27 percent of the 359 likely Democratic primary voters undecided. The margin of error is 5.2 points, and the college's own release called it "a statistical dead heat." It was also, as Jewish Insider noted on August 20, the first public poll of this race Shaheen has not led. On the day it landed, 2,774 Sullivan contracts changed hands on Kalshi, four times its previous busiest day.
Then the campaigns went to television. Shaheen's spot, the first attack ad of the race, went up August 18, and the New Hampshire Union Leader printed the script the next day: "Maura Sullivan? She's not telling you that 90% of her campaign money comes from outside our state. $300,000 bundled from AIPAC donors, $380,000 from Jeff Bezos's PAC, even from Trump's ICE contractor. Let's show them — New Hampshire's not for sale." Sullivan's answer debuted Tuesday morning, August 25, on WMUR. Voters on camera say Shaheen "is the kind of person who was born on third base … and thought she hit a triple," and "I want a fighter, not a fancy last name." Sullivan closes it herself: "Stefany Shaheen thinks she is entitled to your vote and I know I have to earn it."
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The Board
As of August 25, 2026, 3:20 p.m. ET (Kalshi, cents = probability):
| Outcome | Price | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| Stefany Shaheen | 54.5¢ mid (53 bid / 56 ask) | about 54.5% (≈-120 in sportsbook terms) |
| Maura Sullivan | 43.5¢ mid (43 bid / 44 ask) | about 43.5% (≈+130) |
| Carleigh Beriont | 4¢ mid (3 bid / 4.7 ask) | about 4% (≈+2400) |
The bid is what someone will pay you for a contract right now and the ask is what you would pay to buy one. In sportsbook language the favorite is about -120 and the challenger about +130. Polymarket, at the same hour, had Shaheen 54 and Sullivan 46 on about $35,400 of total trading, a couple of cents warmer on Sullivan than Kalshi. The bettors give Shaheen a small edge the poll does not.
What the Models Think
We also asked a panel of AI models the same question, and 6 of the panel's eight seats ran this board, without showing them the price, only the sourced record below. Their blended answer, the median of the six, put Stefany Shaheen at 45 percent, below the 54.5-cent market. The widest gap between two models was 5 points. Their reasons for leaning Sullivan were the polling trend, her money edge and the undeclared-voter crosstab; what held them back was Shaheen's name recognition and labor support in a low-turnout September primary. One model put it this way: "The sole likely-voter poll shows a dead heat, but Sullivan holds momentum, money, and undeclared voters, slightly outweighing Shaheen's dynasty name and labor ground game."
So the models lean slightly Sullivan and the bettors lean slightly Shaheen, and both are describing a coin flip. These are model estimates, not predictions. The market has real money behind it; the panel has only the record.
How A 25-Point Lead Became A Coin Flip
The seat is open because Rep. Chris Pappas is running for the U.S. Senate, a race with its own board and its own favorite. For most of a year the primary looked like a coronation: Saint Anselm had Shaheen up 18 points last November, the UNH Survey Center had her up 25 in January, Saint Anselm's June survey still had her up 7. Now the lead is minus 2. A 2-point gap inside a 5.2-point margin of error is noise; the direction is not.
The money ran the other way the whole time. Sullivan has raised about $3.3 million to Shaheen's $2.2 million and entered July with roughly $1.6 million in the bank against $1.2 million, per NHPR's July 16 filing roundup. Shaheen's answer has been institutional: former Gov. John Lynch, Sen. Mark Kelly and most of the state's labor unions. Sullivan's has been national Democrats and veterans, led by VoteVets and Gov. Mikie Sherrill, who stumped for her in Manchester on August 19 and was quoted by the Union Leader on August 21: "We need in Washington to send in the fighters. We need to send in a mom. We need to send in a Marine."
The market's first reaction to the poll is its own story. New Hampshire lets undeclared voters take a Democratic ballot on primary day (RSA 659:14; RSA 654:34 lets them return to undeclared on the way out). Saint Anselm's undeclared subgroup went Sullivan 30, Shaheen 24; registered Democrats were tied, 24 to 23. The turnout mix decides this race, and the Senate primary above it on the same ballot.
"Not For Sale" Versus "Born On Third Base"
Start with what the record supports in Shaheen's ad. HuffPost reviewed FEC filings on August 7 and counted 150 donations from AIPAC-linked donors to Sullivan totaling $296,000, about a tenth of her haul, against 9 worth $23,150 to Shaheen. The 90 percent out-of-state figure is the one the Union Leader reported on August 19, which also put Shaheen's own out-of-state share at roughly three-quarters. The "$380,000 from Jeff Bezos's PAC" line is the ad's claim; nothing in the record we compiled confirms or refutes it. Sullivan's spokesman, Emmett Avery, told Jewish Insider that "Maura has not received any money from AIPAC and would not accept its endorsement if offered."
Now the part neither ad mentions. The Union Leader put outside spending in this primary at $3.3 million on August 21: Article One PAC $940,000 for Shaheen, VoteVets $1.2 million for Sullivan. Article One, as InDepthNH reported in an August 5 op-ed by Andru Volinsky, is funded largely by Robert Granieri, the billionaire founder of Jane Street Capital, whose super PAC giving has been "mostly pro-Israel focused." So the candidate attacking her rival's AIPAC-linked donors is being carried by a super PAC bankrolled by a pro-Israel megadonor, while Shaheen herself backed the Massie amendment to end $3.3 billion in annual military aid to Israel.
Sullivan's resume took its own hit. On August 24, NHPR's Josh Rogers fact-checked three claims: "six years" in the Obama administration were two paid years plus four unpaid on a commission board while she worked at PepsiCo; "part of the Obama administration when they passed the Affordable Care Act" was revised to "implemented"; and "I sat across the table with Netanyahu" became "one of eight Americans in the room."
Shaheen's exposure is the last name. On August 25 NRCC spokeswoman Maureen O'Toole wrote: "The far-left insurgency sweeping the country has come for New Hampshire, and Nepo Baby Stefany Shaheen is leaning in," a shot at her website now backing Medicare for All. The dynasty question is not only a Republican line, either. The Union Leader wrote on August 21 that New Hampshire voters have "a long, storied history of being good to political dynastic families," naming Sununu, Shaheen, Gregg and Bass.
One more thing moved on August 24. Howard suspended his campaign and endorsed Beriont, telling InDepthNH: "I call on all candidates without establishment backing to do the same so we can finish the job and avoid vote-splitting." The progressive lane polled 22 percent combined; it caps at third place, but where its voters go decides a 2-point race.
What Moves The Price From Here
A final-week poll. Either candidate clearing 30 percent in a second Saint Anselm or UNH survey would move the price more than anything a campaign says.
The ad war on WMUR. Sullivan's reply began airing August 25, and Shaheen's campaign answered within hours that her rival "was unable to refute one single fact." The undecided skew female and older, where Shaheen polls better; a spot that lands with them pushes her back up.
The progressive lane. Beriont's 12 percent plus whatever she inherits from Howard is the swing bloc: toward Sullivan as the change candidate, Shaheen goes lower; back to the name they know, she recovers.
Undeclared turnout. Sullivan's edge with undeclared voters is 6 points; a contested Republican Senate primary the same day could pull some of them to the other ballot, helping Shaheen.
This one settles on Tuesday, September 8, 2026.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Portsmouth, New Hampshire photo by Unknown photographer, licensed Public domain; photos cropped, toned, and composited. Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices as of August 25, 2026, and will keep moving until this market settles after the Tuesday, September 8, 2026 vote. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state). OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. This article does not advocate for or against any candidate or party. Trading involves risk; contracts can go to zero.
