Prices as of Monday, September 7, 2026, 10:39 p.m. Eastern. Record compiled from 30 dated sources on August 25 and extended on September 7; see the sourced record file for every citation.
As of Monday, September 7, 2026: New Hampshire votes Tuesday, and on Kalshi the Republican Senate primary is already priced as over. The contract that pays $1 if John E. Sununu is the nominee is quoted at 99.3 cents by buyers and 99.5 by sellers; Scott Brown's is 0.6 to 0.7. The only number still being argued is the margin. A Sununu win by 40 points or more is priced a shade above even, 49 cents bid and 56 offered with the last trade at 60, and a 50-point margin about one chance in four, at 22 to 27. The November seat itself is 82 to 83 cents for the Democrats and 18 to 19 for the Republicans, up from 12 cents a month ago.
He did not show. WMUR's Granite State Debate on Monday, August 31, the last one scheduled before the vote, came and went without him, which made this the first contested Republican U.S. Senate primary in the station's recent history to go without a debate between the leading candidates, per the Union Leader. Brown told the Jack Heath radio show that WMUR had told him Sununu was the first state candidate in its history to decline the invitation, per Patch. The campaign's answer, through spokesman Mike Schrimpf, was that "John has already done two debates and 20 joint appearances with Scott Brown." On August 25, the afternoon WMUR reported he had declined, Sununu's contract had a middle price of 97.6 cents. Tonight it is 99.4. The week of empty-podium coverage this page called the only live catalyst left moved the price 1.8 cents, toward him.
What happened in between was a poll. On August 26, the day after the no-show story, the UNH Survey Center released its August 20–24 survey: Sununu 60%, Brown 20%, 17% undecided. The same release had Sununu ahead of Chris Pappas 45% to 43% in the general election, the first lead for the Republican in any public poll in this page's record. Both numbers are in the prices below, in two different places.
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The Board
As of September 7, 2026, 10:39 p.m. Eastern (Kalshi, cents = probability; buyer bid / seller ask). The illustration at the top of this page still shows the August 25 board, Sununu 98¢ and Brown 3¢.
| Market | Outcome | Buyers / Sellers | Reads as |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican Nominee | John E. Sununu | 99.3¢ / 99.5¢ | about 99%; $99.50 buys a $100 payout |
| Republican Nominee | Scott Brown | 0.6¢ / 0.7¢ | under 1%; 70 cents buys a $100 payout |
| Sununu Margin Of Victory | 30 points or more | 71¢ / 75¢ | about 3 in 4 |
| Sununu Margin Of Victory | 40 points or more | 49¢ / 56¢ | a shade above even; last trade 60¢ |
| Sununu Margin Of Victory | 50 points or more | 22¢ / 27¢ | about 1 in 4 |
The margin rows are the live part of this page and the thinnest. The 40-point contract has 200 contracts bid at 49 cents and 200 offered at 56, with 779 open in all, and it printed 56 on Saturday and 61 on Sunday, then 54 to 55 on Monday before a five-contract trade at 60 late in the night; the 50-point contract has 200 bid at 22 and 75 offered at 27. Set that against Brown's nominee contract, where 55,285 contracts are open at under a penny. On Sunday at 5:50 p.m. someone bought 7,036 of them at one cent, about $70 for a $7,036 payout if Brown wins on Tuesday, and at 6:43 p.m. someone took the other side of 7,490 more, paying 99.3 cents on the dollar, about $7,437 at risk to make about $52. On election eve the nominee market has that shape, a lottery ticket on one side and a savings account on the other. The disagreement lives in the margin rows.
Two labels on Kalshi's nominee board are dead. Chris Sununu, the former governor, who declined to run in April 2025, still sits at zero to a tenth of a cent with 10,102 contracts open, and Dan Innis, who withdrew, at the same price. Neither is on the ballot. Tuesday's Republican ballot has eight names, per the Secretary of State's June filings as reported by InDepthNH: Tom Alciere, Scott Brown, Sky Danley, Andy Martin, Mary Maxwell, Richard A. McMenamon II, Sabrina Ann Smith and John E. Sununu. UNH's poll gave the six names other than Brown and Sununu 2% between them.
The case for each side of the New Hampshire (NH) Senate primary, priced on Kalshi: Why Chris Pappas (D) Will Win the NH Senate Primary · Why Karishma Manzur (D) Will Win the NH Senate Primary · Why John E. Sununu (R) Will Win the NH Senate Primary · Why Scott Brown (R) Will Win the NH Senate Primary
What The Models Think
Five of the panel's eight seats ran this board on August 25, pricing the nominee question without seeing the market and blended to 95% for Sununu against a 97.6-cent contract. The market was already more certain than the panel and has only grown more so, at 99.4 tonight; nothing is graded until Tuesday's count. The panel was not asked to price the margin. These are model estimates, not predictions. The market has real money behind it; the panel has only the record.
The Only Bet Left Is The Margin
Kalshi's margin market resolves on Sununu's vote percentage minus the percentage of whoever finishes immediately behind him, and each range includes its lower bound: a margin of exactly 40.0 points pays the 40-point contract. With the six minor names polling 2% combined, that is Sununu minus Brown.
The two nonpartisan polls straddle the market. UNH's poll above is a 40-point gap, with its 17% undecided still out. Saint Anselm College's August 17–18 poll, 54% to 24% with 23% undecided, is a 30-point gap. The market's 30-point contract at 71 to 75 cents and its 40-point contract at 49 to 56 sit between them, and the undecideds are the whole argument. If UNH's 17% break the way the decided vote did, three to one, the margin lands near 48. If every one of them goes to Brown, it is 23. If they split evenly, it holds at 40 and the contract pays by the width of the rule's decimal point. A price just above even on the 40-point line is the market saying it barely knows which of those happens; 22 to 27 on the 50-point line says a landslide needs the undecideds and the turnout to break the same way.
A 40-point margin would be bigger than either of the two Republican Senate primaries this seat has produced with a Sununu or a Brown on the ballot. Brown won the 2014 primary 49.9% to 23.0% over Jim Rubens, a 26.9-point margin in a ten-name field where Rubens and Bob Smith split 45% between them. Sununu's own 2002 primary, against a sitting senator, Smith, was 53.4% to 44.7%, an 8.7-point margin. In 2014 Brown was the frontrunner and the runner-up took 23; on Tuesday the polls make him the runner-up at 20 to 24. The 40-point contract is really a question about the frontrunner: whether Sununu can reach 60 while Brown stays at 20, which is UNH's number to the digit.
What A Narrow Win Would Say About 18 Cents
The Republican contract on the November seat was 12 cents when this site's general-election page ran on August 8, and 14 on August 26. The next afternoon, Thursday, August 27 at 1:10 p.m., a run of buys at 17, 18 and 19 cents, about 9,600 contracts inside a minute, took it to 17, and it has not closed below 16 since. On Thursday, September 3, the day the NRSC released a Fabrizio, Lee & Associates survey with Sununu 37%, Pappas 36% and 23% undecided among 600 likely voters, per the committee's release, buys of 10,000 and 2,740 contracts printed at 18 cents at 5:22 p.m.; the next morning at 8:50 a.m. another 10,000 and 3,492 printed at the same price. Since August 26 the contract has traded 115,543 contracts, and 89% of them were bought at the seller's price. A contract bid up, not sold down. Tonight's book has 500 contracts bid at the 18-cent touch, then 11,800 at 17 and 50,117 at 16, against 24,452 offered at 19 and 26,098 at 20, real size on both sides, which is what a disagreement looks like. The Democratic contract, for balance, traded 40,197 contracts over the same stretch with only 24% bought at the ask; the buying has been on the Republican side.
What the 18 cents is buying is UNH's 45–43 and the NRSC's 37–36. What the 82 is holding is Saint Anselm's 48% to 41% for Pappas, a generic ballot at 52% Democratic in the same poll, and the description UNH's own director, Andrew Smith, gave Newsweek: "New Hampshire is a fairly evenly divided state, leans Democratic, but is fairly evenly divided." Tuesday's margin does not settle that, and the two comparisons above run the wrong way for anyone who thinks it might: Brown's 26.9-point primary win in 2014 preceded a 3.3-point loss to Jeanne Shaheen that November, and Sununu's 8.7-point win over a sitting senator in 2002 preceded a 4.5-point win over her. What a sub-40 margin would tell the general-election market is narrower and still worth something: that after Trump's endorsement, a cash edge of $3 million to $417,000 as of August 19 per the AP, and a skipped debate, something like four in ten Republican primary voters chose someone else. Whether they come home is the question the first post-primary poll of the settled matchup will answer, and that poll, not Tuesday's margin, is the number the 18-cent buyers and the 82-cent holders are both waiting on. These are prices and a public record, not a recommendation.
The other primary is settled too, later and louder. Pappas is 98.3 to 98.5 cents to be the Democratic nominee and Karishma Manzur 1.5 to 1.8, on 311,294 Manzur contracts traded, more than the whole Republican nominee board. Monday's session alone traded 108,041 Manzur contracts and walked her from 3.6 cents to 1.9, with a 10,000-contract print at 2 cents at 7:16 a.m. and a 15,000-contract print at 1.9 at 11:55 a.m., both started by buyers of the no side, who paid 98 cents on the dollar for Pappas. UNH had that race 47% to 34%; Saint Anselm had it 59% to 28%. The November contract pays on the party, not the person, so the Democratic primary touches the 82 cents only if the 2-cent name wins. Kalshi's Democratic board still lists four people who are not running, Stefany Shaheen, Maggie Goodlander, Annie Kuster and Jared Sullivan; the five on the ballot are Pappas, Manzur, David Jarvis, Maxwell Saal and John Vail.
The Man Trump Endorsed Once Called Him A Loser
The seat is open because Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, and both Republicans have lost to her: Sununu, 61, beat her for the Senate in 2002 and lost it back in 2008; Brown, 66, won Ted Kennedy's old Massachusetts seat in 2010, moved north and lost to her in 2014, then served as Trump's ambassador to New Zealand.
Trump picked Sununu on Sunday, February 1, 2026. His Truth Social post, as reported by NBC News, called Sununu an "America First Patriot" and closed: "John E. Sununu has my Complete and Total Endorsement — HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN." Two years earlier, on January 22, 2024, Sununu had written a Union Leader op-ed headlined "John E. Sununu: Donald Trump is a loser," endorsing Nikki Haley.
"If he's our nominee, we're going to lose, and we're going to lose bad." … "As a lifelong Republican, I am tired of losing." (John E. Sununu, Union Leader, January 22, 2024)
Brown, to Semafor on March 27: "Was I surprised that he endorsed the original never-Trumper who was with Kasich, Haley, and called him a loser? Everyone was surprised, and the MAGA people who were with me before are definitely with me now. What did he sell his soul?"
The polls say the MAGA people did not follow. Sununu has led every public poll of the primary in this page's record since January. The newest, the UNH Survey Center's August 20–24 survey of 856 likely Republican primary voters (margin of error 3.3 points), has him at 60% to Brown's 20% with 17% undecided; Saint Anselm College's poll a few days earlier had a 30-point gap. Federal Election Commission filings through June 30 show Sununu with $2,672,646 in the bank to Brown's $735,811. That is why Kalshi has priced this nomination as settled for months, even as the November seat leans Democratic on the map that decides Senate control.
The Epstein Mailer, The Qatar Answer, And The "DC Coronation"
Brown has wanted this debate since before Trump chose sides. On NH Journal's podcast on November 20, 2025, he called the Senate GOP's embrace of Sununu a "DC coronation" and said: "I hope he debates me. I've heard he doesn't want to debate me because I'll kick his ass… just like Martha Coakley did."
The ugliest chapter came in February, when a May 2010 email from Jeffrey Epstein to Gates adviser Boris Nikolic surfaced in the released Epstein files with the line "John Sununu has good stories." No source has established which John Sununu it meant, and none alleges the candidate ever met Epstein. In the last week of March, Strong As Granite PAC, a pro-Brown super PAC, spent $130,000 mailing likely Republican voters a screenshot of the email under the question "Why would a Sununu show up in the files…?" It landed the day after Saint Anselm showed Brown down 49–28, NH Journal reported on March 24.
"It's desperate and crazy… Crazy is one thing. Desperate is another. But when you have both in politics, it shows you are losing." (Republican consultant Matthew Bartlett, NH Journal, March 24, 2026)
Sununu spokesman Mike Schrimpf: "Perhaps lies and smears are how they do politics in Massachusetts, but in New Hampshire people prefer the truth." Brown would not disown the mailer: "Nothing has changed." The story got a second act on July 16, when The Washington Post ran Dan Merica's analysis headlined "Sununu's false answer about Qatar fuels Epstein-files fight." As the Union Leader summarized it on July 26, the Post had a photo of Sununu at a World Economic Forum summit in Doha, the event on the attendee list Nikolic sent Epstein, and Sununu had been caught on camera in March saying he had never been to Doha. Schrimpf: "The fact that he has traveled to Qatar is a matter of public record." By August 20 the campaign had acknowledged Sununu attended, per Granite Post.
Under the personal fight sits a policy split. Asked on WMUR's CloseUp in June whether he would have ordered the strikes on Iran, Sununu said, "Look, if you're asking me if I would have done this, no, no." Brown: "Yeah, I think it was appropriate, because at what point do you just say enough?" At the June 24 Hampton debate his refrain was "Follow the money."
Now price the controversy. The mailer's allegation, the Qatar answer, the Iran split and the coronation attack all circulated between March and August, and Sununu's poll lead grew from 21 points to 30, then to 40. On Kalshi the tell is the gap between buyers and sellers: the day before the debate story broke, buyers offered 94 cents for Sununu while sellers held out for 98.3, which is how thin this market gets when news hits. A day later, with the no-show public, the gap was three-tenths of a cent.
More on this: 2026 Senate Races: Every Kalshi Board We Track · Why Scott Brown (R) Will Win the NH Senate Primary · Why John E. Sununu (R) Will Win the NH Senate Primary · Why Sherrod Brown (D) Will Win the Ohio Senate Race · A.J. Brown Injury: The Patriots Got Sold, Then Bought Back
What Moves The Price From Here
Most New Hampshire polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern, some at 7:30 or 8, and in 2024 the AP reported its first results at 8:03 p.m., three minutes after the last polls closed, per its decision notes for this primary. About 135,000 Republican primary ballots were cast in 2024 and about 148,000 in 2022. The AP calls a race only when no scenario lets the trailing candidate close the gap, which for the nominee contract should come early. The 18-cent contract will read the same returns through its order book, and the book is lopsided: a result that reads well for Republicans has to eat about 50,000 contracts offered between 19 and 20 cents to move two cents, while a result that reads badly finds only 500 contracts under it at 18 before 11,800 at 17 and a 50,117-contract floor at 16. The path up is thick and the path down is one thin step, then a wall. The margin contracts settle on the final percentages. Under New Hampshire's rule as the AP describes it, a losing candidate can request a recount, and pay for it, only if the margin is 10 votes or under 1.5% of the total, a threshold no poll of this race has come within 25 points of.
The 40-point line, 49 to 56 cents, is UNH's number on the nose: a three-to-one split of the undecideds pays it and a Brown-leaning break does not. The 50-point line, 22 to 27, needs something like 65 to 15, and no public poll in the August record has had Brown under 20. The nominee contract settles on the result; the margin contracts wait for the final count. After that, the number that moves the 18 cents, in either direction, is the first nonpartisan poll of Pappas against Sununu as a settled matchup, whenever it lands.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. John E. Sununu photo by Unknown author, licensed Public domain; photo cropped, toned, and composited. Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices as of September 7, 2026, 10:39 p.m. Eastern (Monday night), and will keep moving until these markets settle after the Tuesday, September 8, 2026 vote. OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. This article does not advocate for or against any candidate or party. Trading involves risk; contracts can go to zero.
