Prices as of August 26, 2026, 5:29 p.m. ET. Record compiled from 16 dated sources; see the sourced record file for every citation.
Who is in the Avengers: Doomsday cast? Marvel has confirmed roughly 30 actors, led by Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, Chris Evans as Steve Rogers, and Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellen as the original X-Men. Tobey Maguire, Hugh Jackman and Ryan Reynolds are not on that list, and as of August 26, 2026, Kalshi traders priced each of them appearing at 96 cents; 96 cents means a 96% chance. The movie is dated December 18, 2026.
Marvel has confirmed roughly 30 actors for Avengers: Doomsday, and not one of them is Tobey Maguire, Hugh Jackman or Ryan Reynolds. As of August 26, 2026, the market does not care. On Kalshi, where a price in cents is a probability, you pay 96 cents for a contract that says Maguire's Spider-Man is in the movie, 96 for Jackman's Wolverine and 96 for Reynolds' Deadpool, about a 96 percent chance on each. The strongest thing anyone has put on the record for Maguire is a scooper's line, not a studio's: on August 9, 2026, The Cosmic Circus' Alex Perez wrote, "I can confirm from sources he's in both movies," meaning Doomsday and Secret Wars.
The official list is long and dated. Marvel's cast-chair livestream on March 26, 2025 seated 27 actors, from Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom to Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellen as the old X-Men. Chris Evans was confirmed as Steve Rogers in December 2025. Kathryn Newton confirmed Cassie Lang herself in April 2026 with a miniature director's chair on Instagram. Hayley Atwell walked out on the D23 stage on August 15, 2026 beside Downey and Evans. That is the confirmed cast. Everyone the market is trading, with one exception, is missing from it.
The exception is Newton. Her contract on the 20-name Kalshi board has already paid out. The other 19 are open, and they are open because Marvel has said nothing. The last big move on the board came from a 73-second joke video, not an announcement, and the biggest trade of the past week was someone betting against the one actor who keeps saying he is in it.
Stay ahead of the markets.
Daily insights and expert picks on Kalshi, Polymarket, and what's moving markets.
Free forever. Unsubscribe anytime.
The Board
As of August 26, 2026, 5:29 p.m. ET (Kalshi, cents = probability):
| Outcome | Yes price (bid/ask) | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| Tobey Maguire appears as Spider-Man | 93¢ / 96¢ | about 93 to 96 percent |
| Hugh Jackman appears as Wolverine | 94¢ / 96¢ | about 94 to 96 percent |
| Tom Holland appears as Spider-Man | 52¢ / 69¢ | about 52 to 69 percent |
| Andrew Garfield appears as Spider-Man | 18¢ / 21¢ | about 18 to 21 percent |
Each name is its own yes-or-no contract, so the prices do not add up to anything. A contract pays if the actor is officially announced or credited in the role, or simply appears on screen in the released film, and it can also close early as a no if the film finishes its run without them. The market expects to settle around January 2, 2027, two weeks after the December 18 release, so by then every answer is on the screen. The movement has all pointed one way. Maguire closed at 78 cents on July 28, 88 on August 7, then jumped to 91 on August 16, the day after D23, on 4,775 contracts, his busiest day of the month, and has closed between 93 and 94 every day since August 21. Jackman went 84 to 90 across the same weekend and 97 today; Reynolds 81 to 90 and 93 today. Holland is the odd one: his contract fell from 60 cents on July 28 to 23 on July 30, the two days before Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened, then climbed back to 60, on 177,107 lifetime contracts and 60,655 open, both the largest on the board, with the widest gap between what buyers bid and sellers ask. The biggest single trades of the past seven days: 1,212 contracts betting no on Benedict Cumberbatch at 83 cents on August 22 at 1:44 p.m. ET; about 2,300 contracts betting no on Reynolds at 92 cents in one clip on August 24 at 12:45 p.m. ET; and, at 2:49 a.m. ET on August 23, a 999-contract yes on Jackman at 94 cents followed 24 seconds later by a 728-contract yes on Maguire at 93. Twenty-four-hour volume today is thin, 361 contracts on Maguire and 569 on Holland.
What the Models Think
We also put the Maguire question to a panel of forecasting programs we grade in public. Three of the panel's eight seats ran this board; the other three we asked were down for billing reasons and returned nothing. We handed them the sourced record below and asked for their own number. Their middle answer put Maguire at 93 percent, a hair under the 96-cent ask and level with the 93-cent bid. The widest gap between two forecasters was seven points, from 88 to 95. The reason, in plain words, was the No Way Home precedent: Maguire and Garfield spent 2021 denying that film before appearing in it, so, as one model put it, "Marvel secrecy is not evidence of absence," and a named scooper's report tends to be the leading indicator, not the studio. The same forecaster flagged the one real way this loses: a reshoot that pushes Maguire's footage to Secret Wars, or a release slip past the January 2 expiry. The market has money behind it and the panel has only the record, and on this name the two agree. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
What Marvel Has Actually Said, Chair By Chair
The official record is four dated events. On March 26, 2025, Marvel Studios streamed a five-hour reveal of cast chairs. Per Rotten Tomatoes' running cast guide, last updated July 20, 2026, those chairs belonged to Downey, Chris Hemsworth, Anthony Mackie, Tom Hiddleston, Paul Rudd, Letitia Wright, Winston Duke, Tenoch Huerta Mejía, Simu Liu and Danny Ramirez; the Fantastic Four of Pedro Pascal, Vanessa Kirby, Ebon Moss-Bachrach and Joseph Quinn; the Thunderbolts of Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, David Harbour, Wyatt Russell, Hannah John-Kamen and Lewis Pullman; and the X-Men of Stewart, McKellen, Alan Cumming, Rebecca Romijn, James Marsden, Kelsey Grammer and Channing Tatum. Evans followed in the December 2025 teaser. Newton's April 2026 Instagram announcement came with the line "And it's tiny because Cassie Lang gets tiny," and her Kalshi contract settled yes. On August 15, 2026, ABC News reported Kevin Feige bringing Downey, Evans and Atwell on stage at D23 to introduce new footage, with Marvel describing the heroes as "set on a deadly collision course and face an existential threat unlike anything they've ever encountered."
That is the whole confirmed list, and the pattern matters for a reader trying to answer "who is in Avengers: Doomsday." Marvel has added exactly one name at a time, months apart, and every addition has come through an official channel: a teaser, a studio stage, or the actor's own account with Marvel's blessing. Nobody on the open board has had that moment. The same method runs on our White Lotus season 4 cast board and the next James Bond board, and the lesson from both is the same: a rumor and a confirmation trade at different prices for a reason.
Maguire's case is the strongest of the unconfirmed, and it still rests on reporting. Perez's August 9 Q&A says he is in both films and declines to say whether the character survives. The Direct, on July 29, placed him in a rumored opening sequence against Jackman's Wolverine, labeled as rumor with no named source. The same piece quoted Tom Holland telling Cinemania, "I don't know a lot about those movies, I think by design," and noted he was omitted from the chair reveal and busy elsewhere during the April-to-December 2025 shoot. Holland's contract is the board's most traded and its widest, 52 bid against 69 ask, which is the market's way of saying it has no idea. Brand New Day's post-credits scene, which finds Spider-Man in outer space under a "Spider-Man will return" card, is being read as a setup for Secret Wars rather than Doomsday, per Deadline's explainer. If you want the mechanics of reading a price like 52 against 69, the Kalshi price guide covers it in a minute.
The Video That Moved Three Contracts, And The Names Saying No
The catalyst for the August 16 jump was comedy. During Marvel's D23 panel, Hugh Jackman, with Ryan Reynolds off camera, sent in a 73-second video asking for a part. MovieWeb, August 15, has the lines: Jackman asks Feige, "Why the hell would they need us?"; Reynolds calls the two of them "the golden ones"; Jackman says "I would love to join" and might "be able to convince Ryan to appear." Feige moved on without answering, and MovieWeb was explicit that neither actor's involvement has been confirmed. Under the contract rules, a joke on a fan-event screen is neither an announcement nor a credit. The market bought it anyway: Jackman 84 to 90 that weekend, Reynolds 81 to 90 on 3,482 contracts, his busiest day of the month. The strange part is that the last first-party word from Reynolds pointed the other way. In September 2025 he told Entertainment Weekly, of his Easter eggs, "I've written them all at home in my PJs, and nobody's seen 'em nor have I stepped foot on set." That is the context for the 2,300-contract no at 92 cents on August 24.
Benedict Cumberbatch is the board's contradiction. He told Variety at Sundance in January 2025 that Doctor Strange would sit out Doomsday. In September 2025, to the Brazilian outlet Omelete, asked if Feige was keeping Strange a secret, he said, "That's exactly it. Call him!" and joked that "maybe they didn't have enough chairs." By January 29, 2026, per SuperHeroHype via Yahoo, he had said at Sundance, "I got that wrong, I am in the next one," while a scooper's cast list had him as Doom's wizard sidekick, a Strange variant. Marvel has confirmed none of it. He trades 90 bid, 93 ask, and the 1,212-contract no at 83 cents on August 22 was the largest single trade on the board this week.
Then there are the flat denials. Andrew Garfield, in a GQ Q&A on October 9, 2025, answered the Doomsday question with "No, unequivocally f–king no." He sits at 18 to 21 cents, and the reason he is not at 5 is that he said the same kind of thing about No Way Home. Mark Ruffalo told Empire in January 2026 that Hulk is not in Doomsday, with the door open for later: "As long as they keep finding cool things to do with Hulk." He trades 32 to 35. Halle Berry told ScreenRant on February 4, 2026, "while I'm sad I won't be in Doomsday this round, there are other rounds," and told Variety, "I promise you, we all think I'm being coy, and I'm being silly, but I'm not." Her contract still climbed from a 22-cent close to 29 bid, 35 ask today on a 554-contract buy at 28. And Iman Vellani, at 76 to 81, owes her price to director Andy Serkis, who said on camera in an April 28, 2026 interview, "I'm excited to see you in Doomsday," to which Vellani replied, "No, you can't say that!"
The one name at the bottom carries the board's only real controversy. Jonathan Majors' Kang trades at 5 to 6 cents, and the reason is documented rather than rumored: in the same Sundance 2025 remarks, Cumberbatch attributed Marvel's pivot from Kang to Doom to the reception of Quantumania and to Majors' firing after an altercation with his then-girlfriend, the backlash that ended his run in the role. Nothing in the record since has moved that contract, and the 938-contract yes at 5 cents on August 23 reads as a lottery ticket, not information.
More on this: Why Alani Bankhead (D) Will Win the Montana Senate Race · Why Andy Barr (R) Will Win the Kentucky Senate Race · Why Cory Booker (D) Will Win the New Jersey Senate Race · Why David Brock Smith (R) Will Win the Oregon Senate Race · Why Jeff Merkley (D) Will Win the Oregon Senate Race
What Moves The Price From Here
Any official cast addition before December 18, 2026. Marvel's pattern is one name every few months through an official channel: Evans in December 2025, Newton in April 2026, Atwell at D23 in August 2026. A studio confirmation of Maguire, Jackman or Reynolds would pay their contracts immediately, since an announcement alone settles yes even if the scene is later cut. A confirmation of anyone at 60 cents or below, Holland above all, is where a price would actually travel.
A release-date change before January 2, 2027. The contracts expect to settle around January 2, 2027. The forecasters flagged that a slip in the December 18 date past that expiry could force contracts to no on names who are in the film, and the reverse risk is that reshoots move an unconfirmed actor's footage into Secret Wars. Watch Disney's release calendar, not the rumor mill.
December 18, 2026, opening day. Every open contract becomes knowable the moment the credits roll. Whoever is on screen settles yes regardless of what was or was not announced, and whoever is not, is not. This one settles on December 18, 2026.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Tobey Maguire photo by Eva Rinaldi, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices as of August 26, 2026, 5:29 p.m. ET, and will keep moving until this market settles after the December 18, 2026 release. OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. This article does not advocate for or against any candidate or party. Trading involves risk; contracts can go to zero.
