Prices as of 1:45 PM ET, Thursday, September 10, 2026. Trade data from the Kalshi public trade feed; sportsbook odds and betting splits from DraftKings' published splits table.
Between Monday, September 7, and Thursday afternoon, September 10, 2026, 101,995 contracts of "Green Bay wins" traded on Kalshi for Sunday's game in Minneapolis, and 95% of them were bought. Only one game left on the Week 1 board, Cowboys-Giants, has drawn more contracts on a single side. On Kalshi a price in cents is a probability, and after three days of nearly one-way buying the Packers' price went from 47 cents to 46. Down, not up.
That last part is the story, and it has a simple explanation and a useful one. The simple explanation is that someone is selling Packers contracts to the crowd as fast as the crowd buys them, at a price they like. The useful one is that the price they like is three and a half cents under what DraftKings charges for the same team.
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The Board
As of 1:45 PM ET, September 10 (Kalshi, cents = probability; DraftKings alongside):
| Outcome | Kalshi | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|
| Vikings win | 53–54¢ | -122 |
| Packers win | 45–46¢ | +102 |
| Vikings win by over 1.5 | 50–52¢ | Vikings -1.5 (-108) |
| Over 46.5 total points | 51–53¢ | Over 46.5 (-108) |
DraftKings' +102 on Green Bay converts to a 49.5% price. Kalshi's ask is 46. That is a 3.5-cent gap on the same outcome, the third-widest on the entire Week 1 board, and it survives Kalshi's fee of under two cents a contract with room left over. The Vikings gap is one cent, a wash after the fee. Kickoff is Sunday, September 13, at 4:25 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium, a dome.
Who Is Selling The Packers At 46
Kalshi does not publish who is behind an order, but the shape of this tape is not ambiguous. The Packers contract has 221,820 contracts of open interest, the third-largest on the board. Its biggest single buy all week was 4,103 contracts, on Thursday morning at 47 cents. There is no whale here on the buy side; there are thousands of small buyers, and the day-by-day numbers say so: 10,642 contracts Monday, 24,609 Tuesday, 40,316 Wednesday, 26,428 by lunch Thursday, every day between 92% and 98% bought, and the price 47, 47, 47, 46.
A market that absorbs that and ticks down is a market where the resting offers are deeper than the buying. On Kalshi that is typically a market-making account that is content to be short the Packers at 46 to 47 cents, and a look across the venue explains why it can be: the book across the street is charging 49.5 for the same thing, so the exchange's seller is offering the Packers cheaper than DraftKings and still finding it worth doing. The Vikings side, 48,071 contracts and 93% bought, has held at 53 to 54 the same way.
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The Book's Tickets And The Book's Money Disagree
At DraftKings, 67% of the spread tickets are on Green Bay +1.5, but only 50% of the money. On the moneyline it is 57% of tickets on the Packers and 42% of the money. The average Vikings bet at the book is roughly twice the size of the average Packers bet. The crowd is on Green Bay at both venues; the larger bettors at the book lean Minnesota, and the exchange's seller, whoever it is, is effectively on Minnesota too, by being short the Packers at 46.
The total is the one market where everyone agrees. DraftKings has 86% of the total money on the under 46.5, and Kalshi's "over 46.5" contract took 3,080 contracts on Thursday morning and 99% of them were sales, which on the exchange is the under. Both venues' money says this game stays under 47 in a dome, which for a Packers-Vikings game is a quiet read. My picks page on this game was written before the week's flow; the Week 1 Kalshi player-prop board has the Love and Jefferson contracts.
What Moves The Price From Here
- The book moves first. DraftKings will not sit at +102 forever with the exchange at 46; a move to +105 or +108 closes most of the gap from the book's side without the exchange doing anything.
- Friday's injury report. A Friday designation on either side moves the 46-cent contract two cents within the hour, in whichever direction the name points.
- The seller's appetite. Ninety-five percent buying and a falling price only lasts while the offers keep refilling. Thursday's 4,103-contract buy was the biggest of the week; a few more of those and the account on the other side either raises its price or steps away.
- Sunday, September 13, 4:25 PM ET. Every contract here settles on the final score in Minneapolis.
Follow Dave on X: @Loughy.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Jordan Love photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; Justin Jefferson photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices and DraftKings odds as of 1:45 PM ET, September 10, 2026, and will keep moving until these markets settle after the September 13, 2026 game. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state). OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Betting involves risk; contracts can go to zero. Must be 21+ to wager at a sportsbook. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
