Prices as of August 26, 2026, 5:31 p.m. ET. Record compiled from 23 dated sources; see the sourced record file for every citation.
What is Elon Musk's net worth? As of August 26, 2026, Forbes' real-time list had Elon Musk at $862.4 billion, the richest person alive. He became the first trillionaire on June 12 when SpaceX listed, peaked at $1.45 trillion on June 16, and fell back below $700 billion in July when the stock halved. Kalshi prices Forbes printing him above $1.4 trillion again before January 1, 2027 at 19-21 cents; 20 cents means a 20% chance.
Forbes' real-time billionaires list had Elon Musk at $862.4 billion at 5 p.m. ET on August 26, 2026, up $6.8 billion on the day and still the richest person alive. That is the answer to the search, with a date on it. The number behind it: on Kalshi, where a price in cents is a probability, the contract that pays $1 if Forbes ever prints him above $1.4 trillion before January 1, 2027 was quoted at 19 cents by buyers and 21 by sellers as of 5:31 p.m. ET, about a one-in-five chance. The market is not asking whether he stays rich. It is asking whether the summer happens again.
On June 12, SpaceX listed on Nasdaq at $135 a share, raised a record $75 billion, and closed its first day at $160.95, which, per Fox Business, made Musk the first trillionaire. Forbes later put the peak at $1.45 trillion on June 16, the day SpaceX touched $225.64. Then the stock lost half its value. By July 25 SpaceX was at $113 and Musk posted two words on X, per 24/7 Wall St: "(Former) Trillionaire." Forbes' monthly top-ten list on August 1 had him at $690 billion, "down $363 billion since last month."
August put about $170 billion back: SpaceX's first earnings as a public company, a Morgan Stanley note arguing that public markets "severely underestimate" its AI business, and one 11% session on August 12 that added $63.7 billion, per IBTimes. SpaceX closed at $137.95 on August 25. Forbes at $1.4 trillion needs about 62% more, and with roughly 95% of the fortune in SpaceX, that means the shares back near their June high.
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The Board
As of August 26, 2026, 5:31 p.m. ET (Kalshi, cents = probability):
| Outcome (a Forbes reading, any time before January 1, 2027) | Yes price (bid/ask) | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| Net worth above $1.4 trillion | 19¢ / 21¢ | about 21% |
| Net worth above $1.5 trillion | 10¢ / 13¢ | about 13% |
| Net worth above $1.6 trillion | 8¢ / 10¢ | about 10% |
| Net worth above $2 trillion | 5¢ / 6¢ | about 6% |
Each contract scores one source, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list, and pays on a single touch: one reading above the line at any moment before January 1, 2027, whether or not the number is still there on December 31. The series has already paid both ways this year; the "below $1 trillion" contract settled YES on June 24. The $1.4 trillion rung is the summer in miniature: 29 cents at the July 13 close, 13 on July 24, 7 on August 2 in the week SpaceX printed its $104.83 low. The biggest trades of the window came on August 13 at 5:23 p.m. ET, the day after the Morgan Stanley note: three fills of 1,000, 687 and 520 contracts at 29 and 30 cents, all buying YES. The rung closed at 31 cents on August 20 on 2,030 contracts, its high for the month, then drifted to 21 by August 25, the last trade before this stamp. Open positions have grown from 66,386 on July 13 to 73,732: money is still arriving on both sides. Kalshi's separate ladder scored on Bloomberg's index prices "above $1 trillion on December 31" at 13 to 21 cents, about one in six, against one in five to touch $1.4 trillion at any moment. Touching is easier than staying.
What the Models Think
We also put the question to our panel of forecasting programs, which we grade in public against real settlements, without showing them the price, only the sourced record below. This time, 3 of the panel's eight seats ran this board. Their middle answer put a Forbes print above $1.4 trillion before 2027 at 17%, a little under the 21-cent market; the widest gap between any two of them was 3 points. The reason, in plain words, was the same from all three: the fortune is a SpaceX proxy, it has only been above $1.4 trillion once, at the June 16 peak, and getting back there means a full retrace of a 50% crash inside four months. One model: "retests of bubble highs within months are uncommon." All three named the one thing that would change their minds, a blowout third-quarter SpaceX report on November 5 that pushes the shares back above $200. The market has real money behind it. The panel has only the record. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
How A Trillionaire Became A "(Former) Trillionaire" In Six Weeks
The fall had a fundamentals chapter before it had a stock chapter. On July 22, Tesla reported second-quarter revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26%, but a 1.4% operating margin, and negative free cash flow of $1.09 billion, its first cash-burning quarter since early 2024, per Electrek, with operating expenses up 47% on AI, robots, robotaxis, and stock pay tied to the 2025 CEO package. Five days later, Forbes had Musk at $695.7 billion after SpaceX fell 4.8% to $109.50, and quoted Morgan Stanley's warning that shares under $100 "would signal investors see no value in the company's AI operations." The SpaceX launch-count board prices the rocket side of the company.
The rebound came from the AI side the market had been doubting. On August 4, SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92%, per Fortune, with the net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1.01 billion. FinanceFeeds has the detail: Starlink at about $4.3 billion on 12 million subscribers, an AI segment of about $2.6 billion, and capital spending of $18.4 billion, $15.8 billion of it on AI. The stock fell as much as 8% after hours on that spending number. On August 6, Tesla and SpaceX announced Terafab, a joint chip plant in Texas; whether the two companies go further than a plant is priced on its own board. On August 7, Forbes had him back above $800 billion. On August 12, Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas argued, per Investing.com, that public markets "severely underestimate" SpaceX's AI platform; the shares rose 11%, and IBTimes put the Forbes figure at $889.9 billion at the close, with the caveat that matters for this board: "The stock is climbing off its own floor rather than breaking new ground." The 24 cents the $1.4 trillion contract added between August 2 and August 20 is that sentence in price form. If cents-as-probability is new to you, this is how a Kalshi price reads.
The Wisconsin Checks And The Chatbot Probes: What The Record Says
The week's documented controversy closed on August 25. The bipartisan Wisconsin Elections Commission had voted 5-1 in July to refer two complaints to prosecutors after finding probable cause that Musk violated the state's election-bribery law with a post offering $1 million to people who voted in the 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court election. Special prosecutor Tim Gruenke declined to charge him, per WXPR and the Associated Press: "Either way the first post is perceived, in the end nobody was paid anything of value for voting." He called it "a simple case of a poorly worded statement that was corrected and brought into compliance with the law." Musk's original post, quoted by Votebeat: "I will also personally hand over two checks for a million dollars each in appreciation for you taking the time to vote." A civil suit by the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign is still pending in Brown County Circuit Court. The market did not treat any of it as news: the $1.4 trillion rung closed at 18 cents on August 24 and 21 on August 25, a move it makes most days.
The controversy that touches the number is the one around xAI's chatbot, now part of SpaceX. Ireland's Data Protection Commission opened an investigation in February, as PBS NewsHour reported on February 17, 2026, into the alleged ability of X users to prompt it to generate "sexualized images of real people, including children," in the words of Deputy Commissioner Graham Doyle. On July 30, per NPR, xAI sued to block a new Minnesota law banning apps that depict real people nude without consent, arguing it violates free speech. Why it belongs on a net-worth page: the AI segment was about a third of SpaceX's second-quarter revenue and most of its spending, and it is the part of the stock the August rally was built on. A regulator that limits the chatbot limits that.
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What Moves The Price From Here
- August 31, 2026: Bloomberg's month-end reading. Kalshi's monthly ladder settles on it, with "above $850 billion" quoted 12 to 49 cents on a thin book and Bloomberg last seen at $858 billion on August 14. It does not score the Forbes contract, but it says whether the rebound held.
- November 5, 2026: SpaceX's third-quarter report. The one catalyst every forecaster on our panel named. AI growth intact sends the shares toward the $200 the panel says the contract needs; another $18 billion quarter with the loss widening sends the rung back toward its August 2 low.
- January 1, 2027: the deadline. The year-end Bloomberg ladder prices "above $1 trillion" at 13 to 21 cents. The Forbes contract needs one reading above $1.4 trillion before its window closes. This one settles on January 1, 2027.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Elon Musk photo by Duncan.Hull, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices quoted are live Kalshi market prices as of August 26, 2026, 5:31 p.m. ET, and will keep moving until this market settles at its January 1, 2027 deadline. OddsShopper covers prediction markets as an independent analyst: any model or panel figures referenced are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. This article does not advocate for or against any candidate or party. Trading involves risk; contracts can go to zero.
