NFL Preseason Week 1 Thursday Picks: All Six Games
Preseason betting is its own sport. The box scores do not matter yet, the depth charts do, and the whole edge tonight comes down to one question the market keeps getting wrong: which coaches are going to let their starters cook, and which ones pull them after a series? Get that read right and Week 1 of the NFL preseason is one of the softest cards of the year.
Below is my game-by-game breakdown of all six Thursday matchups, in my own order of conviction, starting with the one play I keep coming back to. I'm Dave Loughran; follow me on X at @Loughy.
The Quick Answer
My headline preseason play is the Tennessee Titans -6 at San Francisco, a team with everything to prove against a Niners club resting most of its starters. My other two full plays are the Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 against Detroit and the New England Patriots +2.5 at home against Indianapolis, a number that was +3 when I first flagged it, with lighter leans on Pittsburgh +2.5, Arizona +2.5, and a Houston line so split it comes down to shopping for the best number. Every number below is checked against tonight's live board, and where my quoted line has already moved, you get both. The full six-game card, the first-quarter angles, and the two Kalshi passing props I am fading are all below.
Watch The Video
I walk through all six games, the playing-time intel, and my first-quarter angles in the full OddsShopper preseason breakdown. Watch on YouTube.
Tonight's Preseason Board At A Glance
| Game (ET) | Current spread | Total | Kalshi favorite | My play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN At SF (9:00) | Titans -6 | 39.5 | Titans 67¢ | Titans -6 |
| DET At CIN (7:00) | Bengals -7 | 37.5 | Bengals 71¢ | Bengals -6.5 |
| IND At NE (7:30) | Colts -2.5 | 37.5 | Colts 58¢ | Patriots +2.5 |
| GB At PIT (7:00) | Packers -2.5 | 39.5 | Packers 57¢ | Lean Steelers +2.5 |
| ARI At LV (8:00) | Raiders -2.5 | 42.5 | Raiders 55¢ | Lean Cardinals +2.5 |
| LAC At HOU (8:00) | Texans -1.5 | 36.5 | Texans 52¢ | Lean Houston (shop the number) |
The one row that jumps out is Cincinnati. I locked my number at -6.5 and the board has already ticked to -7, which tells you the market agrees that an elite starting offense against a stripped-down Detroit backup unit is a mismatch. More on why that half-point of line movement still does not scare me below.
Titans -6 At San Francisco: The Featured Play
Here is the reasoning that makes this the play of the night, and it is a callback you will see run in reverse a few games down. Joint practices are usually a coach's evaluation window. Do the work there, and you sit your starters in the game that follows, which is exactly why Indianapolis and New England are set up the way they are later on this card. San Francisco held its joint practices, and Kyle Shanahan has already said he is sitting most of his starters after Tuesday's workload.
Tennessee is the mirror image. San Francisco's starters annihilated the Titans' starters in those joint practices, so Robert Saleh's group has every reason to keep playing until it proves something. Saleh is a new head coach with a point to make, he is 10-2 in his preseason career, he has a young roster and a second-year quarterback in Cam Ward who needs the reps, and he has said he wants to get all four of his quarterbacks on the field. That is the profile of a team that plays to score. Behind Ward sit Mitch Trubisky, Will Levis, and Hendon Hooker, while San Francisco turns to Mac Jones, Kurtis Rourke, and Adrian Martinez once its front-liners come off.
The board has Tennessee -6 with a total of 39.5, and the Titans sit at 67 cents to win outright on Kalshi. This is the one I keep coming back to. There is also a first-quarter angle: if you can find Tennessee -2.5 or -3.5 on the first-quarter spread, take it, because that opening frame is the window where the Titans' starters are actually on the field. Liquidity is thin on the exchange right now, so I plan to place resting limit orders and let them fill as casual money pours in through the day.
Bengals -6.5 Vs. Detroit
Cincinnati is playing Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and the rest of its starters for a limited series, and I read Zac Taylor as a coach who leaves his starters out there until they score. Even the Bengals' backup room behind them, Joe Flacco, Josh Johnson, and Sean Clifford, is fine. That is the whole thesis: an elite starting offense against Detroit's backups. Last year's preseason opener, Cincinnati's first string hung points early, and there is no reason to expect a stripped-down Lions unit to slow it down.
Detroit is sitting Jared Goff and most of its starters, and behind them the cupboard is bare. Undrafted rookie Luke Altmyer is set for heavy snaps, and while Dan Campbell likes what he sees, he also said Altmyer has a long way to go and needs a million reps. Newly signed Joshua Dobbs will be limited after coming in late following Teddy Bridgewater's surprise retirement, so this is essentially Altmyer's show.
My quoted number was -6.5, and that is line movement in my favor: the board has since nudged to -7. Laying a big number in the preseason is not my usual move, but here it feels necessary. Even if Detroit scratches a field goal, Cincinnati's starters covering with a touchdown still gets it done. There is a first-quarter angle too: Cincinnati -3.5 in the opening frame around 53 cents on Kalshi looks good, and I do not mind laying more than a field goal there because it is the starting offense on the field. Most traditional books have pulled their first-quarter spreads entirely, so the exchange is the only place that market lives right now.
Patriots +2.5 Vs. Indianapolis
Now the joint-practice logic pays off. Indianapolis and New England practiced together, so the read is backups. Anthony Richardson is expected to play the entire first half with Riley Leonard behind him in the second, the same plan Shane Steichen ran a year ago, when Richardson got hurt in Week 1. Richardson has had a nightmare training camp and his trade value has cratered, so expect a heavy dose of Tommy DeVito, who dominated last preseason. New England is sitting Drake Maye and its starters after doing its work in Tuesday's joint practice, turning this into a rookie showcase.
My number was +3, and the line has since firmed to Indianapolis -2.5, so you are now getting the Patriots at +2.5. Getting a home team as a short dog when the quarterback snaps look even at worst is a number I will take. The board sits at Colts -2.5, total 37.5, with New England at 41 cents on Kalshi.
Steelers +2.5 Vs. Green Bay (Lean)
This is a weak lean, and I will tell you so. Both head coaches sit right around .500 for their preseason careers, with Mike McCarthy at 32-34 and Matt LaFleur at 9-10. Green Bay has been cautious with playing time ever since Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in the preseason more than a decade ago. Last year LaFleur played Jordan Love for a grand total of five pass attempts across the whole preseason, all in Week 1, and Love went 1-of-5 for seven yards before disappearing until the regular season. Expect one drive from Love tonight, then Tyrod Taylor, Kyle McCord, and undrafted rookie Kyren Drones, so the back half is not going to be pretty for Green Bay.
Pittsburgh is not playing Aaron Rodgers, who said of suiting up, "It's preseason football. It's not real football." There is no world where a 42-year-old plays a game he just labeled meaningless. McCarthy says three quarterbacks go, which likely means Mason Rudolph for a couple of series, Will Howard making his NFL debut, and rookie third-rounder Drew Allar finishing. I do not love the spot, but I will take the home points. The board has Green Bay -2.5 with a total of 39.5 and Pittsburgh at 42 cents on Kalshi.
Cardinals +2.5 At Las Vegas (Lean)
Two rookie head coaches meet here, Klint Kubiak in Las Vegas and Mike LaFleur in Arizona, which makes the sequencing hard to trust. Both are likely to run their starters for one series. Kirk Cousins leads the Raiders' first group alongside Ashton Jeanty, and Jacoby Brissett starts for Arizona ahead of Gardner Minshew, with Carson Beck and Kedon Slovis splitting the late reps. First-overall pick Fernando Mendoza gets a long look behind Cousins, and the smart move Las Vegas is making is running him behind the starting offensive line to protect him.
With two rookie staffs and quarterback rooms that grade out about even, I do not want to lay points, so give me the Cardinals getting 2.5. The board has Las Vegas -2.5, total 42.5, and Arizona at 44 cents on Kalshi.
There is one more wrinkle worth flagging. Kalshi is one of the only places posting preseason passing props, and both Mendoza and Beck are trading north of 50 cents on the YES to clear 125 passing yards. I lean NO on both. Public and casual money floods the over on a first-overall-pick debut, and neither quarterback is a lock to see enough snaps, sharing a room behind the starters, to get there without running hot. If you want to understand how those cents-priced markets work before you fade them, my guide to trading NFL markets on Kalshi walks through it.
Texans Vs. Chargers: A Line-Shopping Lean
This is the weakest lean on the card, and the whole play is the number. Neither team is playing its starters. Jim Harbaugh has already said Trey Lance gets a half before DJ Uiagalelei takes over, and roughly 15 Chargers veterans will warm up but not play. Houston is sitting most of its starters, CJ Stroud included, so expect more Davis Mills than last year now that the Texans carry only three quarterbacks instead of four, plus Graham Mertz and rookie kicker Chris Freeman.
With both benches emptied, this is a coin flip, and the market treats it like one. Our board has Houston at -1.5, but some books and the Kalshi exchange price the Texans closer to a pick'em, and if you would rather have points outright, the Chargers are sitting at +1 to +1.5. My lean is Houston, but only at the right number, which makes this a pure line-shopping spot: lay as little as you can on Houston, or take the Chargers' points if that is the better price. The board has Houston -1.5 with a total of 36.5 and the Texans at 52 cents on Kalshi.
How To Bet The Preseason The Smart Way
Two transferable habits win the preseason. The first is to shop every number. The market is thin and books disagree game to game, so in a soft, low-limit environment the price you get is often worth more than the read itself. That is exactly where the tool surfaces the value for you: the OddsShopper odds screen scans DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and the rest of the major books on one page and shows the no-vig fair number, so you are never guessing which book has the best line. If you want the plain-English version of why that gap exists, start with how sportsbooks build in their margin and how to use the odds screen.
The second is to hunt the first-quarter spreads, the one stretch where you actually know the starters are on the field. Most traditional books have stopped posting them, so the Titans -2.5 and Bengals -3.5 first-quarter angles above live on the exchange, not the app you usually open.
I post every one of these plays, plus the weekend preseason cards you will not find on YouTube, free on Tails all season with no subscription. Grab today's free picks.
The Bottom Line
Strip it all down and tonight's card rewards one skill: reading which teams still have something to prove. San Francisco does not, so its starters sit, and Tennessee does, so my headline number is the Titans laying six. Cincinnati's starters are a live-fire mismatch, New England's home points are a gift when the quarterback snaps look even, and the three leans are exactly that, small edges you only take at the right price. Preseason is a projection game on personnel, so shop the number, respect the coaches who play to score, and let the free card do the reads.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Dave Loughran's top NFL preseason pick tonight? My featured play is the Tennessee Titans -6 at San Francisco. The 49ers are resting most of their starters after Tuesday's joint-practice workload, while Robert Saleh's Titans plan to play everyone, with the starters on the field for more than a series. A team with something to prove against a team that is done evaluating is the classic preseason side.
Why bet the Titans -6 against the 49ers in a preseason game? It comes down to playing time. San Francisco's starters annihilated Tennessee's in joint practices, so the Titans have every reason to keep their front-liners on the field, including second-year quarterback Cam Ward. San Francisco has already seen what it needed to see and is sitting its starters. That gap in snaps is the entire bet.
Are preseason first-quarter spreads worth betting? They are the sharpest preseason surface when you can find them, because the first quarter is the only stretch where you know the starters are playing. Most traditional books have stopped posting them, so the exchange is where they live now. I like Tennessee -2.5 or -3.5 in the first quarter and Cincinnati -3.5 around 53 cents.
What are the Kalshi passing props Dave is fading? Kalshi is one of the only places posting preseason passing props. Both Fernando Mendoza and Carson Beck are trading above 50 cents on the YES to clear 125 passing yards, and I lean NO on both. Public money floods the over on debuts, and neither quarterback is a lock to see enough snaps to get there without running hot.
