Preseason spreads aren't football markets. They're playing-time markets wearing a football market's clothes, and Friday's three-game card is the cleanest example of it all week. The incentives are different in August: evaluation, health, and snap plans matter more to these coaching staffs than the final score, and several of them have already dropped enough playing-time clues in public to shape the card.
So our NFL preseason picks today start from playing time rather than talent. Below are the four plays off the OddsShopper preseason show, in order of conviction, and the one number that looks most mispriced is in New York.
The Quick Answer
Our headline play among tonight's Friday NFL preseason picks is the Denver Broncos -3.5 on the road at Atlanta, where Sean Payton is playing his available starters into a Falcons team that has said it doesn't want to show much. The other three plays are Tampa Bay +6.5 at the Jets, the under 34.5 in that same game, and Washington +3.5 against Miami. The playing-time intel behind each one, the shopping gap sitting on the Jets number, and why that line looks wrong are all below.
The angle tonight: in August, look for the sideline that still has a reason to keep useful players on the field. These four NFL preseason betting picks all come from playing-time clues: direct coach comments, joint-practice results, and long-standing preseason tendencies.
Watch The Video
Dave Loughran breaks down all three Friday games, the coach-speak reads, and the exchange pricing in the full OddsShopper preseason show. Watch on YouTube.
Friday's Preseason Board At A Glance
| Game | Spread | Total | The play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver At Atlanta | Broncos -3.5 | — | Broncos -3.5 |
| Tampa Bay At NY Jets | Jets -6.5 | 34.5 | Buccaneers +6.5 and under 34.5 |
| Miami At Washington | Dolphins -3.5 | 35.5 | Commanders +3.5 |
The Buccaneers-Jets line is the row that matters. It sat at 6.5 nearly everywhere by Friday afternoon, but it was up at 7 and even 7.5 at some books. A full point of disagreement on a game where one team may play its starters for a single series tells you nobody has settled on anything here.
Broncos -3.5 At Atlanta: The Featured Play
The Broncos-Falcons preseason odds have Denver laying 3.5 on the road, and this is the game with the widest quarterback gap on the card. It isn't close.
Sean Payton has said the Denver starters healthy enough to go are playing. The exception is Bo Nix (DEN), who's healthy but sitting after two ankle surgeries this offseason, and that's an easy call to respect in August. The problem for Atlanta is that Denver's backup situation isn't a downgrade in preseason terms. Jarrett Stidham (DEN) threw for 376 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions across roughly four quarters of work spread over two games last preseason, and he's likely to get about a half here. Payton has run that same script two years running, following Stidham with Sam Ehlinger (DEN), who looked sharp himself last year. That's a perfectly good third quarterback for this environment.
Atlanta's plan is the opposite. Tua Tagovailoa (ATL) is expected to start and play a series or 10 plays, whichever comes first, per new head coach Kevin Stefanski. In practice, two quick three-and-outs and he's done. Tagovailoa is also on a new team and already missed time in training camp with back tightness. Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) still isn't fully recovered from a partially torn ACL, which means the night belongs to Cooper Rush (ATL) and an undrafted Division II rookie. Occasionally one of those arms comes out and wows everybody. It is not the way to bet.
Stefanski has also said he doesn't want to show much, so expect vanilla play-calling, and the Falcons took real hits to their starting defense this summer on top of it.
Then there's the record. Payton is 6-0 straight up and 6-0 against the spread in his last six preseason games, the Broncos have averaged over 31 points per game across the last two preseasons, and the average margin of victory in that run is nearly 18 points. Coaching tendencies are the one preseason trend we trust, because unlike regular-season trends they describe a decision a specific person keeps making. Broncos -3.5.
Buccaneers +6.5 At The Jets
Here's the number the market has most wrong.
The Jets are laying 6.5 at most books and up to 7.5 at a few, and the Buccaneers side is trading at 51 cents on the Kalshi exchange. That's about -105 in American odds against the -110 you'd pay for the same side at a typical book, though it's worth remembering that an exchange price is what last traded rather than a guaranteed fill, and the trading fee eats into an edge that small.
The two teams held joint practices this week, and Tampa Bay won both days. We think that's the context the spread is ignoring. Todd Bowles is usually very unlikely to play his starters in the preseason without a dramatic reason, so Baker Mayfield (TB) sits, and none of the front-line Buccaneers should see meaningful work. Jake Browning (TB) was expected to start and play real snaps, but a back strain has ruled him out, leaving the reps to a backup and an undrafted rookie who can move a bit.
None of that would matter if the Jets were actually playing. Aaron Glenn said everyone is playing, and that much is baked into the price. But he also said his starters will play 25 to 30 snaps across all three preseason games, and that he hasn't decided how to divide them. Do the arithmetic: fewer than 10 snaps a game. Coming off two joint practices, a single series for Geno Smith (NYJ) and the first-team offense is entirely realistic, after which the game belongs to rookie fourth-rounder Cade Klubnik (NYJ) and likely Brady Cook (NYJ).
Stack the two sides up and the mismatch the number implies starts to disappear:
| Who Actually Plays | Tampa Bay | NY Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Starters | Expected to sit | Playing, but 25-30 snaps across all three preseason games |
| Quarterback | A backup and an undrafted rookie, with Baker Mayfield and Jake Browning out | Geno Smith, possibly one series, then Cade Klubnik |
| Joint Practices | Won both days | Lost both days |
Laying nearly a touchdown for that is the mistake. Remember the Denver logic from a few paragraphs ago, where an established backup is worth real points in August: the Jets have the reverse of it, a new system nobody has proven anything in and a starter who may be a spectator by the second quarter. Buccaneers +6.5.
Under 34.5 In Tampa Bay-Jets
The side and the total are the same bet. Count the quarterbacks likely to throw a pass here: Tampa Bay has neither Mayfield nor Browning available, so its snaps go to a backup and an undrafted rookie, while the Jets may give Geno Smith one series before handing the rest to a rookie fourth-rounder and another arm behind him. That's three-plus quarters of deep-roster offense on both sidelines, in a game following two days of joint practices these teams have already used to get their live work in.
We're on the under 34.5, and shop it, because preseason totals are all over the map.
Commanders +3.5 Vs. Miami
Miami is a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 35.5, which is a lot to lay for a team nobody can say much good about.
These two also held joint practices, and by all accounts Washington won them handily. Jayden Daniels (WAS) was the story in the passing game, and Washington's pass rush was right behind him. Washington wasn't flawless, as the interior offensive line didn't look great and the run game was spotty, but the sessions were lopsided.
Which is exactly why we won't see Daniels tonight. Dan Quinn has no reason to put him out there, especially with Washington already down Laremy Tunsil (WAS) up front. The Commanders should give at least a couple of series to Marcus Mariota (WAS), followed by a seventh-round rookie and possibly Sam Hartman (WAS). Mariota wasn't healthy in Week 1 last year, so a few live reps make sense for him here.
Miami's side is thinner. This is essentially a second-string offense outside of De'Von Achane (MIA) and a few offensive linemen. Malik Willis (MIA) is likely to get some reps, but probably not many coming off joint practices, and head coach Jeff Hafley's version of the plan was "I plan on playing him, but things could change," which is the oldest sentence in the August dictionary. Behind Willis are two deep-roster arms.
The honest counterpoint runs against our own side. Dan Quinn, Washington's head coach, is roughly 7-19 all time in the preseason with similar numbers against the spread, and preseason lines are tight enough that those two records usually track each other. We're taking the personnel read over it, and the distinction matters: Payton's 6-0 is a tendency, a coach who keeps choosing to play his people and put up points, while Quinn's 7-19 is an outcome in games he was never trying to win.
The Miami problem in one line: we're being asked to lay more than a field goal on a team projected to be the worst in the league, whose starters may not play, and who lost the joint practices when they did.
Set the records aside and the bet is simple. Commanders +3.5.
How To Shop A Three-Game Preseason Card: A Worked Example
Preseason is the one month where the number you get is often worth more than the read that got you there. Limits are low, books disagree violently, and nobody is trading these games hard.
Tonight's card shows it. Tampa Bay was +6.5 at most books and +7 or +7.5 at a few others. That gap decides a seven-point game outright: at +7.5 you're still alive when the Jets win by exactly seven, at +6.5 you aren't, and seven is one of the most common margins in football. Same opinion, materially different bet, and across a season of these the gap compounds.
Doing that by hand across a dozen apps is how people end up settling. The tool scans DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and the rest of the major books on one page and puts the no-vig fair number beside each price, so the best available line is visible instead of assumed. Our live odds screen is where we start every one of these cards.
If any of that is new, three short guides cover the mechanics: how to bet the NFL preseason, how sportsbooks build in their margin, and how to use the odds screen. For where the exchange prices sit against the books this month, our NFL preseason odds breakdown tracks both.
The rest of this weekend's preseason card, including the Saturday games that won't be on YouTube, will be posted free on Tails, with the link in the show description. Our free picks hub is the other place to start.
The Bottom Line
Three games, four plays, one idea holding them together: bet the sideline that has a reason to keep playing. Denver has a coach who treats August like a scoreboard and a backup who put up 376 yards and four touchdowns doing it, so the Broncos are the featured side even without Bo Nix. The Jets said out loud that their starters get fewer than 10 snaps tonight, so Tampa Bay gets the points and the total goes under. Miami is a bad team asking you to lay a field goal and change with quarterbacks it won't commit to, so Washington gets the points.
Preseason is a personnel projection, not a talent contest. Read the coaches, then shop the number, because in August those two things are the whole bet. Saturday's picks will be posted free on Tails.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best NFL preseason picks today, Friday, Aug. 14? The featured play is the Denver Broncos -3.5 on the road at Atlanta. Sean Payton is playing the healthy starters he has available, Jarrett Stidham is the most proven preseason quarterback on either sideline, and Payton is 6-0 straight up and 6-0 against the spread in his last six preseason games. The other three plays are Tampa Bay +6.5 at the Jets, under 34.5 in that same game, and Washington +3.5 against Miami.
Why bet the Broncos -3.5 if Bo Nix is not playing? Because the backup gap is the entire bet. Jarrett Stidham threw for 376 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions in roughly four quarters of preseason work spread over two games last year, and he should get about a half here. Atlanta counters with a series or 10 plays of Tua Tagovailoa, then Cooper Rush and an undrafted Division II rookie, with Michael Penix Jr. still not fully recovered from a partially torn ACL.
Why is Tampa Bay +6.5 at the Jets the value side? Aaron Glenn said everyone is playing, but he also said his starters will play 25 to 30 snaps across all three preseason games, which is fewer than 10 per game, and he hasn't decided how to split them. That makes a one-series night realistic for Geno Smith. Tampa Bay also won both joint practices between the teams this week. Laying nearly a touchdown with a Jets offense that may barely appear is too much.
How much do NFL preseason spreads move between books? Enough to matter. The Buccaneers-Jets number sat at 6.5 nearly everywhere on Friday but was up at 7 and 7.5 at some books, so shopping got you a side that survives a seven-point loss. That's why the odds screen matters more in August than in any other month.
