NFL Preseason Odds: Kalshi Prices for Every Week 1 Game
Updated August 13, 2026 · 18 min read · by Jake Hari
Kalshi runs a two-sided win market on every NFL preseason game, and preseason Week 1 is a 16-game weekend: six games Thursday night, three Friday, seven Saturday. This is the permanent home for those prices. The board below refreshes weekly through the preseason and gets rebuilt for next year's preseason on this same URL.
Board prices as of August 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ET. This page refreshes weekly through the preseason and gets rebuilt for preseason 2027 on this same URL.
The Quick Answer
All 16 preseason Week 1 games are trading on Kalshi right now. Thursday's six games are kicking off through the evening as of this update, and their markets trade live through the final whistle. Friday's three games, the ones you can still price ahead of kickoff, are Broncos-Falcons, Dolphins-Commanders, and Bucs-Jets, and our eight-model AI panel scored all three against the market tonight. The headline: Kalshi and 26 sportsbooks agree Denver is a 64-cent favorite in Atlanta, and the panel, working from verified participation reports, calls that game a coin flip. The full boards, every seat's number, and the preseason fine print that decides who gets paid are below.
Free: The Weekly PM Market Brief — the AI panel's graded record, the week's biggest market-vs-model gaps, and what's spiking next. One email, Sundays. The signup box is at the bottom of this page, or just keep reading: Friday's three verdicts come with every seat's number.
New to Kalshi event markets? Start with how the contracts really work, because preseason is the one month where the settlement rules are most of the analysis.
Friday's Three Games: The Board
Friday, August 14 is the slate you can still get ahead of: all three games kick off at 7:00 PM ET. Here is where Kalshi's mid-market price, the sportsbooks' vig-free consensus, and the panel's blended probability sit on each team. Book Fair is the best-price de-vig number across the 26 sportsbooks quoting each game; it is a reference point, not a betting threshold. Panel Blend is the average of eight models' final-round probabilities, counted the way the market counts them, with half credit for a tie.
| Game | Kickoff | Team | Kalshi Mid | Book Fair | Panel Blend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos @ Falcons | Fri 7:00 PM ET | Broncos | 64.5¢ | 64.7% | 50.1% |
| Falcons | 35.5¢ | 35.3% | 49.9% | ||
| Dolphins @ Commanders | Fri 7:00 PM ET | Dolphins | 61.5¢ | 61.8% | 51.8% |
| Commanders | 38.5¢ | 38.2% | 48.2% | ||
| Buccaneers @ Jets | Fri 7:00 PM ET | Buccaneers | 29.5¢ | 29.9% | 31.1% |
| Jets | 70.5¢ | 70.1% | 68.9% |
Read that middle column against the right one and the story writes itself. On Bucs-Jets, the market and the panel agree within about a point and a half. On the other two games, the panel is 10 to 14 points away from a market that the sportsbooks fully corroborate. Either reading is possible: the crowd may be pricing coach tendencies and preseason track records our panel's evidence file did not include, or the crowd may be pricing the regular-season brand of teams whose regular-season players are mostly watching from the sideline. The panel's case is laid out per game below; the market's case is the price. This page grades both in public when the games settle.
Hottest Prediction Markets Right Now
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · $179M traded
- 2027 Pro Football Champion · $61M traded
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? · $59M traded
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee · $57M traded
- FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner · $54M traded
- Pro Baseball Champion · $53M traded
Every market above links to our full AI model verdict; browse them all on the OddsShopper prediction markets hub, and see how every settled call actually scored on the full graded scoreboard.
Broncos @ Falcons: The 14-Point Argument
The market says Denver 64.5 cents. The panel says 50.1 percent. That is the widest market-vs-model gap on the board, and the argument runs through two quarterback rooms.
The verified participation facts, per Broncos and Falcons reporting fetched tonight: Bo Nix will not play. The game is on artificial turf at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and Nix is coming back from a fractured right ankle; Sean Payton said the decision "was probably something that was already decided maybe like a month ago." Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger handle Denver's quarterback duties Friday, competing for the backup job. On the other sideline, first-year Atlanta head coach Kevin Stefanski starts Tua Tagovailoa, with a stated plan of starters playing at least a series or roughly 10 plays. Stefanski was explicit that the Friday start "doesn't mean he is the Falcons' starting quarterback for the 2026 regular season," and Michael Penix Jr. carries an injury designation at the bottom of the depth chart.
The seats that lean Denver argue duration: Stidham and Ehlinger are experienced veterans playing the entire game with jobs on the line, while Atlanta's starter cameo ends after a drive and hands the rest to an unsettled depth chart. The seats that lean Atlanta argue quality and incentive: a real starting quarterback opens the game at home, and first-year staffs historically want the debut win. Eight seats, working from the same facts, landed within a few points of even, and the blend split the difference almost exactly.
| Model | Broncos win | Falcons win | Tie |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable | 49% | 48% | 3.0% |
| Claude Opus | 45% | 52% | 3.0% |
| Claude Sonnet | 46% | 51% | 3.0% |
| ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | 48% | 49% | 3.0% |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | 52% | 45% | 3.0% |
| Kimi K3 | 49% | 48% | 3.0% |
| GLM 5.2 | 49% | 48% | 3.0% |
| DeepSeek V4 | 51% | 46% | 3.0% |
| Panel blend | 48.6% | 48.4% | 3.0% |
| Kalshi mid (for comparison) | 64.5¢ | 35.5¢ | — |
Dolphins @ Commanders: Known Plan Versus Unknown Plan
Kalshi prices Miami at 61.5 cents. The panel lands at 51.8 percent. The gap here is smaller than the Denver one but built from the same material: the market likes a side much more than the participation evidence does.
What is verified: Miami's first-year head coach Jeff Hafley lists Malik Willis as the starting quarterback on the Dolphins' first 2026 depth chart, and his public posture points at broad participation, with reporting that anyone not managing an injury likely sees the field. Washington released its unofficial depth chart, but none of the sources we pulled tonight confirm which Commanders starters play Friday or how Dan Quinn scripts the quarterback snaps. That asymmetry is the whole game: one plan is known, one is not.
The panel treated the unknown honestly rather than filling it in. Most seats gave Miami a small edge for the confirmed plan and the mobile quarterback who has started preseason games before, then pulled back toward even because Washington's blackout could hide anything from starters playing a full quarter to a roster-battle showcase. Nearly every seat flagged this as its least confident number of the night.
| Model | Dolphins win | Commanders win | Tie |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable | 50% | 47% | 3.0% |
| Claude Opus | 50% | 47% | 3.0% |
| Claude Sonnet | 49% | 48% | 3.0% |
| ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | 51% | 46% | 3.0% |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | 52% | 45% | 3.0% |
| Kimi K3 | 50% | 47% | 3.0% |
| GLM 5.2 | 50% | 47% | 3.0% |
| DeepSeek V4 | 50% | 47% | 3.0% |
| Panel blend | 50.2% | 46.8% | 3.0% |
| Kalshi mid (for comparison) | 61.5¢ | 38.5¢ | — |
Bucs @ Jets: The One Everyone Agrees On
Kalshi says Jets 70.5 cents. The panel says 67.4 percent to win plus half credit on the tie, 68.9 on the market's terms. When eight models and a two-sided market land within two points of each other, that is what a fully priced news story looks like.
The news doing the work: Tampa Bay is down its top two quarterbacks. Baker Mayfield sits, and backup Jake Browning is likely out after injuring his back at practice this week, leaving the offense to two undrafted passers, Connor Bazelak and rookie Jalon Daniels, for four quarters. Aaron Glenn's Jets are the other side of the mirror: "Everyone's playing," per Glenn, with starters opening the game on a limited script of roughly 25 to 30 plays across the preseason, and newly acquired Geno Smith taking his first game snaps for the team. Every seat on the panel named this the clearest edge on the slate, and none of them could get the Jets past the low 70s, because preseason scores compress once both benches empty in the second half.
| Model | Buccaneers win | Jets win | Tie |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable | 31% | 66% | 3.0% |
| Claude Opus | 31% | 66% | 3.0% |
| Claude Sonnet | 30% | 67% | 3.0% |
| ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | 29% | 68% | 3.0% |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | 28% | 69% | 3.0% |
| Kimi K3 | 30% | 67% | 3.0% |
| GLM 5.2 | 30% | 67% | 3.0% |
| DeepSeek V4 | 28% | 69% | 3.0% |
| Panel blend | 29.6% | 67.4% | 3.0% |
| Kalshi mid (for comparison) | 29.5¢ | 70.5¢ | — |
More live boards from the same panel: Super Bowl 2027: AI verdict on all 32 teams — the Rams lead that board at 15¢ · Kalshi NFL Picks: every market, AI-scored · Prediction markets vs sportsbooks: today's gaps
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: Claude Fable 84% on 508 graded calls · Claude Opus 85% on 578 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 84% on 556 graded calls · GPT 84% on 5,500 graded calls · Gemini 86% on 4,292 graded calls · Kimi 83% on 2,345 graded calls · GLM 81% on 2,367 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 2,392 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
These verdicts were generated the evening of August 13, 2026, from a price-blind protocol: each model received the same verified participation card and no market prices, then revised once after reading the other seats' anonymized reasoning.
Event contracts are CFTC-regulated financial products offered on exchanges such as Kalshi, available to eligible U.S. residents 18+. The panel's probabilities are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice; market prices move constantly, and nothing here suggests any forecast or strategy will be profitable.
Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the markets settle: the full graded scoreboard tracks each model's hit rate across thousands of settled calls.
For the coaching-tendency side of the argument, the panel's sibling piece Coach Speak breaks down why preseason coach quotes are the single biggest edge in these markets.
Where the Panel Changed Its Mind
The convergence round is the part of this process no other odds page has: after round one, each seat reads the other seven's anonymized reasoning and may revise with a stated reason. Friday's slate produced real movement, almost all of it on the Denver game.
- Claude Opus moved Broncos 52% → 45% on Broncos @ Falcons.
- Claude Sonnet moved Broncos 34% → 46% on Broncos @ Falcons.
- Claude Sonnet moved Buccaneers 21% → 30% on Buccaneers @ Jets.
- Kimi K3 moved Broncos 44% → 49% on Broncos @ Falcons.
- Kimi K3 moved Buccaneers 36% → 30% on Buccaneers @ Jets.
- GLM 5.2 moved Broncos 38% → 49% on Broncos @ Falcons.
- GLM 5.2 moved Buccaneers 25% → 30% on Buccaneers @ Jets.
- DeepSeek V4 moved Broncos 43% → 51% on Broncos @ Falcons.
The biggest arc belongs to Claude Sonnet, which opened as the panel's strongest Falcons believer and moved 12 points toward Denver after reading the room: "the deciding fact is duration-weighted QB quality — Stidham/Ehlinger play the full 60 minutes as competent veteran backups fighting for a job, while Tua's 'a series or 10 plays' cameo gives way to Atlanta's untested QB3 for three-plus quarters." GLM 5.2 made the same trade for the same reason, 38 to 49. The seat that did not move is worth quoting too. Claude Opus held its Falcons lean and said why: "a starter-caliber opening drive at home is the more concrete edge," while conceding the Denver case was real enough to cap its own number. On Bucs-Jets the revisions ran both directions and netted out to nearly nothing, which is its own signal: the quarterback news is priced, and the debate is only about how much.
The Preseason Trap: Read the Fine Print Before the Favorite
Preseason markets look like regular NFL markets and settle like something else. Four traps, each one pulled from tonight's actual board or the market's actual rules text.
The favorite is trap-shaped by construction. A preseason game is not decided by the players who made the team famous. Starters play a scripted handful of snaps or none at all; the outcome usually belongs to second and third units, and the coaching staff's private priorities, by the third quarter. Tonight's board is the cleanest demonstration you will ever get: Denver at 64.5 cents with the named starting quarterback confirmed out, priced identically by Kalshi and by 26 sportsbooks, while a panel fed only the participation facts calls it even. One of those two positions is wrong, and this page will say which one out loud when the market settles.
Ties are real, and they pay 50 cents. Preseason football has had no overtime since 2021: a game tied after regulation simply ends. Kalshi's game markets handle this in the rules text, not the headline. Verbatim, from the Denver-Atlanta market's own rules:
The following market refers to the team who wins the Denver vs Atlanta professional football game originally scheduled for Aug 14, 2026. If the game ends in a tie, the market will resolve to $0.50 for each team. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours from its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is not started within 48 hours, the market will resolve to a fair market price.
Every "Will X win" contract on this board is really "Will X win, with a tie paying half." The panel priced ties at about 3 percent per game, which sounds small until you remember a 50-cent settlement on a 70-cent position is a bigger haircut than most holders have modeled.
The postponement clause is stranger than you think. Read that rules text again: a game postponed past 48 hours does not void. It "will resolve to a fair market price," meaning the exchange settles you at a determined value rather than returning your position. Regular bettors are used to postponed-game bets refunding. This market can settle a game that never happened. August weather in the Southeast makes this clause less theoretical than it looks.
The books leave; the exchange stays. Every pregame game on this weekend's slate is quoted by 25 or more traditional sportsbooks per side, so preseason is not a books-are-absent story. The difference shows up at kickoff: when Thursday's early games went live, their pregame moneylines came off the sportsbook feed while Kalshi's markets kept trading, and the live prices on tonight's board above are the receipts. On an exchange you can price a preseason game in the third quarter; at most books, the pregame number you didn't take is simply gone. Volume is honest too: the Denver-Atlanta market alone has traded over 84,000 contracts between its two sides, real two-sided liquidity for an August exhibition. For the standing version of this discipline applied to Kalshi's biggest markets, see Fine Print Watch, our weekly settlement-risk column.
The Full Weekend Board: All 16 Games
Slate: Thursday, Aug 13 through Saturday, Aug 15 · Prices refresh with this page's update stamp above. Thursday's games are marked as they stood at the last update; in-progress markets keep trading on Kalshi until the game ends, and their prices below are live snapshots, not pregame numbers.
| Matchup | Kickoff (ET) | Status | Team | Kalshi Mid |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions @ Bengals | Thu 7:00 PM ET | In progress (Halftime) | Lions | 32.5¢ |
| Bengals | 65.5¢ | |||
| Packers @ Steelers | Thu 7:00 PM ET | In progress (Halftime) | Packers | 45.5¢ |
| Steelers | 53.0¢ | |||
| Colts @ Patriots | Thu 7:30 PM ET | In progress (1:52 - 2nd) | Colts | 47.5¢ |
| Patriots | 52.5¢ | |||
| Cardinals @ Raiders | Thu 8:00 PM ET | In progress (11:20 - 2nd) | Cardinals | 63.5¢ |
| Raiders | 36.5¢ | |||
| Chargers @ Texans | Thu 8:00 PM ET | In progress (15:00 - 2nd) | Chargers | 52.5¢ |
| Texans | 47.5¢ | |||
| Titans @ 49ers | Thu 9:00 PM ET | Pregame | Titans | 71.5¢ |
| 49ers | 27.5¢ | |||
| Broncos @ Falcons | Fri 7:00 PM ET | Pregame | Broncos | 64.5¢ |
| Falcons | 35.5¢ | |||
| Dolphins @ Commanders | Fri 7:00 PM ET | Pregame | Dolphins | 61.5¢ |
| Commanders | 38.5¢ | |||
| Buccaneers @ Jets | Fri 7:00 PM ET | Pregame | Buccaneers | 29.5¢ |
| Jets | 70.5¢ | |||
| Panthers @ Bills | Sat 1:00 PM ET | Pregame | Panthers | 39.5¢ |
| Bills | 60.5¢ | |||
| Browns @ Bears | Sat 1:00 PM ET | Pregame | Browns | 62.5¢ |
| Bears | 37.5¢ | |||
| Vikings @ Giants | Sat 1:00 PM ET | Pregame | Vikings | 55.5¢ |
| Giants | 44.5¢ | |||
| Jaguars @ Saints | Sat 4:00 PM ET | Pregame | Jaguars | 44.5¢ |
| Saints | 55.5¢ | |||
| Rams @ Chiefs | Sat 4:00 PM ET | Pregame | Rams | 44.5¢ |
| Chiefs | 56.5¢ | |||
| Eagles @ Ravens | Sat 7:00 PM ET | Pregame | Eagles | 63.5¢ |
| Ravens | 36.0¢ | |||
| Cowboys @ Seahawks | Sat 8:00 PM ET | Pregame | Cowboys | 41.5¢ |
| Seahawks | 57.5¢ |
The Receipts: Books Versus Kalshi on Every Pregame Game
For every game that has not kicked off, here is the best sportsbook price per side across the full 26-book board, the implied and vig-free probabilities, and Kalshi's live bid, ask, and mid. Sub-point gaps are noise on a market this efficient; the receipts exist so you never have to take the board's word for it.
| Game | Team | Best Book Price | Implied | De-Vig Fair | Kalshi Bid/Ask | Kalshi Mid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@SF 08-13 | Titans | -256 (BookMaker) | 71.9% | 72.1% | 71¢ / 72¢ | 71.5¢ |
| TEN@SF 08-13 | 49ers | +260 (OnyxOdds) | 27.8% | 27.9% | 27¢ / 28¢ | 27.5¢ |
| DEN@ATL 08-14 | Broncos | -190 (PointsBet) | 65.5% | 64.7% | 64¢ / 65¢ | 64.5¢ |
| DEN@ATL 08-14 | Falcons | +180 (Pinnacle) | 35.7% | 35.3% | 35¢ / 36¢ | 35.5¢ |
| MIA@WAS 08-14 | Dolphins | -164 (FanDuel) | 62.1% | 61.8% | 61¢ / 62¢ | 61.5¢ |
| MIA@WAS 08-14 | Commanders | +160 (TheScore) | 38.5% | 38.2% | 38¢ / 39¢ | 38.5¢ |
| TB@NYJ 08-14 | Buccaneers | +230 (TheScore) | 30.3% | 29.9% | 29¢ / 30¢ | 29.5¢ |
| TB@NYJ 08-14 | Jets | -245 (Bally) | 71.0% | 70.1% | 70¢ / 71¢ | 70.5¢ |
| CAR@BUF 08-15 | Panthers | +136 (DraftKings) | 42.4% | 41.5% | 39¢ / 40¢ | 39.5¢ |
| CAR@BUF 08-15 | Bills | -148 (Bally) | 59.7% | 58.5% | 60¢ / 61¢ | 60.5¢ |
| CLE@CHI 08-15 | Browns | -166 (FanDuel) | 62.4% | 61.9% | 62¢ / 63¢ | 62.5¢ |
| CLE@CHI 08-15 | Bears | +160 (BetMGM) | 38.5% | 38.1% | 37¢ / 38¢ | 37.5¢ |
| MIN@NYG 08-15 | Vikings | -130 (DraftKings) | 56.5% | 56.0% | 55¢ / 56¢ | 55.5¢ |
| MIN@NYG 08-15 | Giants | +125 (Circa) | 44.4% | 44.0% | 44¢ / 45¢ | 44.5¢ |
| JAC@NO 08-15 | Jaguars | +120 (Pinnacle) | 45.5% | 45.1% | 44¢ / 45¢ | 44.5¢ |
| JAC@NO 08-15 | Saints | -124 (Bally) | 55.4% | 54.9% | 55¢ / 56¢ | 55.5¢ |
| LAR@KC 08-15 | Rams | +130 (Circa) | 43.5% | 43.0% | 44¢ / 45¢ | 44.5¢ |
| LAR@KC 08-15 | Chiefs | -136 (FanDuel) | 57.6% | 57.0% | 56¢ / 57¢ | 56.5¢ |
| PHI@BAL 08-15 | Eagles | -185 (Bovada) | 64.9% | 63.7% | 63¢ / 64¢ | 63.5¢ |
| PHI@BAL 08-15 | Ravens | +170 (Circa) | 37.0% | 36.3% | 35¢ / 37¢ | 36.0¢ |
| DAL@SEA 08-15 | Cowboys | +135 (Circa) | 42.6% | 41.8% | 41¢ / 42¢ | 41.5¢ |
| DAL@SEA 08-15 | Seahawks | -145 (BetMGM) | 59.2% | 58.2% | 57¢ / 58¢ | 57.5¢ |
What Would Change the Panel's Mind
Four concrete triggers, each checkable before Friday's 7:00 PM ET kickoffs:
- Washington names a participation plan. Any report confirming which Commanders starters play, and for how long, collapses the panel's biggest stated unknown. Starters playing meaningful snaps pushes the Dolphins number down; a backup showcase pushes it up.
- Jake Browning is cleared. If Tampa Bay gets its backup quarterback into the game, the four-quarters-of-undrafted-passers premise weakens and the Jets number comes in.
- Denver's or Atlanta's quarterback script changes. A late change to Nix's status, or a report extending or shrinking Tua's series count, moves the closest game on the board.
- Weather or postponement news. A Friday storm that delays a game engages the 48-hour clause quoted above, and holders of either side should reread it before assuming a refund.
When a trigger fires, this page re-scores on the next refresh rather than pretending the old board still holds.
The DFS Bridge: Preseason Is Snap-Count Season
If you play fantasy football or DFS, preseason Week 1 is not about who wins; it is about who plays, in what order, behind whom. The same participation reporting that drove the panel's verdicts above is the raw material for September lineup decisions, and we track it daily, team by team, in the NFL Training Camp Report on Stokastic. Watch Friday's second quarters, not the first ones: the battles that decide Week 1 roles get settled while the starters hold clipboards.
Settlement Timeline
- Friday, Aug 14, ~10:00 PM ET: all three featured games settle at the final whistle; markets expect expiration by roughly 10 PM ET.
- Saturday, Aug 15: seven more games settle; this board's next refresh covers them.
- Weekly through the preseason: this URL re-scores with each new slate, and the panel's Friday verdicts get graded against settlements on the public scoreboard.
The Bottom Line
Sixteen games, one exchange quoting all of them to the final whistle, 26 sportsbooks quoting the ones that haven't started, and one honest disagreement worth watching: the market says the Broncos are a two-to-one favorite Friday, and eight models that read the participation reports say the game is even. Preseason is the one month where the fine print, the tie rule, and the third-string depth chart are the entire analysis, which is exactly why it is a good month to learn how these markets really settle. The board above will tell you who was right by Saturday morning, and this page will still be here, re-priced, when it does.
