Updated Thursday, September 24, 2026 · by Jake Hari
Tennessee, the biggest favorite of the entire preseason opening week, has not won a regular-season game, and San Francisco, the team it beat that night, is undefeated and sits third on the Super Bowl board.
Below: every preseason Week 1 price, the final, and where both teams stand two weeks into the real season. A Yes contract pays $1 if the team wins, so the price in cents reads as the chance, and a preseason tie settles at 50¢.
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The Board: Every Preseason Week 1 Price, Graded
Prices on this page are from Kalshi: the mids that were live here before each kickoff. Records are through Week 2 of the regular season.
| Game | Favorite, Kalshi mid | Final | Favorite Yes paid | Records now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions at Bengals (Thu 8/13) | Bengals 65.5¢ | Cincinnati 16, Detroit 14 | Yes | CIN 2-0, DET 1-1 |
| Packers at Steelers (Thu 8/13) | Steelers 53.0¢ | Pittsburgh 28, Green Bay 9 | Yes | PIT 1-1, GB 1-1 |
| Colts at Patriots (Thu 8/13) | Patriots 52.5¢ | New England 13, Indianapolis 13 | Tie, 50¢ | NE 1-1, IND 0-2 |
| Cardinals at Raiders (Thu 8/13) | Cardinals 63.5¢ | Arizona 27, Las Vegas 14 | Yes | ARI 1-1, LV 2-0 |
| Chargers at Texans (Thu 8/13) | Chargers 52.5¢ | Los Angeles 27, Houston 7 | Yes | LAC 0-2, HOU 0-2 |
| Titans at 49ers (Thu 8/13) | Titans 71.5¢ | Tennessee 19, San Francisco 13 | Yes | TEN 0-2, SF 2-0 |
| Broncos at Falcons (Fri 8/14) | Broncos 64.5¢ | Denver 27, Atlanta 7 | Yes | DEN 1-1, ATL 0-2 |
| Dolphins at Commanders (Fri 8/14) | Dolphins 61.5¢ | Washington 20, Miami 7 | No | MIA 0-2, WSH 0-2 |
| Buccaneers at Jets (Fri 8/14) | Jets 70.5¢ | Tampa Bay 24, New York 16 | No | NYJ 1-1, TB 0-2 |
| Panthers at Bills (Sat 8/15) | Bills 60.5¢ | Buffalo 29, Carolina 14 | Yes | BUF 2-0, CAR 1-1 |
| Browns at Bears (Sat 8/15) | Browns 60.5¢ | Chicago 34, Cleveland 10 | No | CLE 1-1, CHI 1-1 |
| Vikings at Giants (Sat 8/15) | Vikings 53.5¢ | Minnesota 13, New York 10 | Yes | MIN 2-0, NYG 1-1 |
| Jaguars at Saints (Sat 8/15) | Saints 56.5¢ | Jacksonville 24, New Orleans 20 | No | NO 1-1, JAX 1-1 |
| Rams at Chiefs (Sat 8/15) | Chiefs 55.5¢ | Los Angeles 20, Kansas City 12 | No | KC 2-0, LAR 1-1 |
| Eagles at Ravens (Sat 8/15) | Eagles 65.0¢ | Baltimore 24, Philadelphia 7 | No | PHI 2-0, BAL 1-1 |
| Cowboys at Seahawks (Sat 8/15) | Seahawks 59.5¢ | Dallas 17, Seattle 7 | No | SEA 2-0, DAL 1-1 |
The favorites finished 8-7-1. A $1 Yes on all 16 favorites at those mids staked $9.66 and returned $8.50, a loss of $1.16. The damage came on Saturday, when the seven favorites went 2-5 and $4.11 staked came back as $2.00. The nine favorites priced at 60¢ or higher went 5-4, which is what a coin flip looks like when you paid for a lean.
The Collapse: Tennessee Was The Surest Thing In August
A Yes on the Titans in San Francisco cost 72¢, the highest ask on any of the 16 games, and they won 19-13. Six weeks later Tennessee is 0-2 with 30 points scored and 47 allowed, and the playoff contract trades at 5¢, second-lowest in the league ahead of only Miami. San Francisco is 2-0 with 62 scored and 20 allowed, the playoff contract trades at 78¢, and the Super Bowl contract at 9¢ sits third behind Buffalo and the Rams at 13¢ each.
That August price was never a claim about the Titans' season. It was a read on who would play, and for how long, in an exhibition where the fourth quarter belongs to players who will not make the roster. The 49ers lost that game on the depth chart, then opened the real season by outscoring two opponents 62-20. The most lopsided price of the preseason and the standings six weeks later point in exactly opposite directions.
The Surprise: The Teams That Lost In August Are The Ones Winning
Eight teams are 2-0. Five of them lost their preseason opener: Las Vegas, San Francisco, Kansas City, Philadelphia and Seattle.
Philadelphia was Saturday's biggest favorite at 65¢ in Baltimore and lost 24-7 on a night the Inquirer's morning preview had said not to expect Jalen Hurts. The Eagles are 2-0 and the playoff contract trades at 78¢. Kansas City was a 55.5¢ favorite at home against the Rams and lost 20-12; the Chiefs are 2-0, have outscored opponents 64-40, and the playoff contract trades at 81¢. Seattle lost 17-7 to Dallas as a 59.5¢ favorite; the Seahawks are 2-0 and have allowed 17 points in two games. Las Vegas was a 36.5¢ underdog against Arizona and lost by 13; the Raiders are 2-0 with 53 scored and 27 allowed, and the playoff contract still trades at only 31¢, the one 2-0 team the market has not yet believed.
Add up the 15 preseason games that had a winner and the winners are 14-16 in the regular season while the losers are 17-13. The score of an August exhibition told you nothing about September, and if anything it told you the wrong thing.
What A Preseason Price Is Good For
The price did better than the score. The 16 teams that were favored in August are 19-13 in the regular season; the 16 underdogs are 13-19. Six of the eight 2-0 teams were preseason favorites (Cincinnati, Buffalo, Minnesota, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Seattle), and five of the eight 0-2 teams were preseason underdogs (Indianapolis, Houston, Atlanta, Washington, Tampa Bay). A preseason price is built from the roster, the venue and the participation reports, and those are the same ingredients that decide September. The final score is built from the fourth quarter.
Tampa Bay is the cleanest case. The Buccaneers won 24-16 as a 29.5¢ underdog with two undrafted quarterbacks playing all four quarters, and they are 0-2 now. The market had them right and the scoreboard had them wrong.
The other thing a preseason price teaches is the settlement text. Colts at Patriots ended 13-13, preseason games do not go to overtime, and every holder of either side settled at 50¢ under the tie clause this page quoted in August. The standing version of that discipline, applied to the biggest markets on the exchange every week, runs in Fine Print Watch, and how the contracts work covers the rules before you buy anything.
What It Is Not
A preseason price expires at the final whistle. Cleveland was a 60.5¢ road favorite in Chicago because Deshaun Watson was reported to start his first game since the Achilles tear, and the Browns lost 34-10; they are 1-1 now with the playoff contract at 11¢, and none of that has anything to do with August. Miami was a 61.5¢ favorite in Washington, lost 20-7, and is 0-2 with the playoff contract at 3¢, the lowest on the board. Same August result as Cleveland's, opposite season, because the preseason game was never the evidence.
The season markets that matter now are the playoff and Super Bowl boards on the Super Bowl 2027 verdict page, priced weekly with the eight-model panel, and the game-by-game boards at Kalshi NFL Picks. To shop a regular-season price across every book against the exchange, the live NFL odds screen carries all of them on one page, and the daily gap check runs on the prediction markets versus sportsbooks board. Next August, when the exhibition prices come back, how to bet NFL preseason is the place to start, and this page is the record of what those prices were worth once the real games began.
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Every market above links to our full AI model verdict; browse them all on the OddsShopper prediction markets hub, and see how every settled call actually scored on the full graded scoreboard.
Projections and hit rates on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
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