If you have landed on "ProphetX vs Novig," you are already ahead of most bettors, because you have figured out the thing the marketing buries: neither one is a sportsbook. They are two of the sports-first US betting exchanges: order-book marketplaces where you trade through a live book instead of against a sportsbook, and in June 2026 they both crossed the same finish line, winning federal approval to run as CFTC-regulated prediction markets (ProphetX on June 11, Novig on June 16) in the same family as Kalshi and Polymarket. So this is not a fight between an exchange and a book. It is two versions of the same idea, and the honest question is not "which one is the real exchange" but "which one holds the deeper market, the better price, and the offer worth claiming for the bet in front of me." That answer moves around, and by the end you will have a rule for deciding it every time instead of a logo you root for.
In Summary
Fees, availability, offer terms and the volume tape on this page were re-checked on October 25, 2026, against Novig's own published terms, ProphetX's CFTC filings and the dated reprints of its fee schedule and offer, the CFTC's filing pages and the two volume trackers, and the live price pair below was pulled from the OddsShopper odds screen that evening.
- Both Are Exchanges, Not Sportsbooks. ProphetX and Novig each run a two-sided order book: you make your own price on an outcome (post the odds you want and wait for a taker) or take a price another user has already posted. Neither bakes a bookmaker's margin into the price the way a sportsbook does: ProphetX runs a pure peer-to-peer book, while Novig matches users too and can add its own market-making liquidity when a market is thin.
- Both Are Now CFTC-regulated. Following June 2026 federal approval, ProphetX and Novig both operate as CFTC-regulated, sports-focused prediction-market exchanges, the Kalshi/Polymarket bucket rather than the state-licensed-sportsbook bucket. None of this is legal advice, and coverage can change, so confirm either one operates where you live.
- Availability Is No Longer The Split, But It Is Still State-Specific. Both regulated exchanges are live. ProphetX launched nationwide on June 18, 2026 and lists 49 states and DC, everywhere but Nevada, a list it has not revised since agreeing on October 10 to leave Connecticut. Novig (Ludlow Exchange, CFTC designation June 16, 2026) retired its sweepstakes product and relaunched as a real-money exchange on August 4, 2026; its help center says it is available nationwide except Nevada, Arizona and Michigan, with a 21+ rule. Connecticut ordered both of them to stop offering sports contracts to its residents on September 10 and said on October 10 that ProphetX agreed to leave the state; Ohio sent both a cease-and-desist dated October 2 with an October 16 deadline, which passed with neither exchange saying publicly what it did. Live-where-you-are is a question each app's location check answers, not a blanket promise.
- The Pricing Edge Is The Same On Both: No Baked-In Vig. A book charging -110 on a coin flip is pricing a 50% outcome at 52.4%. An exchange lets you make or take that market near a fair +100, and neither one hides a bookmaker's margin in the line (ProphetX charges 2% of your net winnings in each market; Novig charges nothing on a pre-game straight trade and a small taker fee on live straight trades, season-long futures and parlays).
- The Welcome Offers Differ. ProphetX gives new users Trade $50, Get $75 in incentive funds (code ODDS2), terms it has filed to cut to Trade $40, Get $40 for anyone qualifying on or after October 29. Novig's own standard offer is $50 in Trade Credits on a $10 deposit, raised from $25 on October 1, 2026; our full Novig promo-code breakdown has the current terms.
- The Move Is A Portfolio, Not A Loyalty Pledge. The routing rule is at the bottom of the page; this week it pointed at Novig on both sides of the Monday night game, and it will point somewhere else on the next one.
ProphetX Vs Novig: Two Exchanges, Same Species
Start with what the two platforms share, because it is most of the story. On a traditional sportsbook, the house posts a number and takes the other side of your bet, so it profits when you lose. On a prediction exchange, and both of these are exchanges, you are not simply taking a number a sportsbook set against you. Prices come off a live order book, and the platform is not sitting across the table from every bet the way a bookmaker is. You either take a price sitting on the book or make your own and wait for someone to fill it. ProphetX has been vocal about this structure, publicly opposing the affiliated trading arms some competitors use to seed their own books; its pitch is a clean peer-to-peer market where the platform never takes a position against you. Novig runs the same style of order book with one wrinkle worth knowing: its retail trades are matched between users, but when liquidity is thin Novig can step in as a market maker and quote a price itself. So both are exchanges rather than sportsbooks, with ProphetX leaning hardest into pure peer-to-peer and Novig blending user matching with its own market-making liquidity.
The regulatory picture is where the "vs" framing finally has something real to chew on, and even there the two are closer than they look. In June 2026 both platforms secured a Designated Contract Market approval from the CFTC, the same federal designation that governs prediction markets rather than sportsbooks. ProphetX moved first and launched within days: it is federally regulated, with state-specific availability, and because state legislatures and regulators are still contesting where sports prediction markets can operate, the app — not any article's map — is the reliable answer on whether your state is covered this week. Novig received its designation in June 2026, enforces a 21+ account rule, retired its sweepstakes product, and relaunched as a real-money exchange on August 4, 2026; its help center names three excluded states, Nevada, Arizona and Michigan, and its app enforces them. The read on availability, then: both doors are open in most of the country, the remaining split is Novig's flat 21+ floor against ProphetX's 18+ rule (21+ in some states, per DeFi Rate's October page), and the states are deciding the rest month by month (Connecticut and Ohio have both ordered the two exchanges out this fall), which is why each app's location check is the final word.
Here is the whole comparison in one place:
| ProphetX | Novig | |
|---|---|---|
| What It Is | Peer-to-peer prediction-market exchange | Peer-to-peer prediction-market exchange |
| Regulation | CFTC-regulated (federal approval, June 2026) | CFTC-regulated (federal approval, June 2026) |
| How You Bet | Make or take a price on a live order book | Make or take a price on a live order book |
| Who Is On The Other Side | Other users only (no affiliated market maker, per ProphetX) | Other users, plus Novig's market maker when liquidity is thin |
| Availability | Live nationwide since June 18, 2026; its own list still said 49 states (all but Nevada) on Oct. 25, unrevised after its Connecticut exit (state regulator, Oct. 10) and after Ohio's Oct. 16 deadline passed without a public word; confirm in-app | Real-money exchange live since Aug. 4, 2026; nationwide except Arizona, Michigan and Nevada; 21+; Connecticut unresolved; Ohio's Oct. 16 deadline passed without a public word; sued Missouri Oct. 16; confirm in-app |
| Where The Cost Lives | 2% fee on net gains per market on straight trades (its filed schedule); parlays 0% per most reprints, a small price-dependent taker fee per DeFi Rate's October page | No maker fee; $0 on pre-game straight trades; live taker fee 0.06 x P x (1 - P) per contract in every sport since Oct. 15 (0.03 before that outside NCAAF, MLB and NHL); futures 0.06 x P x (1 - P) (golf and tennis exempt); parlays 0.10 x P x (1 - P) per contract, already included in the quoted price; makers get 25% of the live taker fee back since Oct. 22 (50% before) |
| Track Record Cited | $76M in weekly volume, Oct. 12 to 18, its record week, and $70M, Oct. 18 to 24 (DeFi Rate) | $742M in weekly volume, Oct. 12 to 18 (PM Pulse); $818M, Oct. 18 to 24, its record week, and $4.5B since Aug. 4 (DeFi Rate) |
| New-User Offer | Trade $50, Get $75 (code ODDS2) through Oct. 28; Trade $40, Get $40 from Oct. 29 per its Oct. 15 CFTC filing | Deposit $10, Get $50 in Trade Credits, paid as five $10 credits that each expire after 30 days (Novig's terms since Oct. 1) |
The row bettors skim past but shouldn't is "where the cost lives," because it decides more money than the rest of the table: Novig's cost is computable before you take a live price and absent on a pre-game straight, ProphetX's lands only on winners, and the worked example further down puts a number on what that difference is worth. First, what changed this week.
What Moved Since October 16
Nine days of tape, two CFTC orders, and a welcome-offer cut that has a date on it. Everything below is dated:
- October 22: Novig halved what it pays makers; the taker fee did not move. Novig's amended Maker Credit Program, filed October 5 and certified by the CFTC on October 20, took effect at 6 a.m. ET on October 22. The taker side is unchanged: nothing on a pre-game straight trade, 0.06 x P x (1 - P) per contract on live and futures straight trades, 0.10 on parlays inside the quote. The maker side is not: a resting live order now earns back 25% of the taker fee collected when it fills, down from 50%, and a fee-carrying futures order earns 50%, down from the 70% that NFL and college football futures, the only futures markets in the old program, had paid. The second tier is the new part. Market makers who enroll by email and meet Novig's width, depth, coverage and uptime standards across a whole league earn a Performance credit of another 50% on live fills, which puts a qualifying maker at 75% all-in, above the old flat 50%; Novig's own terms recommend an account balance of at least $250,000 for it and warn that the standards require resting orders across many contracts at once. For a reader of this page the fee you pay is the same as last week; the subsidy that was paying people to rest the orders you take got smaller, which is worth watching in the depth column below. Housekeeping: Novig's API fee page, which still read 0.03 "currently" on October 16, now reads 0.06, so the only 0.03 left on Novig's own pages is a stale line inside its help-center answer on multi-level fills.
- October 29: ProphetX cuts its welcome offer to Trade $40, Get $40. The amendment ProphetX filed with the CFTC on October 15 takes effect October 29. The qualifying trade requirement drops from $50 to $40, the incentive funds drop from $75 to $40, paid $10 on Day 1, $10 on Day 8 and $20 on Day 15 with the later installments still conditional on using the earlier ones, and the 80-cent price cap on qualifying trades is removed, so a trade at any price counts. The filing is explicit that the change is prospective: anyone whose qualification date, the day the $50 in qualifying trades is complete, falls before October 29 stays on the $75 terms and receives every installment under them, including the ones credited after the 29th. So the offer at the bottom of this page is live as written through October 28, and the page will carry the $40 terms once they take effect. ProphetX's filing frames the cut as making the program "neutral as to price" and shrinking the value of any strategy aimed at the credit rather than at trading.
- October 21 and 22: the CFTC stayed contracts on each exchange. Two orders landed within a day of each other. On October 21 the Commission instituted proceedings and stayed ProphetX's NFL Weekly Scorigami contracts, listed by self-certification on October 15, on the question of whether a contract on a never-before-seen final score is a swap under the Commodity Exchange Act at all; ProphetX told Front Office Sports it was asked to defer the listing rather than withdraw it, and that it complied and sent the agency more analysis. On October 22 the Commission posted an order telling Novig's Ludlow Exchange to withdraw the class certifications behind its NBA and WNBA Prop contracts and staying their listing while it decides whether the certifications were false, citing the span of what one filing covered: a team's points in a game at one end and, at the other, whether a particular player attempts the first three-pointer of a particular quarter, which the order calls a heightened manipulation risk. Novig's written answer is due November 19. Legal Sports Report reported the stayed contracts had not been listed, so no one holds a position in them. Neither order touches the game markets this page prices, but both are the first time the regulator has stopped a listing on either exchange, and they arrive as each one widens its board: ProphetX's own market list has carried a Politics section since October 14 (45 markets at this pull) and a Counter-Strike 2 Major suite certified October 21, and Novig's developer account said F1, NASCAR and boxing markets went live on October 22 with first-half NFL and college football markets now trading in-play.
- The tape: Novig's biggest week yet, and the two trackers finally line up. DeFi Rate now has Novig's October 24 posted, so for the first time on this page both venues' "last 7 days" cover the same window, October 18 to 24: Novig $818 million, with $221 million actually paid for the contracts, against $70 million on ProphetX, nearly twelve to one. Novig set a record day of $207 million on Sunday, October 18 ($50 million paid), and has traded $4.5 billion since the August 4 relaunch. ProphetX's own record week was the one before, October 12 to 18 at $76 million, against $743 million on Novig over the same seven days; PM Pulse's Scoreboard 010, published October 20, scored that Novig week at $742 million, within $1 million of DeFi Rate's count, and added a split this page has not had before: $368 million of it was straight markets and the rest combos, which was still enough to edge Crypto.com by $10 million once combos are set aside. Over the ten days since the last pull's data, October 15 to 24, Novig traded $1.12 billion to ProphetX's $103.5 million.
- The state map: Ohio's deadline passed with most of the board still live, and Novig went to court in Missouri. Ohio's October 16 deadline came and went. News 5 Cleveland found most of the ten platforms still offering sports contracts at the close of business that day, and the Casino Control Commission later told Sports Betting Dime that one company had confirmed compliance (Plus500US, per the station's records request) and two were suing it, Polymarket US and one it did not name. Neither ProphetX nor Novig has said publicly what it did, neither availability list has changed, and Governor Mike DeWine said the state will "actually go out and file these suits"; on October 20 the commission also told its sports-gaming and fantasy licensees to stop providing services to unlicensed sports-contract platforms in Ohio, market making, liquidity provision, integrity monitoring and technology named among them, and to certify compliance by October 30. The same Friday the Ohio deadline ran out, Novig's Ludlow Exchange sued Missouri's attorney general and gaming commission in federal court in the Eastern District of Missouri, calling its contracts "quintessential swaps" under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction and asking for an injunction as that state's own cease-and-desist deadlines expired; ProphetX has filed no such suit that this page can find. Connecticut is unchanged: ProphetX agreed on October 10 to leave, Novig's status there is still unresolved. ProphetX's Rule 4.6 change took effect on schedule on October 23, so a fill within 40% of fair market value is now presumed good, while trades outside the band can still be cancelled at the exchange's discretion.
And the live pair I pulled from the OddsShopper odds screen at 9:45 p.m. ET on October 25 for Monday night's Cowboys at Eagles game (both teams 2-4, kickoff 8:15 p.m. ET October 26 at Lincoln Financial Field, with Dallas the road favorite): the screen's de-vigged fair price on the exchange rows was Dallas 67.0%, or -203, and Philadelphia 33.0%, or +203 (it drifted a few tenths lower on some sportsbook rows). Novig posted -203 on Dallas and +199 on Philadelphia, a two-way hold of 0.4%. ProphetX posted -209 and +196, a 1.4% hold on the screen, and with its 2% cut of winnings taken off by me (I still cannot tell whether the screen's row folds the fee in, so I assume it does not and bracket the gap), -209 becomes about -213 net and +196 about +192.
The best sportsbook price on Dallas was -215 at Circa, then -218 at Caesars, with Pinnacle and Bet105 at -222, DraftKings and BetMGM at -225 and FanDuel at -230. On Philadelphia the best book price was +191 at Pinnacle and Bet105, both offshore; among US-licensed books it was +190 at FanDuel and Hard Rock, with DraftKings at +185 and Caesars at +182.
Read it against fair: Novig's -203 on Dallas implies 66.99%, a few hundredths of a point above the 66.95% fair, and because a pre-game straight trade on Novig carries no fee, that is the price you pay. Its +199 on Philadelphia implies 33.44%, four-tenths of a point above fair. ProphetX's -209 implies 67.6% before the fee and about 68.1% after it, more than a point over fair, and its +196 is 33.8% before and about 34.2% after. So neither exchange price is an edge this week, but both exchanges beat every sportsbook on both sides: Novig's -203 is twelve cents better than Circa's -215 on the favorite, and its +199 is eight cents better than the best book on the dog. The depth column is again the number I keep coming back to, and it moved: Novig's liquidity figure read 1,382 behind its Dallas price and 7,480 behind Philadelphia, against 280 and 2,410 on ProphetX's two rows, three to five times Novig's way rather than the twelve-to-hundredfold gaps of the last two pulls, and ProphetX's 2,410 behind the Eagles is the largest figure its column has shown on this page (for scale, Kalshi's two rows read 4,726,429 and 2,088,958). The cheaper exchange is still the deeper one, by less, and still nowhere near the deepest venue on the screen. The number that matters is still fair, and the sections below are the method for finding it.
What Moved From October 13 To October 16
Three days of tape, and one fee change that lands on every live trade. Everything below is dated:
- October 15: Novig's live taker fee is now 0.06 in every sport. Novig's help-center fee table, updated that week, listed one live coefficient, 0.06 x P x (1 - P) per contract, for in-game straight trades on the app, the website and the API, and its Maker Credit notice says when: "Effective October 15, 2026, every in-game trade carries a 0.06 taker coefficient, and the credit is 50%." Until Thursday that rate applied only to NCAAF, MLB and NHL markets (since October 8), and every other sport, the NFL included, took 0.03. In money: 100 contracts at 50 cents in a live NFL game now carry $1.50 in fee, up from $0.75. What did not change that day: pre-game straight trades were still fee-free for maker and taker, the maker fee was still zero everywhere, makers still got 50% of the live taker fee back (70% on NFL and college football futures; both cut on October 22, see above), and the two-tier credit program Novig filed on October 5 still showed "10 Day Review" on the CFTC's filing page at that pull. One loose end at the time: Novig's API documentation fee page (docs.novig.com/fees), and a leftover line in the help center's own answer on multi-level fills, still read 0.03 that Friday morning; the fee table and the Maker Credit terms, both dated, carried 0.06, so this page followed those (the API page has since been corrected).
- The tape: both exchanges just printed their biggest seven days on DeFi Rate's tracker. Novig's October 8 to 14 came in at $714 million, its largest seven-day window since the tracker began counting it, with $195 million actually paid for those contracts (the tracker counts contracts at $1 face and prints dollars paid beside the count), and $3.4 billion traded since the August 4 relaunch. ProphetX's October 9 to 15 was $74 million, also its largest window; on the same October 8 to 14 days its daily table sums to about $72.5 million, so the ratio holds at roughly ten to one. The second scorekeeper also checked in: PM Pulse's Scoreboard 009, published October 13, scored October 5 to 11 at $672 million on Novig and $70 million on ProphetX, within $3 million and $1 million of DeFi Rate's count for the same week. The three days since the last pull, October 12 to 14, ran $231 million on Novig against about $25 million on ProphetX.
- October 14: ProphetX put its exchange inside someone else's app. ProphetX announced a partnership with Juice Reel, "an app that enables sports fans to automatically track trading activity across platforms and access a marketplace of sports forecasters whose predictions are backed by verified performance records," whose users can now trade on ProphetX's exchange without leaving Juice Reel. The release says ProphetX handles clearing, custody and market operations, and the partner avoids having to register as an exchange or clearinghouse itself. For this comparison it is a liquidity question: ProphetX is trying to grow the money on the other side of its book through a partner's users, and whether it works will show up in the weekly tape and the depth column, not in the press release.
- The state map: Ohio's deadline was that day, and nothing public had moved. The Casino Control Commission's October 2 notices gave ProphetX, Novig and eight others until October 16 to confirm in writing that they have stopped offering sports event contracts in Ohio. As of that pull, 2:33 a.m. ET on the deadline day, neither exchange had said publicly what it did, and neither availability list had changed: ProphetX still says 49 states, all but Nevada; Novig's help center and its October 8 states post still name only Nevada, Arizona and Michigan. The October 5 Novig blog note that called its Connecticut status "legally disputed" no longer loads, so the Connecticut line here now rests on the state regulator's October 10 statement (ProphetX agreed to leave) and the September 10 orders. ProphetX's Rule 4.6 change was still scheduled for October 23, and it took effect on that date.
And the live pair pulled from the OddsShopper odds screen at 2:33 a.m. ET on October 16 for the Cowboys at Packers game played Sunday night, October 18 (Dallas 2-3, Green Bay 3-2 at the pull), kept here as the record of that read: the screen's de-vigged fair price was Green Bay 51.9%, or -108, and Dallas 48.1%, or +108. Novig posted +108 on Dallas and -111 on Green Bay, a two-way hold under 1%. ProphetX posted +107 and -112, a 1.1% hold on the screen, and with its 2% cut of winnings applied by hand (as above), +107 becomes about +105 net and -112 about -114. The best sportsbook price on Dallas was +105 at Pinnacle and Bet105, both offshore; among US-licensed books it was +101 at Caesars, with DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics and most of the ladder at even money and FanDuel at -102. On Green Bay the best book price was -115 at Circa, then -116 at FanDuel, WynnBET and Ontario's CoolBet, with DraftKings at -120. Read it against fair: Novig's +108 on Dallas implies 48.08%, within a few hundredths of a point of the 48.12% fair, and because a pre-game straight trade on Novig carries no fee, that is the price you pay. ProphetX's +107 implies 48.31% before the fee and about 48.8% after it, two-thirds of a point worse than fair. On Green Bay both exchanges sit on the expensive side: Novig's -111 implies 52.61%, seven-tenths of a point above the 51.88% fair, and ProphetX's -112 is a cent further out, about 53.3% once the fee is in. So the dog is where the exchanges earn their keep this week, the favorite is cheaper on either exchange than at any book (Circa's -115 was the best book number) but above fair everywhere, and neither price is an edge; the one that prints fair is simply the cheapest way to take a side you already like. The depth column told the same story that week: Novig's liquidity figure read 12,898 behind its Dallas price and 4,551 behind Green Bay, against 185 and 373 on ProphetX's two rows (for scale, Kalshi's two rows read 473,721 and 34,323). The cheaper exchange was also the deeper one that week, and still not the deepest venue on the screen. Cheaper is not the same as right, and the October 25 pull above carries the current pair.
What Moved From October 10 To October 13
Three days of tape, plus a stack of filings from the week before that this page had not yet carried. Everything below is dated:
- The October 5 to 11 tape: $669 million on Novig, $69 million on ProphetX. DeFi Rate's volume tracker, read the morning of October 13, put Novig's week at $669 million with a record day of $190 million on Sunday, October 11, and $3.1 billion traded since the August 4 relaunch; ProphetX's same week was $69 million, up from the $62 million PM Pulse counted the week before. Two scorekeepers, so the names stay on the numbers (DeFi Rate counts contracts at their $1 face on both venues, and PM Pulse had not published its October 5 to 11 scoreboard by that pull; it did on October 13, see above), but the ratio was the point: roughly ten to one, a touch wider than the nine to one the prior edition carried.
- ProphetX has filed a contract on Novig's volume. On October 7 ProphetX self-certified with the CFTC a market asking whether Novig's notional traded volume will exceed $2 billion in November 2026, alongside a $1 billion line on Underdog's UDX and October 6 filings on Polymarket US ($10 billion), DKeX ($4 billion) and Rothera ($2 billion). The filings are certifications, not approvals, and this page has not confirmed the Novig contract is on the board yet, but the threshold is worth a glance against the tape: $2 billion in November works out to about $467 million a week, and Novig just printed $669 million on DeFi Rate's count, though that tracker values every contract at $1 face and the contract's own settlement source may define notional volume differently, so treat the $669 million as a generous read rather than the number that settles it. If it lists, the smaller exchange would be pricing the bigger one's growth.
- Novig's fee schedule has a futures row. Novig's own fee page lists a 0.06 x P x (1 - P) taker fee on futures straight trades (golf and tennis futures excepted since September 10), so "fee-free pre-game" is true of game markets, not of a season-long championship or award market. Novig also filed an amended Maker Credit Program with the CFTC on October 5 that replaces the current credits (50% of the taker fee on live markets, 70% on NFL and college football futures) with two tiers, a Base credit of 20% to 30% of the taker fee on live markets and 40% to 60% on futures, plus a Performance credit of 40% to 50% for enrolled market makers that meet its order standards, effective no earlier than the end of the CFTC's ten-business-day review. Makers still pay nothing; the credit they earn back is what is changing.
- ProphetX is widening the band where a fill is presumed good. An October 8 self-certification amends ProphetX's Rule 4.6 so the no-cancellation range runs 40% above and below fair market value instead of 15%, arguing a 15% band "is too narrow to distinguish erroneous prices from bona fide trading on new information" when one play can take a 20-cent contract to 60. The same filing deletes the clause that let the exchange cancel a trade entered after the outcome was "already determined." It takes effect October 23. For a taker that is more finality, with a caveat the filing keeps in plain sight: trades outside the band can still be cancelled at the exchange's discretion, and Rule 4.6(a) still lets ProphetX act on any trade, inside the band or out, to protect market integrity.
- The state map tightened on both. Ohio's Casino Control Commission sent cease-and-desist notices dated October 2 to ten platforms, ProphetX and Novig among them, with an October 16 deadline to confirm in writing that they have stopped offering sports event contracts in the state. Ohio moved a week after the Sixth Circuit ruled on September 25 that federal law does not preempt its gaming statutes, which is the live answer to the question this page keeps getting asked: so far, a CFTC designation has not outranked a state regulator in court. In Connecticut, the Department of Consumer Protection said on October 10 that ProphetX agreed to leave the state entirely, while Novig's own October 5 note called its Connecticut status "legally disputed" and told users to check in-app. Novig's help center names its excluded states outright: Nevada, Arizona and Michigan. The federal side pressed its claim from the other direction the same week: on October 9 the CFTC proposed writing sports event contracts into its definition of a swap, and a companion interim final rule excludes sportsbook and casino wagers from it.
And the live pair pulled from the OddsShopper odds screen at 4:17 a.m. ET on October 13 for the Seahawks at Broncos game played Thursday, October 15 (both teams 3-2 at the pull), kept here as the record of that read: the screen's de-vigged fair price was Seattle 59.2%, or -145, and Denver 40.8%, or +145. Novig posted -150 on Seattle and +144 on Denver, a two-way hold under 1%. ProphetX posted -153 and +139, a 2.3% hold on the screen, and I take its 2% cut of winnings off myself, since I cannot tell whether the screen's row already folds the fee in, so I assume it does not and bracket the gap: +139 becomes about +136 net and -153 about -156. The best sportsbook price on Seattle was -154, shared by FanDuel, Ladbrokes, WynnBET and Ontario's CoolBet. On Denver the best book price was +139 at Pinnacle and Bet105, two offshore books, which matches ProphetX's quote before its fee and beats its net +136; among US-licensed books it was +135 at Circa and Hard Rock, with DraftKings and FanDuel at +130, and the one venue on the whole screen that printed fair itself was theScore's Ontario line at +145. Read it against fair: no side at either exchange beats it. Novig's +144 on Denver implies 41.0%, a fifth of a point of implied probability worse than the 40.8% fair, ProphetX's net +136 implies 42.3%, a point and a half worse, and on Seattle Novig's -150 implies 60.0% against a 59.2% fair, with ProphetX's -153 a half-point further out and its net -156 nearly a full point. That made Novig the cheaper venue on both sides at that pull, not an edge on either. The screen also showed how much was resting behind each price: Novig's liquidity figure read 13,458 behind its Seattle price and 12,601 behind Denver, against 735 and 106 on ProphetX's two rows, on a primetime NFL moneyline (for scale, Kalshi's Seattle row read 732,707). Either exchange was pricing near fair; only one of them was deep enough to fill size. Cheaper is not the same as right, and the October 16 pull above carries the current pair.
What Moved From September 23 To October 10
The September 23 version of this page still had Novig's regulated exchange as not yet launched. That was stale by seven weeks, and the rest of the board has moved since, so here is what changed, dated:
- October 1: Novig raised its standard new-user offer from $25 to $50 in Trade Credits on a $10 deposit. Novig's own landing page reads "Deposit $10+ Get $50 in Trade Credits" as of October 10, and Sports Illustrated's promo page says the $25 bonus has ended. The ProphetX offer did not move: Trade $50, Get $75, paid in three $25 installments on Days 1, 7 and 14, each expiring 45 calendar days after it lands (Covers and DeFi Rate re-verified the terms October 10).
- October 8: Novig doubled its live taker fee on three sports. Its fee schedule at the time read: "Beginning Thursday, October 8, 2026, a 0.06 live taker fee applies to every NCAAF, MLB and NHL market." Every other sport stayed at 0.03 for one more week (the October 15 change above took them all to 0.06), makers still pay nothing, and a pre-game straight trade is still fee-free on both sides. ProphetX's straight-trade schedule is unchanged at 2% of net gains per market; its combo pricing is where the reprints disagree (see the fees section below).
- The volume gap is now measurable, and it is not close. Novig crossed $1 billion in lifetime volume by September 16, roughly six weeks after its August 4 relaunch, and PM Pulse's scoreboard put the week of September 28 to October 4 at $532 million on Novig against $62 million on ProphetX. The old "$5 billion-plus" figure this page carried was a sweepstakes-era number and is gone from the board.
- September 10: Connecticut ordered both exchanges out. The state's Department of Consumer Protection sent cease-and-desist orders to nine platforms, ProphetX and Novig among them, over sports event contracts. The order predates September 23, but the page never carried it, and it is the clearest example yet of why the app's location check outranks any article's map.
The row that mattered most for the rest of this page was the fee one: with Novig charging nothing on a pre-game game market, the "where the cost lives" comparison stopped being commission versus spread. It is 2% of your winnings on one exchange against a taker fee that only exists once the game has started, or on a futures or parlay ticket, on the other.
The No-Vig Math: A Worked Example On Both Exchanges
Here is the promise from the top, paid off with numbers. On Monday night's Cowboys-Eagles game DraftKings wanted -225 and +185, a 4.3% hold; Novig wanted -203 and +199, a 0.4% hold. To see what that gap costs on the same outcome, start with the textbook case. Take the most common line in sports, a near-even game a book like DraftKings or FanDuel prices at -110 on both sides, whether that is an NFL spread or an MLB run line. That -110 implies a 52.4% chance. Add both sides (52.4% plus 52.4%) and you get 104.8%. That extra 4.8 percentage points over a true 100% is the overround: the book's built-in margin, sitting inside the price where you can't see it, which works out to a roughly 4.5% hold.
Strip the vig back out and each side's fair price is 50%, which in American odds is +100. So the number on that game is +100, and the book is making you lay -110 to get it. You are paying 52.4 cents for something worth 50.
Now run the same arithmetic on the live board instead of the textbook one. DraftKings' -225 on Dallas implies 69.2% and its +185 on Philadelphia 35.1%, which add to 104.3%, and the screen de-vigs that ladder to 66.95% and 33.05%, so the book is charging 2.3 cents over fair on the favorite and 2.0 on the dog. Novig's -203 implies 66.99%, five hundredths of a point over fair, and a pre-game straight trade there carries no fee, so that is the whole cost. ProphetX's -209 implies 67.6% on the screen and about 68.1% once its 2% of winnings comes off, a little over a point above fair. Same outcome, four prices: the book's markup, Novig's near-zero, ProphetX's fee, and the fair number they are all measured against.
Now put the same game on either exchange. Because no house margin is folded into the line, the order book can show the other side at +100, the fair number, and if it doesn't, you can make that price yourself and wait for a taker. Laying -110 for a true +100 costs you about 4.5% of your stake in expected value (the single-bettor flip side of that book hold), and getting filled at +100 instead erases that markup. Each exchange still takes its cut in its own way (ProphetX 2% of your net winnings, Novig a taker fee on live trades and nothing on a pre-game straight), so the net gain is a bit smaller than the raw 4.5% and it is not automatic profit. What you are buying is a better price on the identical outcome, and over a season of bets a better price is the whole game.
| The Bet | Price | Implied chance | What you pay for a 50% outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbook (Each Side) | -110 | 52.4% | 52.4 cents (2.4 over fair, the markup) |
| Fair, Vig Removed | +100 | 50.0% | 50 cents |
| Exchange (Make/Take The Other Side) | +100 (minus a small commission or spread) | ~50% | ~50 cents, nudged up a hair by the cost, still well under 52.4 |
That is not hypothetical this week: on Monday night's Cowboys-Eagles moneyline the screen's two-way hold was 4.3% at DraftKings and 4.2% at FanDuel against 0.4% on Novig and 1.4% on ProphetX. The middle row is the one to sit with: +100 is the market-implied fair price, and every cent charged above that fair 50 is margin you were never obligated to pay. Neither exchange is entirely free (a 2% cut of winnings on one, a live-trade taker fee on the other, still trims the net), but both hand you a price far closer to fair than a book's built-in markup. That gap is exactly what the free live odds screen, which shops the number across every major book, is built to expose: the tool surfaces the best available price across the major books and de-vigs it down to a fair, market-implied number, so you know what fair actually is before you decide where to trade. Read the fair price off the book side, then check whether ProphetX or Novig is beating it. That habit is the referee for everything below.
The edge in one linean exchange does not give you a better read on the game. When the after-fee price and available liquidity beat the book's de-vigged fair number, it lets you act on the read you already have at a better executable price. On that principle ProphetX and Novig are twins; the tiebreakers are everything around the price.
Markets And Liquidity: Where An Exchange Actually Delivers
If both platforms strip the same vig, why not flip a coin between them? Because a price is only as good as your ability to get filled at it, and that comes down to liquidity: how much money is sitting on the other side of a market waiting to take your order. This is the quiet weakness of every exchange, and it is where ProphetX and Novig separate.
An exchange price near fair is useless if no one is there to take it. On the biggest markets (an NFL side, an NBA moneyline, a marquee MLB game), you have the best chance of a fast fill at or near the number you want, though you should still check live depth before assuming either exchange can match your full size. Drift toward a niche market (a Tuesday-night total, an obscure prop) and the money on the other side thins out. Your order can sit unmatched, or fill only at a price bad enough to eat the no-vig edge you came for. That is not a bug in one platform; it is the physics of a peer-to-peer market, and it is why the number that matters most when you compare two exchanges is depth.
On that front, the figures worth noting are the weekly tapes. DeFi Rate's tracker put October 18 to 24 at $818 million traded on Novig against $70 million on ProphetX, the first week on this page where both venues' windows line up (Novig publishes each day's trades the next morning, and its October 24 was posted by this pull), the week that followed PM Pulse's scoreboard week of October 12 to 18 at $742 million to ProphetX's $76 million on DeFi Rate's count, and Novig has now traded $4.5 billion since its August 4 real-money relaunch (it crossed $1 billion by September 16), a signal that its order books have been absorbing real money at scale, which tends to translate into tighter fills on mainstream markets. ProphetX, live nationwide since June 18, is the smaller book by nearly twelve to one on the latest week's tape, but it is aimed squarely at the same liquid, sports-first markets, and the Monday night pair above shows the two posting prices six cents apart on the favorite and three on the dog. The practical read: on a headline game, both exchanges price near fair, but the October 25 pull above showed Novig resting 1,382 and 7,480 behind its two Cowboys-Eagles prices against ProphetX's 280 and 2,410, the narrowest gap this page has recorded and still three to five times one way, so one of them remains the place to fill size. On anything thin, check the actual order book before you commit, because a great price you can't get matched at is just a screenshot. When peer liquidity is short on both, that is the exact moment a traditional book's always-available menu earns its keep, and it is the reason plenty of sharp bettors keep a book app alongside an exchange.
Liquidity is the real tiebreaker.Two exchanges that both strip the vig are only as good as the money waiting on the other side of your order. On headline games, either one prices near fair, but check the depth column before you assume either can fill you: on Monday night's board Novig had 1,382 and 7,480 resting, ProphetX 280 and 2,410. On a thin market, post your order at the de-vigged fair price, give it a set window, and take the book's number if nobody fills you rather than paying up into a bad fill. On the latest week's tape, that waiting money sits on Novig by nearly twelve to one (closer to eleven to one across October 12 to 24), and on Monday night's moneyline the resting depth behind the price ran three to five times Novig's way.
Fees, States, And The Fine Print
Two exchanges pricing the same outcome can still hand you different net returns, and the difference hides in the fine print: how each one takes its cut, and where each one lets you play.
Fees. Neither platform bakes a vig into the line, but they earn their keep in different ways, and this is the sharpest structural difference between them. ProphetX charges a 2% trading fee on your net gains in each market on straight trades, the schedule it filed with the CFTC (2% of net proceeds per market on single-event contracts, in force since June 29); on $100 of net gains in a market that is $2, and it applies only when you come out ahead, never on a loss. Parlays are the one line its reprints no longer agree on: Legal Sports Report, BettingUSA and OddsAssist still say ProphetX charges nothing on combos, while DeFi Rate's October page describes a price-dependent taker fee on combo orders with a one-cent minimum and quotes ProphetX's own example of 98 cents on a 100-contract taker order at 65 cents, with resting combo makers paying nothing; the filed schedule covers single-event contracts only, so read the quote screen before you accept a combo. Novig's published schedule is built differently: no maker fee on anything, $0 on a pre-game straight trade for makers and takers alike, and a taker fee only while the game is live, set since October 15 at 0.06 times price times (1 minus price) per contract in every sport, so taking 100 contracts at 50 cents in-game costs $1.50 (it was $0.75 at the old 0.03 rate, which NCAAF, MLB and NHL markets had already left on October 8). Two exceptions to the live-only rule: season-long futures carry a 0.06 taker coefficient pre-game (golf and tennis futures are exempt per Novig's fee page, and its Maker Credit terms also put UFC, F1 and NASCAR futures outside the fee except for series-winner markets; the two pages disagree, so check the quote screen), and parlays carry a 0.10 taker coefficient that Novig folds into the quoted price, pre-game or in-game, the one place on either exchange where the cost sits inside the number rather than beside it. Novig's Maker Credit Program, restated on October 22, hands resting live straight-trade orders back 25% of the taker fee collected when they fill (50% before that date) and fee-carrying futures orders 50% (70% before, and only on NFL and college football futures), plus a Performance credit of another 50% on live fills for market makers that enroll and meet Novig's order standards across a league, a tier for which Novig recommends an account balance of at least $250,000. On the ProphetX side, the thing to know beyond the 2% is finality: since October 23 a fill inside 40% of fair market value is presumed good, up from 15%, though the exchange keeps its discretion to act on any trade to protect market integrity. When peer liquidity is thin, Novig's own market-making liquidity can also quote the price you see, and that is the trade: Novig's own quotes are why a thin market still has a price you can hit, and why that price is coming from a participant with a position rather than another bettor. Our full Novig breakdown tracks its current terms, and you should verify them on Novig before you trade. The point that survives either model: a cost you pay only on winners, or a fee you can compute before you take a live price (and see folded into a parlay quote), is structurally cheaper than a vig you pay on every ticket whether you win or lose. Subtract that cost from the exchange payout before you compare it to the book's fair number, and you are comparing apples to apples.
States and age. As covered above, both platforms answer to a federal regulator, but neither is simply available everywhere — where you can actually trade is decided state by state, and the map moves. State legislatures and regulators are still contesting where sports prediction markets can operate, and availability in this category has already shifted state by state, so any fixed list of covered states goes stale in motion. ProphetX lists 49 states and DC, everywhere but Nevada, a list it has not revised since agreeing on October 10 to leave Connecticut; Novig's help center says it is available nationwide except Nevada, Arizona and Michigan, for users 21 and up, judged by where you are standing when you trade. Connecticut's Department of Consumer Protection ordered both of them, and seven other platforms, to stop offering sports event contracts to its residents on September 10, 2026, and said on October 10 that ProphetX agreed to leave the state; Ohio's Casino Control Commission sent both exchanges notices dated October 2 with an October 16 deadline, which passed with most platforms still live, neither exchange saying publicly what it did, and the governor promising lawsuits, and Novig sued Missouri on October 16 over that state's own orders. Both apps verify your location and eligibility before you fund anything, and the rules are still settling, so see our explainer on whether prediction markets are legal, check your own state and age rule rather than assume, and read the full disclaimer under the offer below. None of this is legal advice.
The callback to liquidity is the practical lesson here: the "best" exchange on paper is worthless if it is not live in your state or deep in your market. Availability and depth decide more real bets than a fraction of a percentage point in commission does.
The Welcome Offers Compared
You will only claim one of these to start, so weigh them honestly. ProphetX runs a clean new-user offer: Trade $50, Get $75 in incentive funds, paid in three $25 installments on Day 1, Day 7 and Day 14 after $50 in qualifying trades, subject to terms, and it has a date on it: ProphetX's October 15 CFTC filing cuts the offer to Trade $40, Get $40 (paid $10, $10 and $20 on Days 1, 8 and 15, no price cap on qualifying trades) for anyone whose qualifying trades complete on or after October 29, 2026, so the $75 belongs to anyone who finishes the $50 before then. Novig's standard new-user offer is $50 in Trade Credits on a $10 deposit, paid as five $10 credits (Novig's own terms) that each expire 30 days after issue and work on contracts priced 60 cents or less, raised from $25 on October 1, 2026, and the current terms live on our Novig promo-code page, because a welcome offer is only as good as its live terms and those get updated.
Two honest notes on the ProphetX deal, since it is the one with a code attached here. The $75 is incentive funds to trade with on the exchange, not withdrawable cash dropped in at sign-up, and it arrives in three $25 installments on Day 1, Day 7 and Day 14, each expiring 45 calendar days after it lands, subject to terms; you have to use each installment in full on opening positions before the next one is paid. And it unlocks on $50 of qualifying opening trades, priced at 80 cents or lower and matched and executed within 30 days of approval, the same "it only counts once someone takes the other side" rule that governs every trade on an order book. Treat that first $50 as bets you actually wanted, then use the installments to feel out how the liquidity and pricing behave before you scale up. From October 29 the filed terms make those numbers $40, $40 and no price cap, and the same advice holds. Full mechanics, step by step, live on our ProphetX sign-up bonus explainer.
Ready to try the exchange side?Sign up for ProphetX with code ODDS2: trade $50 and get $75 in incentive funds, paid in three $25 installments over 14 days (subject to terms; these terms run through October 28).
Eligibility and location requirements apply. Coverage and eligibility rules can change, so confirm it operates where you live and that you meet the age and eligibility requirements before you fund an account. None of this is legal or financial advice, and the prices either exchange shows are the market's estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Trading on a prediction-market exchange involves risk, including the possible loss of the funds you put up. The $75 is incentive funds that require $50 in qualifying trades, arrive in three $25 installments that each expire 45 days after they are credited, carry their own terms, and are not a promised return. ProphetX has filed to change the offer to Trade $40, Get $40 for anyone qualifying on or after October 29, 2026. Confirm the current offer and full terms on ProphetX before you sign up. If gambling stops being fun, step away, and call 1-800-GAMBLER if you need help.
Novig's side of that table is unpacked in full in our Novig sign-up bonus review.
Which Exchange Should You Use?
The bettors who get the most out of this stop asking "ProphetX or Novig" as if it were a jersey and start routing each bet to the surface that prices and fills it best. The workflow is short, and it uses the same fair number from the no-vig math as its referee:
- Find the fair number. Pull the market up on the free odds screen and de-vig the book line to its true price. Now you know what the outcome is actually worth: the number both exchanges are really competing against.
- Check each exchange against fair, after cost. For ProphetX, take 2% off the net win; for Novig, nothing comes off a pre-game straight trade on a game market, but subtract the live taker fee once the game has started and the futures fee on a season-long market. Then see which exchange shows a price better than fair on a market with enough money to fill your order. Say ProphetX is posting +102 pre-game but its 2% cut of the win drags the net to about +99.96, just below Novig's fee-free +100: Novig is the better route. Flip it in-game, where Novig's taker fee applies and ProphetX's cut is unchanged, or whenever ProphetX has peer depth at your number and Novig's book is thin. Whichever clears fair by more after cost, with real liquidity behind it, wins that bet.
- Let availability break ties. If only one of them is live in your state today (Connecticut, where ProphetX has agreed to leave, is the live example of one door closing; Ohio's October 16 deadline passed with neither exchange saying what it did and the state promising to sue), that is your answer for now, and it is why the state-by-state picture above matters more than a rounding error in cost.
- Convert your book bonuses like an asset. The one thing neither exchange can hand you is a sportsbook bonus, so if you keep a book app for its deep prop menus and promos, then when it hands you a bonus bet, run it through the free bet converter to turn it into its highest cash value instead of firing it on a longshot. Same instinct: extract the real number, not the marketing one.
So the "winner" of ProphetX vs Novig is not a platform. It is the better-priced, deeper, actually-available market for the bet in front of you, and now you have a repeatable way to find it every time, instead of a logo to be loyal to. On Monday night's Cowboys-Eagles line that was Novig on both sides, fair to within a few hundredths of a point on Dallas, four-tenths of a point over on Philadelphia, with the depth to match, and it will be something else on the next game. Start on whichever exchange your state and the calendar allow, claim the offer that is live, redo the fee math on the day you trade, and let fair be the referee.
More on this: Novig Odds Display · Novig Odds Format Change: Why Your Moneyline Is Now A Percentage · Kalshi Vs Novig: Two Exchanges, One Very Different Fee · ProphetX Review 2026: Is ProphetX Legit? States & Fees
