San Francisco is the favorite to be the NFC's No. 1 seed at 21 cents after outscoring two opponents 62-20, and Chicago, second on this board ten days ago, has fallen to 5 cents with nobody bidding. The eight-model panel that priced the conference blind on August 24 had San Francisco fifth. The panel is frozen. The board has been rebuilt around it.
Prices on Kalshi as of September 24, 2026, 8:45 a.m. CT, quoted as the price to buy Yes; the panel's numbers are its August 24 run and do not move. A Yes contract pays $1 if the team is the NFC's No. 1 seed when the regular season ends, so the price in cents reads as the chance.
Stay ahead of the markets.
Daily insights and expert picks on Kalshi, Polymarket, and what's moving markets.
Free forever. Unsubscribe anytime.
New to Kalshi event contracts? Start with our plain-English walkthrough of how to bet the NFL on Kalshi.
The Board
Sorted by the ask, which is what you would pay to own a contract. The third column is the same board at 7:30 a.m. ET on Monday, September 14, the read that found the 49ers' bid gone.
| Team | Record, point differential | Sept. 24 bid / ask | Sept. 14 bid / ask | Panel (Aug. 24) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 2-0, +42 | 20 / 21 | 22 / 27 | 8.5% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 1-1, +2 | 13 / 16 | 11 / 14 | 14.8% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2-0, +6 | 15 / 16 | 8 / 9 | 18.8% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 2-0, +27 | 13 / 15 | 7 / 9 | 15.8% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2-0, +23 | 11 / 12 | 4 / 5 | 4.0% |
| Detroit Lions | 1-1, -9 | 6 / 7 | 9 / 10 | 12.5% |
| Chicago Bears | 1-1, +16 | 0 / 5 | 15 / 21 | 5.8% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1-1, +9 | 4 / 5 | 1 / 2 | 2.8% |
| Green Bay Packers | 1-1, -14 | 3 / 4 | 0 / 5 | 5.9% |
| New Orleans Saints | 1-1, +6 | 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 | 0.8% |
| Carolina Panthers | 1-1, +9 | 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 | 1.5% |
| New York Giants | 1-1, -14 | 0 / 2 | 0 / 4 | 0.8% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 1-1, -12 | 0 / 1 | 0 / 1 | 0.4% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0-2, -38 | 0 / 1 | 0 / 1 | 3.2% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0-2, -10 | 0 / 1 | 2 / 3 | 3.1% |
| Washington Commanders | 0-2, -19 | 0 / 1 | 0 / 2 | 1.1% |
Ten days ago the 16 midpoints on this board added to 97.5 and the top two books were hollow: a one-contract bid under the 49ers, a 15-to-21 spread under the Bears. This morning the 16 midpoints add to 100.5, the favorite is 20 bid and 21 ask, and the three teams behind it are inside a cent of each other at 15 and 16. That is what a board looks like when the market has stopped guessing and started pricing. The panel's top three, Philadelphia, Seattle and the Rams, are now the market's second, third and fourth, every one of them at 15 or 16; the one team the panel never saw coming is the one at the top.
San Francisco: The Bid Came Back And Brought A Second Win
The 49ers own the best point differential in the NFL, and Sunday's half of it was the cleanest game any NFC team has played. Purdy missed two passes all afternoon in a 35-13 win over Miami, ran for a touchdown and was never sacked. The other half was the win over the Rams in Melbourne, so San Francisco has already beaten one of the two teams standing between it and the West. The other, Seattle, comes to town on October 11.
The price is lower than the 27-cent ask that stood ten days ago, and that is the point rather than a problem. Nobody was paying that ask. This morning the contract trades at 21¢ (+376) with a bid a penny under it, and Arizona comes to town on Sunday as a heavy underdog.
The panel had San Francisco at 8.5 with every seat between 7.0 and 9.5. The highest seat is still 11.5 cents short of the ask, and the gap has stopped growing only because the price has settled.
Chicago And Minnesota: The North Swapped Its Contender In One Afternoon
The Bears' contract was the second-most expensive thing on this board ten days ago, 15 bid and 21 ask, on the strength of 59 points at Carolina. On Sunday Chicago hosted Minnesota and scored three. Caleb Williams went 15 of 26 for 138 yards with an interception before leaving for Tyson Bagent, the offense turned it over twice, and the Vikings won 9-3. Chicago's contract now has no bid and a 5-cent ask, which is a listing rather than a price, and Williams is listed doubtful on ESPN's injury page for Monday night against Philadelphia.
Minnesota took the cents Chicago gave up and then some, from a 4-to-5 book to 11 bid and 12 ask. The Vikings are 2-0 at plus 23 with 25 points allowed, and both wins came inside the division, 39-22 over Green Bay and Sunday's 9-3 in Chicago, which means they already hold the head-to-head over two of their three North rivals. Carson Wentz threw for 143 yards on Sunday and Aaron Jones ran 23 times for 105. It was not pretty, and the seed board does not score for pretty. Detroit, the panel's fourth choice, lost 41-31 in Buffalo and is 1-1 at minus 9, priced 6 to 7.
The panel had Minnesota at 4.0 and Chicago at 5.8, one and a half points apart. The market now has them seven cents apart on the ask, in Minnesota's favor, and the Vikings play at Tampa Bay on Sunday as a one-and-a-half-point favorite.
Seattle, Philadelphia And The Rams: The Panel's Top Three, Now A Three-Way Tie
This is the row that vindicates the exercise even while the top row embarrasses it. The panel's August 24 order was Philadelphia, Seattle, the Rams. Ten days ago the market had all three behind Chicago; this morning they sit within a cent of each other at 15 and 16.
Seattle earned it on the field. Drew Lock, starting for Sam Darnold, threw three touchdowns in a 31-7 win at Arizona, and Arizona never had the ball. Seattle has allowed 17 points all season, the fewest in the NFC.
Darnold is listed questionable this week, and the contract has gone from a 9-cent ask to 15 anyway. Seattle goes to Washington on Sunday as a seven-point favorite.
Philadelphia has won twice by a combined six points, over Washington and at Tennessee, and its contract nearly doubled to 16 anyway. The structural argument the panel built, that the NFC East is the cleanest path to a division title on the board, has not been tested; the rest of the division is a combined 2-4.
The Eagles' test is Monday night in Chicago, favored by four and a half, against a Bears team that may be without its quarterback.
The Rams beat the Giants 28-6 on Monday night and their contract trades at 13 bid, 16 ask. The panel's August number now sits inside that spread, which is as close to right as a frozen number gets.
Myles Garrett is on injured reserve, placed there September 17 per ESPN, and Puka Nacua is questionable. Los Angeles goes to Denver on Sunday night as a two-and-a-half-point favorite anyway.
What The No. 1 Seed Actually Buys
Each of the 16 markets settles on the same sentence with the team name swapped: if the team is the No. 1 seed in the NFC at the conclusion of the 2026-27 regular season, the market resolves to Yes. That makes every price on this board two questions multiplied together. Will the team win its division, and if it does, will it have the best record among the four teams that won theirs. The Rams went 12-5 at plus 172 last season and were the fifth seed, because Seattle went 14-3 in the same division. Across the last 12 seasons the NFC's top seed averaged 13.3 wins and repeated in back-to-back years once in 11 chances.
That arithmetic is why the West is the whole page. San Francisco, Seattle and the Rams have to play each other six times, and only one of them can win the division. One of the six is done: the 49ers beat the Rams in Melbourne. The next is San Francisco at Seattle on October 11. Whoever comes out of that division likely comes out with two 12-win teams already beaten, which is why the market pays 21 for the 49ers and 15 for the Seahawks to own the conference, and 16 for Philadelphia, whose path runs through a division that is a combined 2-4 without them.
More live boards from the same panel: the NFC East board where Philadelphia's division price comes from · the NFC West board where the three-team race is priced · Seattle's own playoff-qualifier contract · the NFC Championship board.
Every Seat's Number
These are the second-round numbers, seat by seat, from the August 24 run. They have not been re-scored and are shown as the dated record they are.
| Team | Fable | Opus | Sonnet | ChatGPT | Gemini | GLM | Kimi | DeepSeek | Panel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 19.5 | 14.3 | 19.5 | 17.5 | 17.2 | 18.5 | 19.0 | 20.0 | 18.8 |
| Seattle | 18.5 | 19.5 | 18.5 | 15.0 | 14.8 | 16.5 | 14.5 | 14.0 | 15.8 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 13.5 | 13.8 | 15.5 | 13.5 | 14.0 | 14.8 |
| Detroit | 9.5 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 16.0 | 12.5 |
| San Francisco | 7.0 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 8.5 |
| Green Bay | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 5.9 |
| Chicago | 5.5 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 5.8 |
| Dallas | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 2.8 |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements. Records as of the August 24 run for the seven seats with public ledgers: Claude Fable 84% on 709 graded calls · Claude Opus 84% on 779 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 82% on 757 graded calls · Gemini 86% on 4,760 graded calls · GLM 81% on 2,504 graded calls · Kimi 83% on 2,494 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 2,542 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full graded scoreboard is public.
Read the San Francisco row and the Chicago row together and you get both halves of what a frozen record is for. Not one of the 16 numbers in those rows is above 9.5. Ten days ago both contracts cost more than double the highest seat. This morning one of them still does, and the other is back inside the panel's range at 5 cents with no bid, inside the range every seat gave it. The panel was slow on the 49ers. On the Bears it was right, and it took one Sunday for the market to agree.
Hottest Prediction Markets Right Now
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · $193M traded
- 2027 Pro Football Champion · $71M traded
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? · $62M traded
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee · $60M traded
- Pro Baseball Champion · $60M traded
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 · $33M traded
Every market above links to our full AI model verdict; browse them all on the OddsShopper prediction markets hub, and see how every settled call actually scored on the full graded scoreboard.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
Claude Sonnet opened with Seattle at 34 percent, the most confident single call anyone made, and after reading the other seven cut it to 18.5 and rewrote its case around Philadelphia's division: "Dallas/Giants/Washington going a combined 16-34-2 last year plus the conference's third-easiest schedule (.481) makes their division-title floor the highest on the board." [Editor's note: the three rivals went a combined 16-34-1, and the .481 schedule ranks fourth-easiest in the conference rather than third.] Sonnet also moved San Francisco from 2.5 to 9.1, the furthest any seat moved on the 49ers, and finished 12 cents short of this morning's ask.
Claude Opus was the seat that did not move toward the group, and its Philadelphia dissent is the sentence that has aged best: "PHI probably wins the East and is probably the 3-seed. High P(division), low P(best record | division): 14.3, not 20+." Two one-score wins later, the market has the Eagles at 16, closer to Opus than to the seven seats above it.
What Would Change It From Here
The NFC West head-to-heads. One down, five to go. San Francisco at Seattle on October 11 is next, and it is now a game between the two best point differentials in the conference.
Garrett and Nacua. Garrett is on injured reserve. Nacua is questionable for Denver. The trigger every seat named as the thing that lifts the Rams is still running against them, and the contract is at 16 anyway on the strength of a 28-6 win.
Chicago's quarterback. Williams doubtful for Monday night is the newest input on the board, and it lands on the game that was already the Eagles' first real test. A Philadelphia win in Chicago without Williams tells you less about Philadelphia than the price will pretend.
Darnold. Questionable this week after Lock's three-touchdown afternoon. The frozen panel never had a Seattle quarterback question in it, and the market has priced two Lock starts as no discount at all.
Settlement. The expected settlement date is January 11, 2027, with an early close once a top seed is decided. The next NFC game is tonight, Atlanta at Green Bay, with the Packers favored by four and a half; neither contract has a live bid above three cents. This page is updated when the story moves.
Projections and hit rates on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
More on this: NFL 2026 on Kalshi: 49 Live Boards, 10 Days To Kickoff · NBA East 1 Seed Odds: Kalshi Doubts The 60-Win Pistons · NFC South Odds 2026: The 6-11 Team Is Priced Second · NFC North Odds On Kalshi: The Champ Drew The NFL's Hardest Slate · NFC East Odds 2026: The Giants Passed Dallas In One Night
