The Quick Answer
Two Underdog NFL picks for Sunday Night Football, October 25, Chiefs at Seahawks (8:20 p.m. ET at Lumen Field): Xavier Worthy (KC) Higher 8.65 fantasy points and George Holani (SEA) Higher 9.5 rushing yards. Eric skipped the main slate to zero in on this one, with Kenneth Walker III (KC) returning to Seattle, Rashee Rice (KC) out and Seattle's backfield down two runners.
The Picks: Sunday Night Football, October 25
| Player | Stat | Line | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | Fantasy points | 8.65 | Higher |
| George Holani (SEA) | Rushing yards | 9.5 | Higher |
Xavier Worthy Higher 8.65 Fantasy Points
The night is about Walker's return, but Eric's play is the passing game that comes with it. With Rashee Rice out, Worthy is the de facto number one receiver for Kansas City, and Eric's bet is that Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes scheme him open off play action, something the offense had been missing with the running back rooms before Walker arrived. Seattle has been elite at taking opposing passing games away this season, first or second in every major category by Eric's count, and Worthy's season has been inefficient, around nine fantasy points a game. The case is the spot: for the first time in a while, Kansas City may be pushed to throw.
The game log, per ESPN: 3 catches for 18 yards against Denver, 5 for 25 and a touchdown against Indianapolis, 2 for 20 against Miami, 4 for 70 against Las Vegas, and 7 for 73 on seven targets last week against the Chargers, his busiest night of the year. Rice is out with a hamstring, per Friday's report. Kansas City is 5-0 and a 3-point road underdog on ESPN's line, with the total at 42.5.
George Holani Higher 9.5 Rushing Yards
Off the board, by Eric's own admission, but the Seattle backfield is the reason. Jadarian Price (SEA) is on injured reserve and Zach Charbonnet (SEA) is out again, per ESPN, so Emanuel Wilson (SEA) gets the early work and the positive-script carries. Holani is the play because he out-snapped Wilson by a considerable margin last week, and his passing-game role plus his ball security give him a path to the field even if the Seahawks play from ahead. Ten rushing yards is the whole ask.
The game log, per ESPN: 29 yards on 8 carries against New England, 13 against Arizona, 10 against Washington, 18 against the Chargers, 7 against San Francisco, and 20 on 5 carries with a touchdown against Denver last week. That is five of six games over 9.5. Wilson carried 14 times for 52 yards in that game, after 20 and 21 the two weeks before, so he remains the lead; Holani needs his usual handful of carries, not a changed role.
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