The Quick Answer: Two Underdog NFL picks today for Week 1 Sunday: Bijan Robinson (ATL) Higher 117.5 rushing plus receiving yards at the Pittsburgh Steelers and Jordan Mason (MIN) Higher 43.5 rushing yards against the Green Bay Packers. Both are volume calls: Robinson against a run defense that struggled in 2025, Mason as the younger, fresher half of the Vikings backfield. The reasoning for each, the video, and the current Underdog offer with code OS1 are below.
Week 1 Sunday of the 2026 NFL season is here, and Eric Lindquist's top two Underdog Fantasy plays are both running backs, both on the Higher. In Atlanta the volume is there because a rotation partner left town; in Minnesota it is there so the veteran Jones carries less of the load. Both picks are below as called in the video, followed by the current Underdog offer for new users, and the Mason line is the one Eric says sits too far from his median outcome.
The Picks: Week 1 Sunday, September 13
| Player | Game | Stat | Line | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | Falcons at Steelers, 1:00 p.m. ET | Rushing + receiving yards | 117.5 | Higher |
| Jordan Mason (MIN) | Packers at Vikings, 4:25 p.m. ET | Rushing yards | 43.5 | Higher |
Bijan Robinson Higher 117.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
You have probably heard it by now: Tua Tagovailoa (ATL) is out for Week 1, which thrusts lifelong backup Cooper Rush (ATL) into the start at Pittsburgh. A stone-cold disaster for the Falcons offense, right? Not necessarily. Based on how Tua has played in recent years, this is not the drop-off it looks like from the names alone.
The bigger piece is the defense across the line. Pittsburgh really struggled to stop the run in 2025, allowing 4.3 yards per carry, with the advanced metrics even poorer than that number, and the Steelers now bring in offensive-minded head coach Mike McCarthy to replace Mike Tomlin. Then the volume: with Tyler Allgeier gone from Atlanta, the workload is Robinson's. Everything is lining up for him in this spot, and 117.5 combined yards is the number to clear. The Underdog line counts rushing and receiving together, so a sportsbook comparison only covers part of it, but the rushing half is worth checking on the live NFL rushing yards prop odds page, the same odds comparison the NFL Underdog picks strategy guide walks through.
Jordan Mason Higher 43.5 Rushing Yards
The Vikings also changed quarterbacks, from J.J. McCarthy (MIN) to Kyler Murray (MIN), and based on last year that can only be a positive for this offense. The positive for Mason himself is age: he is 27, teammate Aaron Jones (MIN) is 31, and Mason has way, way less mileage on the tires. Expect a lot of first- and second-down work for Mason early in the season, easing the burden on the veteran Jones.
Green Bay is a tough matchup, and the pick does not pretend otherwise. This is about volume and a number that sits too far below where Eric has Mason's median outcome for Sunday. The volume half is easy to check: the books post a carries market too, so the live NFL rushing attempts prop odds page shows how many carries the market expects him to get. If the Higher/Lower format is new to you, player props betting explained covers how a line like 43.5 gets set and settled.
Watch the full breakdown of both plays:
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More on this: MLB Hit Props Today · MLB Strikeout Props Today · MLB Total Bases Props Today · Angels vs Nationals Odds: Best Prices and +EV Edges · Dodgers vs Marlins Odds: Best Prices and +EV Edges
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