The Quick Answer
Two Underdog Fantasy plays for Falcons vs. Packers on Thursday Night Football, September 24. My Monday night card cashed, making it three of the last four cards on a still young season, and this game rewards buying the two pass catchers the market has priced down: an Atlanta tight end who needs a pulse and a Packers wideout whose line sits well under his teammate's. The case for each, the video and the current Underdog offer with code OS1 are below.
The first play is a read on a quarterback change. The second is where the discount shows up in the usage numbers.
The Picks: Thursday Night Football, September 24
| Player | Stat | Line | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts (ATL) | Receptions | 3.5 | Higher |
| Matthew Golden (GB) | Receiving yards | 54.5 | Higher |
The top row is a tight end with one catch on four targets through two weeks: that is exactly why the line sits at 3.5.
Kyle Pitts Higher 3.5 Receptions
Everything in this game runs through the Atlanta side, where Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) takes over the quarterback reins from Cooper Rush (ATL). Rush started the first two games, and the box scores on ESPN explain the change: 12-of-22 for 143 yards in Pittsburgh, then 10-of-17 for 86 against Carolina, with four interceptions across the two. Pitts drew one target in Week 1 and caught none, then caught one of three targets for 15 yards in Week 2. One catch on four targets is the whole reason a starting tight end's line sits at 3.5.
Drake London (ATL) and Pitts should be in much better hands with the lefty spinner, who should open up the downfield throws that were close to nonexistent through two weeks. London's price already carries the rapport he and Penix showed early last season, so the market has paid up for him. Pitts is the undervalued side of that pairing, and I like him to regain a pulse Thursday night with a quarterback who should look his way.
The Green Bay side is the harder read. MarShawn Lloyd (GB) put the ball on the ground last week, which opens up major question marks about how the Packers hand out their running game, and Tucker Kraft (GB) played an insanely high snap count in that game while drawing a low target share for it. Neither one tells you much about Thursday night, and all of it pales next to a quarterback change.
For how the sportsbooks price the same catch count, OddsShopper's live odds screen lines up the books on his number on the live NFL receptions odds board. The NFL Underdog picks strategy guide covers how to weigh a low-volume line like this before you enter a card.
Matthew Golden Higher 54.5 Receiving Yards
The discount on Pitts is a read on a new quarterback. The discount on Golden is right there in the usage, and it's the more fascinating of the two. Through two weeks Golden has played 84% of the Packers' snaps and Christian Watson (GB) 83%. Golden has 217 air yards, Watson 213. Both sit around a 27% target share, both have been targeted around 20 times, and Golden even has the deeper average depth of target, 12.1 to Watson's 11.2.
Yet Watson's receiving yards line sat north of 70 when the card went out, and Golden's sits under 55. Watson has been efficient with it, credit where it's due, but a 15-plus-yard gap on matching snaps, air yards and targets is a massive discount, and it comes with less attention headed Golden's way. Same idea as the first play: the market paid up for the name it trusts, and the teammate on identical usage is the value.
If the grading is new to you, player props betting explained covers how a line like this gets built and settled, and the live NFL receiving yards odds board shows what the sportsbooks hang on both Packers receivers.
Watch the full breakdown of both plays on the OddsShopper channel:
How Keep Your Million Works
Keep Your Million is Underdog's free-to-play survival game. Every eligible customer, all new users and most existing users, receives a virtual $1,000,000 pot in bonus funds, and the job is to protect it across up to 20 questions.
- Pick a question. Example: will Patrick Mahomes throw for Higher or Lower than 275 passing yards?
- Split your million. Drag a slider to divide the pot between Higher and Lower: 100% on one side, 50/50, or anything in between. All the money has to go somewhere.
- Lock it in. Once you submit before the game starts, it is locked and cannot be changed.
- Keep your winnings. When the game settles, keep whatever you put on the winning side. That amount becomes your pot for the next question.
- Run it back. Make a pick for up to 20 questions. Survive all 20 and cash out whatever is left in Underdog bonus funds. Hit zero and you are out.
The Deposit Match
Underdog Fantasy is also running a first-deposit match. The two state groups here are the match tiers, not the map of where Underdog is available, and the size of the match depends on which tier your state sits in. In the full-product tier (AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, DE, DC, FL, GA, IL, IN, KS, KY, MA, MD, MI, MN, MS, MO, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WV, WI, WY) the match is 50% of your first deposit up to $1,000 in bonus funds. In the predictions-only tier (CT, HI, ID, IA, LA, ME, MT, WA) the match is 25% of your first deposit up to $250 in bonus funds, and Underdog has said that percentage and launch may still change.
New users can sign up with code OS1 and get a 50% first-deposit match up to $1,000 in bonus funds (25% up to $250 in CT, HI, ID, IA, LA, ME, MT and WA).
Use code OS1 and get up to $1,000 in bonus cash
Trading involves risk, including total loss on positions. Content is promotional and not a recommendation to trade. Promotion issued by affiliate. Terms apply. Underdog is available in 49 of 50 U.S. states. Concerned with your play? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
