Wednesday's 15-game MLB card is a price-and-probability day, and it produced a card the home run guy almost never builds: three moneylines and two totals, with not one official home run play among them. Lindy came into the show off a 3-2 Tuesday, with his free Lindy's Long Balls column up more than 10 units by his own tracking over the last few weeks, after Jordan Walker (STL) bailed out a day when William Contreras (MIL) hit two balls at Wrigley that stayed in the yard with the wind blowing out. The Wednesday board rewards something different. He requires north of a three-point edge before betting anything, and the Padres, Twins, and Astros all cleared it, the Twins by his own math at 55 to 56% against a number that implies 52.4%. Two overs he is running back from Tuesday in the exact same parks round out the card, and the OddsShopper +EV screen already agrees with his read on the Blue Jays.
Jordan Walker (STL), whose Tuesday home run salvaged the card heading into Wednesday.
The Quick Answer
The Wednesday, September 2 card comes down to five official plays: the San Diego Padres (SD) moneyline behind Casey Mize (SD) in Cincinnati, Braves-Nationals over 9 runs, Athletics-Rangers over 7.5 runs, the Minnesota Twins (MIN) moneyline behind Dean Kremer (MIN) against Detroit, and the Houston Astros (HOU) moneyline behind Hayden Wesneski (HOU) against the White Sox. The show also worked through a long page of leans that never became clicks, including a Colton Cowser (BAL) home run angle at Coors Field, a Dylan Cease (TOR) outs-under the show makes a 43 to 44% shot against a number that needs only 40%, and a Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) under the host admits he was "a coward" for not firing. The full breakdown of every play, the leans still on the table, and the three board prices captured the morning of the show, is below.
Watch: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks
The card was built live on the OddsShopper channel, working from the Padres-Reds opener through the late Cardinals-Dodgers window.
The Card At A Glance
| The Play | The market | The read |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres (SD) | Moneyline vs. Cincinnati Reds | Mize is much better than his Padres results, with an elite bullpen behind him |
| Braves-Nationals | Over 9 runs | Nationals Park keeps getting undervalued and neither bullpen helps the under |
| Athletics-Rangers | Over 7.5 runs | Run back from Tuesday; the 7.5 sits just outside standard pricing and reads wrong |
| Minnesota Twins (MIN) | Moneyline vs. Detroit Tigers | Priced at a number implying 52.4%; the host makes it 55 to 56% |
| Houston Astros (HOU) | Moneyline vs. Chicago White Sox | Davis Martin is due for negative regression; Wesneski keeps surprising |
The row worth staring at is Minnesota. A self-described Twins hater who generally bets against the team got handed a number he makes closer to 55 or 56% priced at an implied 52.4%, and that gap clears his three-point bar with room to spare.
Casey Mize's Padres Lead A Three-Moneyline Card
The first official play of the day opens the schedule. Casey Mize (SD) draws Brandon Williamson (CIN) and the Reds in Cincinnati, and Mize has not enjoyed his early tenure as a Padre after pretty good results in Detroit. The explanation on the show was partly environmental: Comerica Park played up for right-handed power this season but not left-handed power, and Mize's rough stretch lines up with the last month of hot weather in Southern California. Cincinnati is hot again on Wednesday, and Great American Ball Park is a home run park, so Mize is being backed as a much better pitcher than his San Diego results show, whatever the weather does, with one of the best bullpens in baseball behind him.
Tuesday's finale cut against that bullpen argument, and the show said so. San Diego got drilled in the eighth inning and lost 4-3, which was weird to watch and out of character for the group. It still reads as variance in a low-scoring game decided by home run balls: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) homered twice on Tuesday and is back to being Fernando Tatis Jr., and Manny Machado (SD) has 22 home runs on the season. The market is charging a moderate favorite price for a team with the better starter, the better bullpen, and two of the best power bats in the lineup. San Diego Padres (SD) moneyline, a moderate favorite.
The line that keeps coming up on this program, said millions of times by the host's own count: "It's price and probability at the end of the day." Two more moneylines cleared that bar, but the two overs came first.
Two Overs, Run Back From Tuesday In The Same Parks
Viewers were told they could copy and paste a lot of Tuesday's analysis into Wednesday, and the Braves-Nationals total is the clearest example. Washington's over went "ballistically over" on Tuesday after CJ Abrams (WSH) returned to the top of the lineup, and the read carries straight into the finale. Atlanta's starter never came up on the show. The Washington side did: an opener is expected in Brad Lord (WSH) ahead of left-hander Jackson Kent (WSH), who should eat most of the innings. Kent is not a favorite of this show, and the left-handed matchup is a plus for Matt Olson (ATL) and Michael Harris II (ATL).
The bigger argument is the park. Nationals Park has been constantly undervalued this season, and this lineup keeps hitting: Daylen Lile (WSH) took an off day on Tuesday and it did not matter, Brady House (WSH) and Dylan Crews (WSH) can run into one at any time, and Yohandy Morales (WSH), who homered Tuesday, carries a 60-of-60 raw power grade on FanGraphs. The standard number is 9. Alternate 8.5s and 9.5s are available, and the host actually prefers the 9.5 side because it comes with plus money, even knowing it wins less often. The official play sits on the main number.
"Make sure you're shopping for your prices." Lindy, on why the 8.5 alt only works without heavy juice and the 9.5 alt only works with real plus money attached.
Neither bullpen helps the under. Runs are expected out of the Nationals pen, and the middle of Atlanta's is nothing to trust either. Braves-Nationals over 9 runs, slight minus juice.
The Athletics-Rangers total gets the same treatment for the same reason. Jacob Lopez (ATH) continues to give up power, and Cody Bradford (TEX) has been effective in ways that never show up in his win-loss record. The over was on Tuesday's card, and Wednesday's total sits at 7.5, just outside standard pricing and, in the host's words, "not correct" for this exact spot. "We're just going to play it again." Athletics-Rangers over 7.5 runs.
Minnesota And Houston Round Out The Moneylines
Drew Anderson (DET) faces Dean Kremer (MIN) in Minnesota, and the Twins were priced at a standard-juice number, the kind that implies a 52.4% break-even. The show's own number sits closer to 55 or 56%, and anything north of a three-point edge gets bet. The reasons stack up quickly. Kremer should limit left-handed power at Target Field. The Twins lineup is close to strikeout-immune, and it just got deeper with Walker Jenkins (MIN) called up and Kaelen Culpepper (MIN) providing speed, power, and real defense at shortstop. Detroit's middle relief is a group the host actively dislikes, and Tuesday's game was never in doubt, so neither team had to deploy its main bullpen arms. A tighter finale puts that Tigers middle group back on the field. Minnesota Twins (MIN) moneyline, a standard-juice number.
"Two money lines on the card. What a time to be alive, everyone." Lindy, on a card that had two moneylines before Houston made it three.
The third moneyline is Houston. Davis Martin (CWS) is a pitcher the show has expected negative regression from for a long time, because the White Sox lineup has been carrying the load and the underlying stuff never blew anyone away. Hayden Wesneski (HOU) was a frequent back with the Cubs and has been a pleasant surprise since, even as an arm that has been attacked unsuccessfully in DFS. The Astros were available at a short favorite price, and the reaction on the show was to ask why the book made it so cheap. Houston Astros (HOU) moneyline, a short favorite.
Three moneylines on the card is a talking point the host went out of his way to address, because his audience knows him for home runs. His answer: he is good at home runs, and he plays best available. Wednesday's best available was moneylines and totals.
What Lindy Is Watching, Not Yet Plays
A 15-game board leaves plenty on the page that never became a click. None of these count as official plays:
- Colton Cowser (BAL) Home Run at Coors Field against Tomoyuki Sugano (COL), the pitcher projected on the show to allow the most home runs on the entire slate, with the year-long projection systems agreeing. The twist is a lineup read: Luis Robert Jr. (BAL) should be in the lineup and brings right-handed power the Orioles outfield lacks, Cowser's center-field defense makes him the one outfielder who is not leaving the field, and corner outfielders Leody Taveras (BAL) and Dylan Beavers (BAL) are the weak gloves who could lose at-bats. Cowser could move up from the eighth and ninth spots he is used to, and betting him at open was called "a sneaky sneaky way to go about betting this one," with a possible second bet on a two-homer game if the number is long enough. The price had not been seen yet, so it stays a lean.
- Andrew Painter (PHI) Unders in Arizona. Painter's curveball and slider grade well on stuff-plus and run values, but the Diamondbacks do not strike out, from Corbin Carroll (AZ) to Gabriel Moreno (AZ) to right-handed bats like Tim Tawa (AZ), and Chase Field is spacious. Arizona is off Thursday, so its righty-heavy bullpen is fully available, which makes a few Phillies bats more interesting as a live angle. No lines were out at show time, and the plan is to "find a way" to short Painter once they post. Arizona had not advertised a starter anywhere at show time, with Jose Cabrera (AZ) the expected bulk-innings arm, so check the pitching news before doing anything with this game.
- New York Mets (NYM) Moneyline against Tampa Bay, but only at a longer price. Justin Hagenman (NYM) makes his season debut after showing a home run problem at Single-A, in two Triple-A appearances, and across just over nine innings of prior work at this level, and the Mets are off Thursday, so this turns into a bullpen day fast. There is too much respect for Shane McClanahan (TB) on this show to fire at the current number, and the plan is to wait for the price to drift out toward a 40% implied chance. Confirm Tampa Bay's starter before pricing this; the show priced it off McClanahan.
- Jared Jones (PIT) Strikeout Ladder against Landen Roupp (SF) and the Giants. The idea is a small ladder across the 4.5 and 5.5 numbers, with the higher rung only at plus money, but more books needed to post before it could be shopped. San Francisco's young hitters have contact built into their profiles, which is why this stayed a lean.
- Dylan Cease (TOR) Under 17.5 Outs in Cleveland. The show makes this a 43 to 44% shot against a plus-money number that needs about 40% to break even, a three-to-four-point edge by that math. It stayed a lean because the Blue Jays are pesky and Gavin Williams (CLE) had just struck out 13 of them on Tuesday. The other half of this matchup shows up in the board table below.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) Home Run against Noah Cameron (KC). Cameron throws his changeup more than a quarter of the time to right-handed hitters and only about 7% to lefties, because it does not work against them, and his expected isolated power allowed to left-handed bats sits around .300 with a heavy fly-ball profile at Kauffman Stadium in the middle of a heat wave. Stowers delivered a two-homer night against Painter back in June. The price was on screen and the stated intent was to attack it, but nothing had been fired at show time. Stolen bases against Eury Pérez (MIA) on the mound are less appealing with Joe Mack (MIA) behind the plate, one of the best in baseball at throwing out runners.
- Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) Under 17.5 Outs at Wrigley against David Peterson (CHC). Milwaukee has the best record in baseball and cannot contend in October without Misiorowski, so workload management is expected after a run of six-inning starts capped around 89 pitches. Add a road start, wind blowing out, 88 degrees, 60% humidity, and a total drifting from 8 toward 8.5, and this got as close to a click as a lean gets. The host's words: "I'm a coward the likes of which this world's never seen before."
- Cam Schlittler (NYY) Over 7.5 Strikeouts in Anaheim against Reid Detmers (LAA), the lean liked most on the page because every other number in the game looked efficient. The Angels' Wade Meckler (LAA), Jose Siri (LAA), and Josh Lowe (LAA) have stopped striking out for reasons nobody on the show could explain, but the math favors the over. It is only worth it at pick'em pricing on a props board at standard juice or better, and it was not played.
- Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) Team-Total Ladder against a Cardinals staff that starts Brycen Mautz (STL), who will not be long for the game, in front of a middle relief group described as "dog doodoo" and closer Riley O'Brien (STL), one of the weakest closers in baseball outside Colorado. Wind is out in Los Angeles again, and with Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) dealing, the Cardinals may play lesser bats late. The 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 rungs were laid out without confirmation that any of them were fired.
- Mariners-Red Sox Stays Off The Card Entirely. Patrick Sandoval (BOS) is a left-hander who lets Seattle's right-handed power play up, Bryce Miller (SEA) has been reeling since his hot start, and Mickey Gasper (BOS) homers every day. The whole game was called muddy and murky, the same read Tuesday's version got before it went one-sided.
What The Board Is Pricing Alongside The Cease Lean
The Cease lean comes with a read on the other side of that Cleveland matchup: the Blue Jays carry a 20.6% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, fifth-lowest in baseball, which the show flagged as a poor spot for Joey Cantillo (CLE) strikeouts. The OddsShopper +EV board had the same idea priced. Every number below was captured off the board on the morning of Wednesday, September 2, de-vigged to a fair probability, and the differences from the market are thin.
| Market | Best price | Fair chance |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillo (CLE): Under 4.5 Total Strikeouts | -102 (DraftKings) | 51.2% |
| Jake Bauers (MIL): Under 0.5 Total Hits | +160 (Fanatics) | 38.9% |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC): Under 0.5 Total Hits | +170 (Fanatics) | 37.2% |
The Cantillo row pairs directly with the Toronto contact note. A lineup that whiffs against southpaws less than almost anyone, facing a left-hander whose strikeout number sits at 4.5, is the kind of spot the screen finds without any transcript, and the board's fair chance of 51.2% at a near-even DraftKings price lines up with the read on the Blue Jays. The two hits props both live in the Brewers-Cubs game where the Misiorowski under nearly got fired, and both are plus-money unders on hitters the market may be giving too much credit for a knock in a wind-out park. Those are board finds rather than show plays, the margins are small, and the prices move fast, so treat them as a starting point for your own shopping.
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You can also shop the live board yourself at the OddsShopper MLB odds screen, follow exchange money with the Liquidity Tool, or use our free bet converter if a sportsbook credits you a bonus bet off any of Wednesday's action.
- MLB Picks Hub: Today's Live Boards and Series
- MLB Home Run Picks Today: The Full Board
- Lindy's Long Balls: The Wind Already Paid Once, Back
- Lindy's MLB Picks: Monday, August 31 Leans, Likes & Locks
- Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks (MLB): September 1, 2026 Slate
FAQ
Who Is Lindy And Where Can I Follow His MLB Picks?
Lindy is Eric Lindquist, who hosts "Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks" on the OddsShopper channel, writes the free daily Lindy's Long Balls home run column on OddsShopper, and posts his full card on Tails.
Why Did Lindy Play Three Moneylines Instead Of Home Runs On September 2?
He plays best available, and he requires an edge north of three points before betting anything. On Wednesday the Padres, Twins, and Astros all cleared that bar, the Twins by his own math at 55 to 56% against a number implying 52.4%.
Is The Dylan Cease Under An Official Play?
No. The under 17.5 outs was priced on the show as a 43 to 44% shot against a number that needs about 40%, but it was called a lean and never fired.
Does A Lean Count The Same As An Official Play?
No. Spots being watched but not bet, like Wednesday's Cowser home run and Misiorowski under, are kept separate from the plays actually fired. Only the five official plays count here.
This recap covers Eric Lindquist's official plays from the Wednesday, September 2 "Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks" show; follow his full card, including his daily home run column, on Tails. Bets are opinions, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly, 21+.
