Before the medicine, a public service announcement. Wednesday's best bomb never made this column — because it couldn't. I put Kyle Stowers +650 on the card during that day's episode of MLB Lindy's Leans, Likes, and Locks, and by the time this column would've gone to print, the number had been nuked into oblivion. Stowers then did what nuked numbers do: solo shot in the third off Noah Cameron in a 9-6 Marlins win. That's the tax of being early — and the lesson is free: the video is where the freshest numbers live, so if you're only reading me, you're getting the second serving. Watch the show, THEN read the column. Your bankroll will notice.
Now the medicine: the column card went 0-for-2. Abreu had himself a NIGHT — 3-for-4, two doubles — and doubles, tragically, do not pay this particular toll. Lindor went 1-for-6 in a game the Mets won 10-4 without his help. The tally takes its haircut and keeps its posture:
| Date | Play | Price | Effective | Result | Risked | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/17 | Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 16¢ | +490 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.23u |
| 8/17 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 21¢ | +351 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 8/17 | Mookie Betts (LAD) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Jackson Merrill (SD) | 13¢ | +625 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/18 | Mike Trout (LAA) | 19¢ | +398 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 14¢ | +573 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.43u |
| 8/18 | Corbin Carroll (AZ) | 9¢ | +944 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 14¢ | +573 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Bryce Harper (PHI) | 19¢ | +398 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/20 | Pete Alonso (BAL) | 21¢ | +351 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/20 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 17¢ | +456 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.14u |
| 8/21 | Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 16¢ | +490 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/21 | Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | 17¢ | +456 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/21 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 21¢ | +351 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 8/22 | Corbin Carroll (AZ) | 16¢ | +490 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/22 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 19¢ | +398 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.00u |
| 8/23 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 23¢ | +313 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/23 | Jackson Merrill (SD) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/23 | Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | 13¢ | +625 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/24 | Junior Caminero (TB) | 20¢ | +373 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/24 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 21¢ | +351 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/24 | Byron Buxton (MIN) | 28¢ | +257 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/25 | Bryce Harper (PHI) | 16¢ | +490 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/25 | Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/25 | Manny Machado (SD) | 13¢ | +625 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/26 | Matt Olson (ATL) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/26 | Pete Alonso (BAL) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/27 | Jac Caglianone (KC) | 19¢ | +398 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.00u |
| 8/27 | Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 17¢ | +456 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.14u |
| 8/28 | Matt Olson (ATL) | 26¢ | +266 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/28 | Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 14¢ | +574 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/28 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 17¢ | +456 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/29 | Alex Bregman (CHC) | 13¢ | +625 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.56u |
| 8/29 | Jackson Merrill (SD) | 12¢ | +685 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/30 | Sal Stewart (CIN) | 21¢ | +351 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 8/30 | Pete Alonso (BAL) | 27¢ | +252 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/31 | Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 19¢ | +398 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/31 | Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 20¢ | +373 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.93u |
| 9/1 | Manny Machado (SD) | 21¢ | +351 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 9/1 | Jordan Walker (STL) | — | +350 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 9/1 | Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 22¢ | +331 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 9/2 | Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 9/2 | Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| TOTAL | 16-for-45 | 11.25u | +9.94u (88% ROI) |
Sixteen for 45, still nearly 10 units clear on quarter-unit stakes, still every card posted before first pitch. Two swings tonight — the names are buried in the blurbs where they belong, the full card waits at the bottom, and one of tonight's picks is getting an immediate second date. Read on.
The Camden Sauna (And The Lines That Didn't Notice)
Baltimore tonight is a hitting laboratory: 87° at first pitch after a 93° day, a dewpoint sitting at a tropical 74°, air so thick you could spread it on toast — the exact conditions where fly balls pick up free frequent-flyer miles — in a building whose short-wall era rated a 121 homer factor, second-highest in baseball. And here's the part that has me leaning in: the prices in this game are acting like it's a crisp night in October. The lines haven't caught up to the weather. When the market naps, we pounce.
The arm we're attacking is Baltimore's Brandon Young, whose tidy 3.38 ERA is writing checks his own contact quality won't cash: the expected ERA reads 4.34 — nearly a full run of overdue bills — and it shows up pitch by pitch, where his two most-used offerings both carry expected slugs well above what's landed so far (the 40.7%-usage four-seam at .419 expected against, the splitter at .400) while the sinker's already being slugged .513. He's also served up 5 homers over his last three starts. The regression isn't coming; it's mid-flight.
Our collector — and yes, it's an immediate second date: Wilyer Abreu, who went 3-for-4 with two doubles against this ticket LAST NIGHT and now gets the ballpark and the weather upgrade. The profile is precisely our type: an 18.7° average launch angle parked in the seats band, a 12.4% barrel rate, 44% hard-hit, and 17 of his 23 homers against right-handed pitching. He's hitting .300 with a .914 OPS over his last 10 games; last night the warning track ate two of his best swings in Boston's marine air — tonight those same swings live in Baltimore soup. Full disclosure, both barrels: Young has actually held lefties to a .674 OPS this season (righties do the heavier damage), so this is a park-heat-and-contact play, not a split play — and the NWS has evening storm chances that Rotowire shrugs at, so give the radar one look before lock. I fired at +426 on DraftKings last night before the market woke up, and that's the number the tally tracks; Kalshi's live register sits at 20¢ (+373 effective) at writing. Shop both, take the best.
Lift-Off In The Nightcap
Out west, 9:40 ET — shelf life for the readers, dessert for the degenerates. The A's are starting Jack Perkins, proud owner of the loudest gopher rate on tonight's slate: 18 homers in 95.1 innings, 1.70 per nine, on an 8.8% barrel rate allowed — and the pitch-mix autopsy explains everything. His sweeper and changeup are legitimately nasty (37% and 43% whiffs). His problem is volume: the four-seamer he throws 37.4% of the time whiffs at a feeble 15.6% and gets slugged .406, the cutter's being slugged .722, and when he's tired of those, the sinker's been slugged 1.000. Lefty bats have collected 10 of his 18 homers at a .829 OPS in the split.
Which brings us to the most left-handed swing in the Pacific Northwest tonight: Cal Raleigh, switch-hitter, batting from his power side, currently operating at max altitude — a 25.2° average launch angle with 54.4% pull, the purest launch profile on our entire tally, a 14.6% barrel rate, and 6 homers in his last 8 games (dated Aug. 24 through Sept. 2, receipts available). The honesty, served cold: the roof will be closed and T-Mobile suppresses homers, Raleigh's hitting .183 against righties (he's a three-true-outcomes machine — we're buying exactly one of the outcomes), and Perkins's expected ERA is actually BETTER than his real one, so this is a gopher-rate bet, not a regression bet. The books' boards were unreadable at writing, so Kalshi's 21¢ (+351 effective) was the register I can quote — compare your book before firing.
The Card
You read the stories, here's the window slip. Kalshi's taker fee — roughly 7% × price × (1 − price), a penny-ish at these levels — is baked into every effective number:
- Wilyer Abreu → +426 at DraftKings (my entry, and what the tally tracks); Kalshi's live number at writing: 20¢ → +373 effective. Take whichever register is kinder when you shop.
- Cal Raleigh At 21¢ → +351 effective on Kalshi (book boards unreadable at writing — compare before you fire).
If both connect: +1.95 units on 0.50 risked, tally back to +11.89. If both miss, half a unit, and the show tapes again tomorrow.
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Thin Air On Repeat, A Flat Fastball Problem
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: A Two-Piece Thursday: Kalshi Odds
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: The Account Has Officially DOUBLED
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Free Bombs To Start The Week \u2014 Coors Does
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Four Straight And Feeling Dangerous \u2014 Double-Dipping
Final Thoughts
Soup-thick air over a short wall against a starter whose expected numbers are circling the field, and the most vertical swing in the sport against the most generous fastball still taking a turn every fifth day.
The sermon survives every result: at 20 and 21 cents, each of these misses roughly four times out of five — the price says so, and the price is the most honest analyst in the building. Last night cost the tally half a unit and changed nothing, because 45 consecutive rows have risked the same boring quarter unit. Tonight risks the same. That's the whole religion.
I'll keep putting my best out there every single day — on the show first, in the column always. Manage the bankroll like the season is long.
— Lindy
