The Quick Answer
Two Underdog NFL picks for the Week 6 Sunday slate, October 18: Dameon Pierce (PHI) Higher 1.5 receptions against the Panthers and Oronde Gadsden (LAC) Higher 1.5 receptions at the Chiefs. The case for each, the video and the current Underdog offer with code OS1 are below.
My two Underdog Fantasy plays for Sunday are both receptions lines, and both are about who is left standing. One is a running back who was never a receiving threat in Houston and is about to carry most of the work in a thinned-out Eagles backfield, for a home underdog with a backup quarterback throwing to him. The other is a second-year tight end on an 0-5 team that is a heavy road underdog at Arrowhead, coming off a season-high snap share. Both plays are the same idea. When the game script forces the ball somewhere, the receptions line is the cheapest way to bet on it. Pierce plays as a standard entry even though Underdog lists it below the standard multiplier, and Gadsden is available at better than standard.
The Picks: Week 6 Sunday Slate, October 18
| Player | Stat | Line | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce (PHI) | Receptions | 1.5 | Higher |
| Oronde Gadsden (LAC) | Receptions | 1.5 | Higher |
Dameon Pierce Higher 1.5 Receptions
Start with the oddity on the board. Underdog lists this line at less than its standard 1.87x multiplier, and yet it still comes out as a standard play when you add it to an entry. I am not sure why, and I am not complaining. Two catches win it.
The reason two catches are likely is the Eagles' depth chart, which has been hollowed out at two positions at once. Tanner McKee (PHI) steps in for Jalen Hurts (PHI), who was placed on injured reserve Saturday, at home against Carolina on Sunday. Behind McKee, the backfield is down to its fourth, fifth and sixth options. Will Shipley (PHI) is on injured reserve, Tank Bigsby (PHI) is on injured reserve and Saquon Barkley (PHI) is out. That leaves the running back work to Jaydon Blue (PHI), Carson Steele (PHI) and, in what could be a massive landslide in workload, Pierce.
Pierce is not known for his catching prowess, going back to his Texans days, and that is the whole reason this line sits at a catch and a half. He found two catches anyway last week in his Eagles debut against Jacksonville, on five targets by the ESPN box score, which clears this number. He was also on the field for 77% of the backfield snaps in that game. He could very well just be the workhorse for this offense on Sunday. With McKee at the helm, a number of checkdowns is not just live, but likely: a backup quarterback starting for a home underdog in a game with a total near the bottom of the slate, per the ESPN lines, is a quarterback who takes the short throw to his running back when the first read is covered. The risk is a true committee, where Blue and Steele eat the passing-down snaps and Pierce only sees first and second down. Last week's 77% says the Eagles are not splitting it that way. Give me the Higher.
Before you enter this one, check what the sportsbooks make of the same number on OddsShopper's live odds screen: the live NFL receptions prop odds board lines every book up side by side, and the NFL Underdog picks strategy guide covers how to compare a pick'em line to the books' no-vig number before you take a side.
Oronde Gadsden Higher 1.5 Receptions
We are getting this one at better than a standard multiplier, after one quiet game. Gadsden caught five passes on eight targets in Week 4 at Seattle, then was completely blanked on one target last week against Denver with fellow tight end Charlie Kolar (LAC) back in the lineup after two games out. The blank is the whole reason the number is attractive. What it hides is that Gadsden still saw a season-high 58% of the snaps in that game, with Kolar on the field. The role grew the week the targets disappeared, and I will take the role.
Across five games, the ESPN logs have him at nine catches on 16 targets, over this line in three of the five. Sunday's environment should push him back toward the Seattle version. The Chargers are 0-5 and headed to Arrowhead to face a 4-0 Chiefs team as a heavy road underdog, and while this is sure to be another disappointing Chargers outing, passing and come-from-behind mode should be required. A tight end on the field for a season-high snap share in a game his team is trailing is exactly the profile you want on a two-catch line. As it stands, Underdog has this available at better than a standard multiplier, and when I recorded this it was the best price on this prop I could find anywhere in the industry.
If the pick'em format is new to you, player props betting explained covers how a receptions line is graded and why a 1.5 line with a boosted multiplier is a different bet than the same number at a sportsbook.
Watch the full breakdown of both plays:
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