Lindy's Long Balls: 107 In The Shade, A Comeback Arm Walks Into The Furnace

Grading first, always: Monday's overnight card went 0-for-2. Abreu drew a first-inning walk and then watched Rutschman wrap one around the Pesky Pole in a 5-2 Red Sox win that had no use for our ticket. Down in Baltimore, Adell found the right pitcher (an RBI double off Rogers in the sixth, one level of elevation short) in a game where Mayo, a name this column has circled twice without pulling the trigger, hit TWO. The baseball gods keep sending invoices to the wrong address. We keep our books anyway:

Date	Play	Price	Effective	Result	Risked	P/L
8/17	Bobby Witt Jr. (KC)	16¢	+490	✅	0.25u	+1.23u
8/17	Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC)	21¢	+351	✅	0.25u	+0.88u
8/17	Mookie Betts (LAD)	15¢	+529	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/18	Jackson Merrill (SD)	13¢	+625	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/18	Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC)	18¢	+425	✅	0.25u	+1.06u
8/18	Mike Trout (LAA)	19¢	+398	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/18	Jo Adell (CLE)	14¢	+574	✅	0.25u	+1.43u
8/18	Corbin Carroll (AZ)	9¢	+945	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/19	Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC)	14¢	+574	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/19	Bryce Harper (PHI)	19¢	+398	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/19	Gunnar Henderson (BAL)	15¢	+529	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/20	Pete Alonso (BAL)	21¢	+351	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/20	Zach Neto (LAA)	17¢	+456	✅	0.25u	+1.14u
8/21	Francisco Lindor (NYM)	16¢	+490	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/21	Julio Rodríguez (SEA)	17¢	+456	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/21	Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC)	21¢	+351	✅	0.25u	+0.88u
8/22	Corbin Carroll (AZ)	16¢	+490	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/22	Jo Adell (CLE)	19¢	+398	✅	0.25u	+1.00u
8/23	Jo Adell (CLE)	23¢	+313	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/23	Jackson Merrill (SD)	18¢	+425	✅	0.25u	+1.06u
8/23	Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL)	13¢	+625	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/24	Junior Caminero (TB)	20¢	+373	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/24	Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC)	21¢	+351	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/24	Byron Buxton (MIN)	28¢	+240	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/25	Bryce Harper (PHI)	16¢	+490	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/25	Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)	15¢	+529	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/25	Manny Machado (SD)	13¢	+625	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/26	Matt Olson (ATL)	18¢	+425	✅	0.25u	+1.06u
8/26	Pete Alonso (BAL)	18¢	+425	✅	0.25u	+1.06u
8/27	Jac Caglianone (KC)	19¢	+398	✅	0.25u	+1.00u
8/27	Jackson Chourio (MIL)	17¢	+456	✅	0.25u	+1.14u
8/28	Matt Olson (ATL)	26¢	+266	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/28	Ozzie Albies (ATL)	14¢	+574	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/28	Zach Neto (LAA)	17¢	+456	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/29	Alex Bregman (CHC)	13¢	+625	✅	0.25u	+1.56u
8/29	Jackson Merrill (SD)	12¢	+685	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/30	Sal Stewart (CIN)	21¢	+351	✅	0.25u	+0.88u
8/30	Pete Alonso (BAL)	27¢	+252	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/31	Gunnar Henderson (BAL)	19¢	+398	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
8/31	Seiya Suzuki (CHC)	20¢	+373	✅	0.25u	+0.93u
9/1	Manny Machado (SD)	21¢	+351	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
9/1	Jordan Walker (STL)	book (bet365)	+350	✅	0.25u	+0.88u
9/1	Jackson Chourio (MIL)	22¢	+331	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
9/2	Wilyer Abreu (BOS)	15¢	+529	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
9/2	Francisco Lindor (NYM)	15¢	+529	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
9/3	Wilyer Abreu (BOS)	book (DraftKings)	+426	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
9/3	Cal Raleigh (SEA)	21¢	+351	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
9/4	Jac Caglianone (KC)	19¢	+398	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
9/4	Jordan Walker (STL)	21¢	+351	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
9/6	Jackson Chourio (MIL)	14¢	+574	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
9/6	Matt Olson (ATL)	22¢	+331	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
9/6	Brayan Rocchio (CLE)	6¢	+1464	✅	0.25u	+3.66u
9/7	Wilyer Abreu (BOS)	15¢	+529	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
9/7	Jo Adell (CLE)	14¢	+574	❌	0.25u	−0.25u
	TOTAL			17-for-54	13.50u	+11.60u (86% ROI)

Seventeen for 54, plus 11.60 units, 86% ROI, every ticket a quarter unit. The row that matters for perspective is still the 6-cent Rocchio line: without it the tally is +7.94 units on 53 plays, which is the whole argument for keeping the stake boring and the season long. Tonight's card was bought early, all three tickets fired before the books finished their coffee, and two of the three swings live in the same building, because Kansas City is once again doing its best impression of the surface of Mercury. Tonight pays for two things, air that carries and a bullpen nine righties deep. Names buried below, card at the bottom, sunscreen mandatory.

Every Kalshi price on today's card is my entry price from the early Tuesday board. I re-checked the asks and the book side just after 12:30 PM ET on Sept. 8, and all three had moved a penny by then, so the card at the bottom prints both numbers and says which register wins at each.

Corbin Burnes, the Arizona starter listed for his season debut at Kauffman Stadium at 7:40 ET (activation from the 60-day injured list still pending at writing), his first big-league pitch since June 2025. A rusty comeback arm, then a right-handed bullpen, is the whole thesis of today's first play.

The Furnace, Part One: A Comeback Arm And Nine Righties (7:40 ET)

Kansas City is under an Extreme Heat Warning that runs through 8 PM local, which covers first pitch and then some: the National Weather Service has a high near 99, heat index values as high as 107, still 96° at game time, with a south wind of 8 to 9 mph, which by my read blows out. This is the sixth straight home date at Kauffman and the third in this heat dome, and tonight the visiting starter is a story all by himself. Corbin Burnes is listed for his SEASON DEBUT, his first big-league pitch in some 15 months after Tommy John surgery (his last major league appearance was June 1, 2025), and by Arizona's rehab reporting, velocity a tick or two under the old vintage and a buildup that topped out around 53 pitches. The line you can check yourself is thinner still: his last logged rehab outing was Aug. 29 for Triple-A Reno, two innings and 17 pitches. One fine-print item before the story: as of this morning's roster pull he was still on the 60-day injured list, so confirm the activation before you fire. Respect to a great pitcher on the comeback trail. Also, this column bets math, and the math says: short start, rusty feel, thick 96° air, then the bullpen door.

And HERE is the tell the market slept on: Arizona's active bullpen is nine right-handed relievers and exactly two lefties. Whoever's swinging left-handed for Kansas City tonight is going to see righty after righty after righty, all night, in air that carries.

Which is why the ticket belongs to Carter Jensen, the rookie catcher who led off Monday night against these same Diamondbacks: first crack at a rusty comeback arm, then a parade of right-handers for a lefty bat that has hit 19 of his 22 homers against righties, slugging .476 in the split. The form is dated and loud: four homers in a seven-game stretch (Aug. 28 in Cleveland, two on Sept. 2 and another Sept. 3 against Miami), a .421 average through his first five September games, an 11.3% barrel rate with 45.5% hard-hit. Half of his 22 homers have come at Kauffman, which matters for the fine print: the park historically eats homers, but the walls were rebuilt this year (MLB's venue listing has the power alleys in from 385 to 379 feet, with the lines pushed out to 347 and 344), and tonight the weather is doing the renovating anyway. The price against the profile: he has homered in 21 of 134 games this year, a 15.7% clip, and a 15¢ ticket needs about 15.9% after the fee, so the season rate alone lands a hair under par and the heat, the wind and the nine righties are the edge. One more piece of fine print: no activation, no ticket. A rested Pfaadt or Kelly is a different bet entirely, and the bullpen math moves with whoever comes off the roster to make room. I fired at 15¢, +529 effective, clear of the best regulated book on the board (Caesars +500) by 29 points. By early afternoon the ask had ticked to 16¢, and that penny matters; the card below has the arithmetic.

The Furnace, Part Two: The Cutter Tax (Same Game)

Other dugout, same oven, and this is where the first story's air becomes the second story's weapon. Kansas City counters with Michael Wacha: a 3.36 ERA, very respectable, hiding a very specific leak. Sixteen of the 24 homers he's allowed belong to right-handed batters, who slug .513 against him while lefties slug .334 (a lopsided reverse-damage profile), and the cutter he throws 15% of the time is being slugged .578, his most-damaged pitch. Here's the callback to the park: 15 of those 24 homers came at Kauffman, in 83 innings, against nine in 93.2 innings on the road, and two of them came in his last start there, five days ago against Miami. Whatever the new alleys are or aren't doing, his split says the building has not been eating his mistakes. In 96° air with the flag, by my read, pointed out, mistakes with that cutter don't land on warning tracks.

The righty collecting: Nolan Arenado, batting cleanup for Arizona, as he did Monday. Full sunlight on this one, because the profile demands it. His Statcast page is genuinely gray, a 6.2% barrel rate and an average exit velocity that won't scare anyone, and his September is 4-for-22, half of those hits coming last night. That is exactly why the ticket costs 13 cents on a 22-homer bat. What the price misses: an 18.9° average launch angle (the man still lifts everything he touches, seats-band geometry with a smaller engine), 16 of his 22 homers off righties (mostly because 388 of his 528 plate appearances came against them; he needs no platoon edge here), and a two-run shot as recently as Sunday in Houston. This is a conditions-and-pitcher play: Arenado doesn't need a split, he needs Wacha's cutter. Launch angle plus a .578-slugged cutter plus a 107 heat index does the work the exit velocity can't. The baseline already clears: he has homered in 20 of 135 games, 14.8%, and a 13¢ ticket needs about 13.8% after the fee, before any of tonight's conditions are priced. I fired at 13¢, +625 effective. When I re-checked at 12:37 PM ET, Fanatics had hung +600 and bet365 +575, so my entry still leads the whole book side by 25 points, but the ask had moved to 14¢, and at that price take Fanatics +600 instead. The bat and the cutter don't care which window you use; the card below prints both registers.

The Bet On The Bat (7:40 ET, South Side)

Honesty leads this one, because the matchup does NOT. Pittsburgh starts Bubba Chandler, and the honest read on Chandler is stingy to righty power specifically, not good: a 4.30 ERA and 71 walks in 136 innings, but 2 homers allowed to righties all season, in 62 innings, against 10 to lefties. The Rate Field breeze, a 10 mph south-southeast wind in the evening forecast, even leans in by my read. So why is there a third ticket? Because sometimes the bet is simply the BAT, and Miguel Vargas owns the best Statcast profile of anyone on tonight's card by a mile: 30 homers, a 13.8% barrel rate, a 20.2° average launch angle, and a .513 expected slug that fully backs the results, an All-Star season (he made the AL team) that the market still prices like a platoon guy. Why? Because the board reads his platoon line and stops: 12 of the 30 came off lefties in 181 plate appearances, so the lazy read is "lefty masher." The other 18 came off right-handers, at a .519 slug in this building, and he bats second behind a leadoff man, in front of a Pirates starter walking 4.7 per nine. The math with the tax paid: 27 homer games in 141 this year, a 19.1% clip, against a 16¢ price that needs about 16.9% after the fee. Haircut that for Chandler's righty stinginess, call it 17 to 18%, and my 16¢ ticket is still a hair live; at the 17¢ ask you need 18.0%, the margin is gone on the season rate, and the entry is the bet, not the ask. He's hit 16 of those 30 at home with a .519 slug at Rate Field, took Zebby Matthews deep in the first inning Friday, and bats second, so the plate appearances pile up (and all those Chandler walks mean the extra ones pile up too). What has to go wrong for this to cash is specific: Chandler throws the four-seam 48% of the time, and the one that misses up to a 20.2° swing at Rate Field is the swing on the field most likely to end its flight in the seats. I'm in at 16¢, +490 effective; the best regulated book at midday was +475. Elite bat, honest matchup tax, an entry price that still clears the field.

The Card

You read the stories; here's the window slip. Kalshi's taker fee, roughly 7% × price × (1 − price), about a penny at these levels, is baked into every effective number below; the Kalshi fees breakdown carries the full math, and if the venue itself is new to you, start with how to bet MLB on Kalshi. The book prices are the live MLB home run odds screen at 12:37 PM ET on Sept. 8:

• Carter Jensen At 15¢ → +529 effective, my entry (best regulated book: Caesars +500, DraftKings +485; the entry wins by 29. The ask moved to 16¢ / +490 by early afternoon, and at that number Caesars leads by 10)
• Nolan Arenado At 13¢ → +625 effective, my entry (best regulated book: Fanatics +600, then bet365 +575; the entry wins by 25. The ask moved to 14¢ / +574 by early afternoon, and at that number Fanatics leads by 26)
• Miguel Vargas At 16¢ → +490 effective, my entry (best regulated book: Unibet and BetParx +475, then BetRivers +430; the entry wins by 15. The ask moved to 17¢ / +456 by early afternoon, and at that number Unibet leads by 19)

These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state), and every effective number above already includes its taker fee.

Quarter unit each, same as all 54 rows above. Sweep math for the skimmers: all three connect at my entries and it's +4.11 units on 0.75 risked, tally to +15.71; all three miss and it's three quarters of a unit, which is exactly why every play stays at a quarter unit. The furnace closes after tonight (the NWS has showers and thunderstorms likely in Kansas City on Wednesday, with the high falling into the 80s by afternoon), so this particular weather edge expires at midnight.

The card is the whole column in one slip: three prices bought early, every one of them ahead of the best regulated book at the time, and by lunch a single penny on each ask had handed the lead back to Caesars, Fanatics and Unibet. Same three bats, thirty-odd registers, and the winning window was a few hours wide. For the record, the midday books were Jensen 14¢ bid / 16¢ ask, Arenado 13 / 14, Vargas 16 / 17, thin markets where a cent is partly spread; the last prints, 16, 14 and 17, all sat a penny above the entries. Holding the Kalshi ask up against every book at once, and against the live odds screen for the game lines around it, is what OddsShopper Pro does for the rest of tonight's slate (the fee math above translates the Kalshi side). It runs a 7-day free trial, then code LINDY25 takes 25% off your first week or month.

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More on this: Lindy's Long Balls: The Miracle Cashed, Now We Rob The Sleeping Board · LINDY'S LONG BALLS: The Show Got There First \u2014 Soup-Thick Air At Camden · LINDY'S LONG BALLS: The Account Has Officially DOUBLED · LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Free Bombs To Start The Week \u2014 Coors Does · LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Four Straight And Feeling Dangerous \u2014 Double-Dipping

Final Thoughts

A rookie catcher penciled to lead off against a comeback arm and nine straight righties in 96° air, a launch-angle survivor collecting the cutter tax in the same oven, and the most underpriced 30-homer bat on tonight's board swinging into an honest headwind because the bat is that good.

The sermon survives the heat: at 13 to 16 cents, each of these misses about five times out of six. The prices confess it, the quarter units respect it, and the tally is up 11.60 units precisely because that arithmetic never takes a night off. Neither do we.

Before you tail any of the three, confirm Jensen, Arenado and Vargas are in the posted lineups (none were up when I wrote this), that Burnes has actually been activated and that Wacha and Chandler are still the listed starters, then check that the Kalshi ask still clears whatever your book is hanging, because by lunch it didn't on all three. If you want the full board instead of my three, the automated home run picks today hub prices every bat on the slate, and the rest of the OddsShopper crew posts free expert picks today.

I'll keep putting my best out there every single day. Hydrate, sprinkle responsibly, and let the thick air do its thing.

— Lindy

Lindy's Long Balls runs daily on OddsShopper; the Sept. 7 edition, the overnight Labor Day card at Fenway and Camden, is here, and the Sept. 6 edition with the 6-cent Rocchio miracle is here.