Grading first: Tuesday's furnace card went 0-for-3. Jensen, Arenado and Vargas combined to go 0-for-10 while the Diamondbacks and Royals saved both of their homers for the ninth inning of a game that went 11, long after we'd stopped enjoying it. And then Wednesday happened, and the baseball gods showed their sense of humor: the column took the day off, so NATURALLY the two bombs I fired off-card, Anthony and Lindor, both posted live in the Lindy Discord, both left the yard. Great for the wallet, great for the Discord, nothing for the tally, because this table has one rule: if it wasn't in print before first pitch, it doesn't get a row. (Jensen also homered Wednesday, exactly one day late for our ticket. Comedy is timing.) We march on:
| Date | Play | Price | Effective | Result | Risked | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/17 | Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 16¢ | +490 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.23u |
| 8/17 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 21¢ | +351 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 8/17 | Mookie Betts (LAD) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Jackson Merrill (SD) | 13¢ | +625 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/18 | Mike Trout (LAA) | 19¢ | +398 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 14¢ | +574 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.43u |
| 8/18 | Corbin Carroll (AZ) | 9¢ | +945 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 14¢ | +574 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Bryce Harper (PHI) | 19¢ | +398 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/20 | Pete Alonso (BAL) | 21¢ | +351 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/20 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 17¢ | +456 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.14u |
| 8/21 | Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 16¢ | +490 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/21 | Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | 17¢ | +456 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/21 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 21¢ | +351 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 8/22 | Corbin Carroll (AZ) | 16¢ | +490 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/22 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 19¢ | +398 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.00u |
| 8/23 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 23¢ | +313 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/23 | Jackson Merrill (SD) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/23 | Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | 13¢ | +625 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/24 | Junior Caminero (TB) | 20¢ | +373 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/24 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 21¢ | +351 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/24 | Byron Buxton (MIN) | 28¢ | +240 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/25 | Bryce Harper (PHI) | 16¢ | +490 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/25 | Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/25 | Manny Machado (SD) | 13¢ | +625 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/26 | Matt Olson (ATL) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/26 | Pete Alonso (BAL) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/27 | Jac Caglianone (KC) | 19¢ | +398 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.00u |
| 8/27 | Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 17¢ | +456 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.14u |
| 8/28 | Matt Olson (ATL) | 26¢ | +266 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/28 | Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 14¢ | +574 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/28 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 17¢ | +456 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/29 | Alex Bregman (CHC) | 13¢ | +625 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.56u |
| 8/29 | Jackson Merrill (SD) | 12¢ | +685 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/30 | Sal Stewart (CIN) | 21¢ | +351 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 8/30 | Pete Alonso (BAL) | 27¢ | +252 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/31 | Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 19¢ | +398 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/31 | Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 20¢ | +373 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.93u |
| 9/1 | Manny Machado (SD) | 21¢ | +351 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 9/1 | Jordan Walker (STL) | book (bet365) | +350 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 9/1 | Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 22¢ | +331 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 9/2 | Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 9/2 | Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 9/3 | Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | book (DraftKings) | +426 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 9/3 | Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 21¢ | +351 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 9/4 | Jac Caglianone (KC) | 19¢ | +398 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 9/4 | Jordan Walker (STL) | 21¢ | +351 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 9/6 | Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 14¢ | +574 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 9/6 | Matt Olson (ATL) | 22¢ | +331 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 9/6 | Brayan Rocchio (CLE) | 6¢ | +1464 | ✅ | 0.25u | +3.66u |
| 9/7 | Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 9/7 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 14¢ | +574 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 9/8 | Carter Jensen (KC) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 9/8 | Nolan Arenado (AZ) | 13¢ | +625 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 9/8 | Miguel Vargas (CWS) | 16¢ | +490 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| TOTAL | 17-for-57 | 14.25u | +10.85u (76% ROI) |
Seventeen for 57, still up 10.85 units on quarter-unit bricks. Tonight is a one-bullet night: a single swing, chosen because it's the loudest collision on the board. Name's buried below, card at the bottom, you know the drill's replacement by now.
Jared Jones, the Pittsburgh starter listed at Rate Field at 7:40 ET, back in the rotation since May 29 after elbow surgery. He is the arm tonight's one bullet is aimed at, not the pick; the bat is named below.
One Bullet On The South Side (7:40 ET)
Pittsburgh sends Jared Jones to Rate Field, and the profile is a very specific kind of dangerous: a 98.3-mph four-seamer he throws 46% of the time, top-shelf velocity, honest slider behind it, that hitters are nonetheless slugging .453 with a .465 expected slug, because fastballs coming back from elbow surgery tend to be straight before they're sneaky. He's been back in the rotation since May 29, and the line since is 17 starts, a 4.46 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP, with 10.5 strikeouts per nine that say the stuff is real. The damage has a direction, too: 7 of his 12 homers allowed have gone to left-handed bats, who slug .448 against him while righties slug .375. Good arm, real talent, one exploitable lane: hard contact from the left side, off the heater.
And the left-handed bat waiting in that lane owns the loudest raw-contact profile this column has EVER put on a ticket: Munetaka Murakami, whose Statcast page reads like a typo, a 19.3% barrel rate, 57.5% hard-hit, and a 94.0-mph average exit velocity. For scale: our beloved 6-cent miracle Rocchio barrels 3.2% of his batted balls; Murakami barrels one in FIVE. The rookie has 31 homers in 110 games with 25 of them against right-handed pitching (.525 slug in the split), and after 16 straight games without one, Aug. 19 through Sept. 4, 5-for-59 with 27 strikeouts, he's warming at the exact right time: homers on Sept. 5 and again LAST NIGHT against this same Pirates staff, an eighth-inning changeup from Luke Weaver that left the bat at 110 mph and landed 381 feet away in right-center. Full sunlight, as always: he hits .210 and strikes out a ton (169 times in 482 trips; this is a three-true-outcomes ticket, and we're buying exactly one of the outcomes), Rate Field plays about neutral for homers, and the gameday feed at writing had 71° with an 8 mph crosswind right to left, and 71° air won't help anything hang. That's the price's job to know, and the price is generous anyway. The bar for a 21¢ ticket is about 22.2% after the fee; he has homered in 29 of his 110 games, 26.4%, before you say a word about the platoon side or the fastball. Kalshi's 21¢, +351 effective, beat the best book number by 31 when I wrote this; the card below carries the receipt. One swing at 94 mph is all the thesis needs.
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The Card
One line tonight. Kalshi's taker fee, roughly 7% × price × (1 − price), about a penny here, is baked in; the Kalshi fees breakdown carries the full math, and if the venue itself is new to you, start with how to bet MLB on Kalshi. The book prices are the live MLB home run odds screen as of 3:54 PM ET on Sept. 10:
- Munetaka Murakami At 21¢ → +351 effective, my entry; FanDuel +320 was the best book when I wrote this, so the entry led by 31
- By 3:54 PM ET: bet365 and theScore +350, FanDuel +310, Kalshi 20¢ bid / 21¢ ask with the last trade at 21, so the exchange still leads the regulated board by a single point
These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state), and every effective number above already includes its taker fee.
Quarter unit, same as all 57 rows above. Math for the skimmers: he connects and it's +0.88 units on 0.25 risked, tally to +11.73; he doesn't and it's a quarter-unit loss, which is exactly why every play stays at a quarter unit. One housekeeping note before lock: the White Sox list Hagen Smith, a lefty with ten relief appearances and no starts this year, so an opener or a first start, and our ticket doesn't care who pitches for Chicago. The lineup is posted: he's started back-to-back days and he's in again tonight, batting third behind Vargas. Fire.
One ticket, one price. Holding the Kalshi ask up against every book at once, and against the live odds screen for the game lines around it, is what OddsShopper Pro does for the rest of tonight's slate (the fee math above translates the Kalshi side). It runs a 7-day free trial, then code LINDY25 takes 25% off your first week or month.
More on this: Lindy's Long Balls: 107 In The Shade, A Comeback Arm Walks Into The Furnace · Lindy's Long Balls: The Miracle Cashed, Now We Rob The Sleeping Board · LINDY'S LONG BALLS: The Show Got There First, Soup-Thick Air At Camden · LINDY'S LONG BALLS: The Account Has Officially DOUBLED
Final Thoughts
One bullet: the hardest average contact on the South Side, on the correct side of the platoon, against a comeback fastball that's leaking slug to lefties.
The sermon fits in one breath tonight: at 21 cents this ticket misses about three times in four, the price says so honestly, which is why it gets the same quarter unit as a 6-cent miracle and a 26-cent chalk piece. Same stake, every ticket, every night. That's how a tally survives long enough to get lucky and good.
Before you tail, check that the Kalshi ask still clears whatever your book is hanging; the card above has the afternoon numbers. If you want the full board instead of my one, the automated home run picks today hub prices every bat on the slate, and the rest of the OddsShopper crew posts free expert picks today.
I'll keep putting my best out there every single day. One swing tonight. Make it count, big fella.
— Lindy
Lindy's Long Balls runs daily on OddsShopper; the Sept. 8 edition, the three-ticket furnace card, is here, and the Sept. 7 overnight Labor Day card is here.
