Sometimes you bet the hitter, sometimes you bet the SKY. And Saturday the sky came through before some of you found your seats. First inning at Wrigley, wind howling out exactly as advertised, and Bregman rode it to center field for his 20th of the year, a two-run shot off Andrew Abbott in what became a 17-5 Cubs demolition featuring SIX Chicago homers (Pete Crow-Armstrong hit three of them by himself, because of course he did). Our 13-cent ticket at 7.25 cashed for +1.56 units before the second inning. A bomb a day keeps the trolls away, and Saturday's came gift-wrapped by the jet stream. The other half of the card didn't cooperate. Merrill went 0-for-4 with a walk in a 7-6 Rays win, so the Kalshi card goes 1-for-2 and the tally climbs to a new high anyway:
| Date | Play | Price | Effective (dec.) | Result | Risked | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/17 | Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 16¢ | 5.90 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.23u |
| 8/17 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 21¢ | 4.51 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 8/17 | Mookie Betts (LAD) | 15¢ | 6.29 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Jackson Merrill (SD) | 13¢ | 7.25 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 18¢ | 5.25 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/18 | Mike Trout (LAA) | 19¢ | 4.98 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 14¢ | 6.74 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.43u |
| 8/18 | Corbin Carroll (AZ) | 9¢ | 10.45 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 14¢ | 6.74 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Bryce Harper (PHI) | 19¢ | 4.98 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 15¢ | 6.29 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/20 | Pete Alonso (BAL) | 21¢ | 4.51 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/20 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 17¢ | 5.56 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.14u |
| 8/21 | Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 16¢ | 5.90 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/21 | Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | 17¢ | 5.56 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/21 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 21¢ | 4.51 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 8/22 | Corbin Carroll (AZ) | 16¢ | 5.90 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/22 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 19¢ | 4.98 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.00u |
| 8/23 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 23¢ | 4.13 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/23 | Jackson Merrill (SD) | 18¢ | 5.25 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/23 | Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | 13¢ | 7.25 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/24 | Junior Caminero (TB) | 20¢ | 4.73 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/24 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 21¢ | 4.51 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/24 | Byron Buxton (MIN) | 28¢ | 3.40 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/25 | Bryce Harper (PHI) | 16¢ | 5.90 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/25 | Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 15¢ | 6.29 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/25 | Manny Machado (SD) | 13¢ | 7.25 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/26 | Matt Olson (ATL) | 18¢ | 5.25 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/26 | Pete Alonso (BAL) | 18¢ | 5.25 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/27 | Jac Caglianone (KC) | 19¢ | 4.98 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.00u |
| 8/27 | Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 17¢ | 5.56 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.14u |
| 8/28 | Matt Olson (ATL) | 26¢ | 3.66 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/28 | Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 14¢ | 6.74 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/28 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 17¢ | 5.56 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/29 | Alex Bregman (CHC) | 13¢ | 7.25 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.56u |
| 8/29 | Jackson Merrill (SD) | 12¢ | 7.85 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| TOTAL | 13-for-36 | 9.00u | +8.75u (97% ROI) |
Thirteen winners, 36 swings, and the account is a whisker from doubling everything it's ever risked. Two more today, both with the shelf life you need to actually beat the closing number, and one of them from the exact same launchpad that paid us yesterday.
Andrew Abbott served up Saturday's first-inning Bregman homer that cashed the 13-cent ticket. He's not on today's card; today's two names, and the pitchers they're facing, are below.
Sal Stewart: 1+ HR (21¢, Effective 4.51) — Reds @ Cubs, 7:20 ET
The flags at Wrigley are pointing out again tonight (the forecast has roughly 10 mph out of the south-southwest at first pitch, blowing toward the bleachers), and this time we're betting the visiting dugout, because the Cubs are throwing Shota Imanaga, and Shota Imanaga has a secret his 3.78 ERA has been keeping for him: 30 home runs allowed in 145.1 innings, 1.9 per nine, with a FIP nearly a full run worse than the surface number. Roughly two-thirds of those bombs belong to right-handed bats, the curveball is getting slugged at a .602 expected clip, and everything he throws lives in the air. A fly-ball lefty, a lighter version of Saturday's breeze still blowing out, a national TV audience. You see where this is going.
Stewart is the righty standing in the right place. Long-time readers know I'm not a hot-streak guy, so here's the launch-and-price case first: 30 homers, a 13.1% barrel rate, and a .295 average and .533 slug with 8 bombs against lefties (.927 OPS in the split), a legitimate platoon mismatch at a price that hasn't caught up to it. And then, because the tally demands full disclosure in both directions: the man has homered at Wrigley in each of the last two days, part of four bombs since Aug. 19. I'm not paying for the streak. I'm paying 21 cents for the barrels, the platoon, and the wind; the streak is just the market's warning label arriving late. DraftKings has him at 3.82; Kalshi's 4.51 against that 3.82 is about 18% more back on the same swing. One housekeeping note: Chicago has a storm window in the late afternoon that's forecast to clear before first pitch. Give the radar one glance before lock, then enjoy the show.
Free: The Weekly PM Market Brief
The 8-model panel's graded record, the week's biggest market-vs-model gaps, and what's spiking next. One email, Sundays.
Unsubscribe anytime, one click. We never share your email.
These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange; Kalshi's own policy requires traders to be 18+, and availability varies by state.
Pete Alonso: 1+ HR (27¢, Effective 3.52) — Orioles @ Athletics, 4:05 ET
The Polar Bear meets the most generous arm on today's board. Jeffrey Springs has allowed 30 home runs in 118.1 innings, 2.3 per nine, most on the slate, behind a 6.08 ERA and a 6.14 FIP that says every bit of it is earned. In fairness, Savant's expected ERA (4.94) argues he's caught some bad strand-rate luck this season, but the homers are no illusion: the sweeper's getting slugged .579, the slider .531, and the four-seam has been one of the most damaged fastballs in baseball by run value. He doesn't discriminate, either. Lefties and righties are both slugging north of .520 off him. Meanwhile Sutter Health Park grades about neutral for homers in our park table, so this pick is the arm, not the building; the forecast is sunshine, 89° and a whisper of wind.
Alonso's profile needs no lawyer: 32 homers, a 14% barrel rate, a 57.1% hard-hit rate, and a 94.2-mph average exit velocity, top-shelf contact quality by every measure we track, with six dated bombs since Aug. 15, including back-to-back games in St. Louis last week. The fine print, read aloud: 27 cents ties the richest neighborhood this column has ever shopped in (we paid 28 for Buxton and 26 for Olson, and neither cashed), and the book edge here is a photo finish. BetRivers sits at 3.45 against Kalshi's 3.52. So this one is less about beating the board and more about the cleanest matchup on it: the best power bat on the field against the most homer-prone starter on this slate, in daylight. Sometimes the edge IS the matchup. (The runner-up was Murakami at the same 4.51 as Stewart, but the Target Field wind leans in and his last homer was Aug. 18. Pass.)
The Fee Math (Quick Version)
For the new arrivals: Kalshi charges takers roughly 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, about a penny at these levels, so every effective number above is post-fee, stated in decimal (your total return per $1), and directly comparable to your book. Every price here is my Sunday-morning entry price, Kalshi and book alike; the board moves, so shop the number before you fire. Today's pair:
- Sal Stewart At 21¢ → 4.51 effective (best book: 3.82 at DraftKings; Kalshi by 0.69 in decimal)
- Pete Alonso At 27¢ → 3.52 effective (best book: 3.45 at BetRivers; Kalshi by a nose)
Fire early, keep the shelf life, and remember the evergreen prediction-market perk: nobody on Kalshi cuts your stake for beating the close; the only ceiling is the market's own position caps.
That Stewart gap (4.51 on Kalshi against 3.82 at the best book) is the whole sermon in one line: same swing, two registers. Shopping one market across Kalshi and the books is where the gap comes from, and price edge, not any one week's ledger, is what survives a season. You can run today's full board yourself on the live MLB home run prop odds screen, and OddsShopper Pro does the book-to-book comparison for you (the fee math above translates the Kalshi side). It runs a 7-day free trial, then code LINDY25 takes 25% off your first week or month.
- Lindy's Long Balls Aug. 29: The Flags Point at the Bleachers, Plus a Dome Tax
- Kalshi Home Run Picks Today: Carroll And Adell In Lindy's Long Balls
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: A Two-Piece Thursday — Camden's Cooking
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: The Ledger Doesn't Lie — A Comerica Surprise
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Thin Air On Repeat, A Flat Fastball Problem
Final Thoughts
The same yard that paid us Saturday, a lighter version of the breeze still pointed at the bleachers, aimed at a fly-ball lefty whose ERA writes checks his FIP can't cash, and the Polar Bear in Sacramento against the most homer-prone starter on the slate.
Now the sermon, which does not take Sundays off: at 21 and 27 cents these are still underdogs to hit. The 21-cent ticket misses about four times in five, and the 27-cent one isn't far behind. That's not a flaw in the plan; that IS the plan, priced honestly. The tally up top sits at a 97% ROI precisely because every one of those 36 rows risked the same boring quarter unit, heater or skid, no exceptions. Same today. Same tomorrow.
I'll keep putting my best out there for you every single day. You keep the stakes small enough that the wind gets to be fun.
— Lindy
Lindy's Long Balls runs daily on OddsShopper. New to the exchange side? Start with how to bet MLB on Kalshi and the Kalshi fee breakdown; the rolling board of home run prices lives on the MLB home run picks hub, and the rest of the crew posts free expert picks every day. Bets are opinions, and no outcome is ever promised. Sportsbook offers referenced here are 21+ where applicable; please gamble responsibly.
