Lindy's MLB Picks Today: Tuesday June 23 Best Bets
If you watch my MLB Leans, Likes & Locks show on the OddsShopper YouTube channel, you know the drill: I go game by game through the whole baseball slate, attach a real price to every play, and pass on anything that does not clear my break-even number. After Sunday's data meltdown wiped out my Monday video, I am back for a big Tuesday board, and it kicks off with a banger. Here is the Tuesday, June 23 card and the read behind each play.
In Summary
- My headline play is a home run banger off the top of the card: Jose Altuve to homer at +575 against Shane Bieber, a number I think should sit closer to +425.
- The moneylines I fired: Seattle Mariners -120 at Pittsburgh and the St. Louis Cardinals at a near pick'em price, my favorite of the grouping.
- My other home run shots: Ceddanne Rafaela at +525 in Colorado and Miguel Vargas against a changeup-first righty.
- The thread through all of it is the same one the show is built on: find the gap between the fair price and the price on the screen. That is exactly what the OddsShopper odds screen is built to surface.
- New to OddsShopper? You can try the same tools free for 7 days, and code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OS Pro.
Watch the Video
I walk the entire board game by game in the show below. This article pulls out the plays I actually fired and the reasoning, but the full card is in the video.
Watch on YouTube
Tuesday's Card at a Glance
Here are the plays I leaned on hardest, with the price I cited and the one-line reason. Prices move fast, so treat these as the read, not a live quote. Always confirm the current number on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen before you fire.
| Play | Game / Spot | Price I Cited | The Read |
|---|
| Jose Altuve to homer | Astros at Blue Jays, vs. Shane Bieber | +575 | Likely leadoff bat vs. a righty-power arm; the number should be nearer +425 |
| Seattle Mariners ML | at Pirates, Kirby vs. Keller | -120 | Kirby limits lefty power and is a clear class step up on Keller |
| Dodgers run line | at Twins, vs. Kendry Rojas | +125 | Joe Ryan scratched; I have the Dodgers over 50% to win by two-plus |
| St. Louis Cardinals ML | vs. Diamondbacks, E-Rod vs. Leahy | near pick'em | Both starters leak power; my favorite price of the night |
| Ceddanne Rafaela to homer | Red Sox at Rockies, vs. Sean Sullivan | +525 | Righty bat vs. a soft-tossing 23-year-old lefty in Coors |
| Miguel Vargas to homer | White Sox vs. Guardians, vs. Parker Messick | bet pre-show | One of the best launch angles in baseball vs. a changeup-first righty |
My Banger Off the Top: Jose Altuve to Homer at +575
This is the play I am most fired up about, so it is worth slowing down on. The Astros are in Toronto and the Blue Jays are bringing back Shane Bieber, who got brutalized on his Triple-A rehab before this call-up. Bieber has plenty of name recognition, but here is what matters for a bet: he gives up crazy right-handed power. His expected ISO against righties has been ugly the last two seasons, and his knuckle curve, his best swing-and-miss pitch, is something he throws almost entirely to lefties. That leaves right-handed bats sitting on a fastball he leaves up.
Now layer in the lineup. Jeremy Peña hurt his hamstring on Monday, and I would be surprised if he is in there Tuesday. With Peña out, I think Jose Altuve is the leading candidate to lead off for Houston, which means more plate appearances against a pitcher who hands out righty power. Altuve is not the loft hitter he used to be this season (his launch angle has dipped to around 6 degrees), but go back a year and he sat at a 16.4-degree launch with 19 home runs in 530 plate appearances. If he hits leadoff against this guy, I think +575 is drastically too long.
Here is the part that actually makes it a bet, and I will say it plainly: I am not predicting Altuve goes deep. I am saying the price is longer than the real chance. With Peña dinged up and Altuve in line to lead off, I think this number should be closer to +425, and his two-homer price (+7,000) should be well inside +5,000. That gap is the edge. I will be honest about the variance too: I am only 1-for-6 on these two-homer dart plays this season, though one of them hit at +4,000 last Wednesday. A single result tells you nothing. The math only shows up over a season of bets priced this way. (If the +EV logic behind that is new to you, start there.) And yes, I am biased against Altuve. Biases do not make you money, so I am on him anyway.
New to OddsShopper? It scans 100-plus sportsbooks and prediction markets and flags where the price is longer than the true odds, the exact gap I am hunting by hand on a play like Altuve. You can try it free for 7 days, and code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OS Pro. Start your free trial
The Moneylines I Fired: Mariners -120 and Cardinals at Pick'em
Two moneyline plays carried real conviction for me.
Seattle Mariners -120 at Pittsburgh. George Kirby is not usually my favorite arm to back, mostly because he is so often overvalued at home in Seattle, where you see him at -195 or -210. But the graphic lies; this one is at PNC Park, and I can get the Mariners at -120. He is so much better than Mitch Keller it is not funny, and he limits lefty power. I get that Pittsburgh has been good against righties all year, and I get that Seattle's back half looks thin with injuries, but Dominic Canzone has been that dude, Julio Rodríguez is back in the lineup, and Cal Raleigh is Cal Raleigh. My break-even on this game sat higher than -120, so I am shocked I can get them at this number.
St. Louis Cardinals moneyline is actually my favorite of the grouping. Eduardo Rodriguez carries a shiny 2.45 ERA, but it is a mirage; over his last 30 days he has been giving up crazy power to righties, and there are righties in this Arizona lineup to worry about. On the other side, Kyle Leahy gets ground balls but gives up real lefty power. When you put both of those together and see how small the hold is across books (right around pick'em, with St. Louis even-money in spots), it is just too efficient a price to pass. I also have a lean on Corbin Carroll's 1.5 total bases, but the Cardinals moneyline is the bet.
The Dodgers Run Line at +125
This was the first play I made on Tuesday. Minnesota was supposed to start Joe Ryan, a known quantity, and the news that he was scratched showed up on the Twins' Twitter first (one more reason to keep alerts on). In his place comes Kendry Rojas, a lefty who can spin it but is a big step down from Ryan. Justin Wrobleski really limits right-handed power for the Dodgers, and the Twins are not going to run more than a couple of lefties at him anyway. I got the Dodgers run line at +125 (it is already down to +105, so I might be onto something), and anything with a plus sign in front of it works for me here because I have the Dodgers over 50% to win this game by two or more runs. If you want the mechanics of laying or taking a run line, the odds screen lines up every book's number side by side.
The Home Run Darts: Rafaela and Vargas
Two more longballs made my card, both about hitter-versus-pitcher shape.
- Ceddanne Rafaela to homer at +525 (Red Sox at Coors). Sean Sullivan is a soft-tossing 23-year-old lefty who rarely touches 90 on the gun, and a lot of righties are going to have fun with him in Colorado. The Red Sox do not have a long list I love, but Rafaela is on it. I played him today against Feltner at +625, and this spot at +525 is even better.
- Miguel Vargas to homer (White Sox vs. Guardians). I ended up betting this one about 20 minutes before I started recording. Parker Messick's primary pitch to righties is a changeup, and if anyone is going to loft one of those, it is Vargas, who has one of the best launch angles of anybody in baseball. Heads up on this game: the White Sox have a habit of announcing real starters an hour or two before first pitch, so Sean Burke being the listed name does not lock him in. Treat any Guardians-side prop split against Burke carefully.
I also took a quarter-unit dart on Kodai Senga at +126 in the Cubs-Mets game. The ghost forkball has not been at its best, and he leads this slate in home run rate, so I get why the price drifted to plus money. But I trust him to find enough whiffs against the Cubs, and with a doubleheader coming Wednesday, neither pen wants to be decimated tonight. A small slice on the over in Orioles-Angels (over 8.5 at -120) rounds out the night; Ryan Johnson's ugly ERA and decent hitting weather in Anaheim are enough for an add, nothing more.
The Leans I Did Not Fire
Not everything cleared my number, and the show is just as much about the passes. A few I am watching:
- Detroit Tigers moneyline. I almost played it. Carlos Rodón is not what he was, and he has given up crazy lefty power (a 265 ISO this year, though his expected number nearer 185 says some regression is coming). The catch: the Tigers are one of the most platoon-heavy teams in baseball, so I am not sure I get the lefty bats I want. A lean, not a bet.
- Bryce Harper to homer at +375. The wind was in at his former ballpark in Washington and Zack Littell is hittable, but it would be too convenient and the weather is not screaming at me. Fringe playable.
- Over 9.5 in Brewers-Reds. Nick Lodolo gives up righty power and Brandon Sproat has been leaking it to both sides lately. Just a lean.
- Texas Rangers stolen base props against Sandy Alcantara, who is the most targetable of the Marlins arms on the bases.
How I Actually Build This Card (and How to Copy It)
Strip away the specific names and the method repeats for any slate:
- Start from a fair price, not a feeling. If the offered number is not past my break-even, there is no bet, no matter how much I like the player. Most games on my card end in a pass.
- Let the park and the lineup move the number. A scratched ace, an injured leadoff bat, wind blowing in, a soft-tossing lefty in Coors. Those are the inputs that make a price wrong before the market catches up.
- Shop the number once you have a play. I name the exact book and price for a reason. Taking the worse number leaves free expected value behind, which is the whole idea behind closing line value.
- Size to the spot. My home run shots are quarter-unit darts by default. The variance is real, so respect it. That edge-proportional approach is just bankroll management in practice.
You can run that same loop without doing the legwork by hand. The OddsShopper odds screen lines up every book and prediction market on one page so you can shop the number in seconds, and it shows the de-vigged true odds next to the offered price, so the gap I find manually is just sitting there for you. The liquidity tool and the live in-game tool are the same ones I lean on during the show when a game is in motion. Want just today's longballs? Our MLB home run picks page refreshes daily. New to removing the vig? The odds screen is where line shopping stops being theory and turns into a click.
FAQ
Who is Lindy and what is Leans, Likes & Locks?
Lindy is me, Eric Lindquist. I host the MLB Leans, Likes & Locks show on the OddsShopper YouTube channel. I go through every game on the slate, attach a real price to each play, and grade everything against a break-even number.
What is your favorite play on June 23?
My banger off the top of the card is Jose Altuve to homer at +575 against Shane Bieber, a number I think should sit closer to +425. The St. Louis Cardinals moneyline at a near pick'em price is my favorite of the moneylines.
Why do you pass on so many games?
Because a bet only exists when the price on the screen is longer than my break-even number. If the number is not in my favor, there is no edge to take, so I move on. That discipline is the point of the show.
How do I find these price gaps myself?
The OddsShopper odds screen does it automatically: it shops every book and prediction market at once and shows the true (de-vigged) odds next to the offered price, so you can see where the value is without building it by hand.
Try the Tools I Use
My edge is not a hot streak. It is pricing every play against the real number and only firing when the gap is in my favor. OddsShopper is what does that for you: it scans 100-plus sportsbooks and prediction markets, shows the de-vigged true odds next to the price, and flags the bets that are actually in your favor.
Try it free for 7 days, and code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OS Pro or OS Core. Start your free trial
