The Quick Answer
Two Underdog NFL picks today for Falcons-Saints on Monday Night Football: Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) Lower 15.65 fantasy points and Kendre Miller (NO) Higher 23.5 rushing yards. The full case for each, the video and the current Underdog offer with code OS1 are below.
Both of my Underdog Fantasy plays for the NFC South game at the Caesars Superdome, 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN between two 1-2 teams, come from the same read on this game: a backfield that lost its starter, and a quarterback whose offense scores a different way than the fantasy line assumes. The receipts are in order too. Sunday's card auto-cashed when Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) finished with 50 combined yards against a Lower 72.5 in London, even with the Darius Slayton (IND) leg voided, which makes seven cashes in the first 12 Underdog cards of the season on these shorts.
The Picks: Falcons-Saints Monday Night Football, October 5
| Player | Stat | Line | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) | Fantasy points | 15.65 | Lower |
| Kendre Miller (NO) | Rushing yards | 23.5 | Higher |
Michael Penix Jr. Lower 15.65 Fantasy Points
Penix was excellent in Green Bay in his season debut, his first game since Week 11 of last year: 18-of-25 for 256 yards, one touchdown and one interception in a 35-14 win, after Cooper Rush (ATL) and Jack Strand (ATL) had managed one passing touchdown combined in the two losses before it. The Saints could be an even softer spot. New Orleans has allowed 31, 17 and 35 points, and its season-long EPA numbers look bad, but look at who it played: at Detroit, at Baltimore, then the much improved Raiders at home. These Falcons may be the weakest offense the Saints have faced in the early going of 2026.
Here is why I still want the Lower. That Green Bay night, 256 yards, one score and the interception, was roughly a 13-point game on the standard pick'em table of four points a passing touchdown, and the same night without the pick still lands short of 15.65. The Falcons put up 35 that night and three of the five touchdowns were runs, two of them by Bijan Robinson (ATL) on his way to 194 rushing yards. Atlanta has thrown two touchdown passes in three games as a team, one of them Penix's own, and the Saints have allowed 165, 108 and 113 rushing yards in theirs, so the path of least resistance for Atlanta is the same one it took in Green Bay. Penix can be very reliable moving the ball and still come in under this line, which is why I framed it on the video as needing two passing touchdowns, or a yardage night well past his debut, to clear it. The risk is a shootout: New Orleans is without Carl Granderson (NO), Anfernee Jennings (NO) and Kaden Elliss (NO) on defense, and Tyler Shough (NO) has eight touchdown passes in three games, so a game where Atlanta has to keep up puts that second score in play. That is the risk a Lower is taking on, and I am happy to short the whole Penix portfolio at anything above 15 points.
OddsShopper's live odds screen hangs the sportsbook version of this market next to the pick'em number: the live NFL fantasy points odds page puts every book side by side, the same odds comparison the NFL Underdog picks strategy guide walks through before you enter a card.
Kendre Miller Higher 23.5 Rushing Yards
Through three weeks the Falcons have been incredible against the run, holding Pittsburgh to 58 rushing yards, Carolina to 68 and Green Bay to 17, so a Higher on a Saints running back needs a reason. The reason is Travis Etienne Jr. (NO). He aggravated a hamstring injury against the Raiders, went on injured reserve Thursday, and took 30 carries over three games with him. Kellen Moore said the plan is to unleash Alvin Kamara (NO), and that is where the line lives. Miller has been the drastically better runner of the two for a season and change, 4.1 yards a carry on 47 carries in 2025 against Kamara's 3.6 on 131, a small sample, and the 2026 split points the same way: Miller at 3.4 on 13 carries, Kamara at 2.8 on 18, 15 yards on nine in Baltimore and 36 on nine against the Raiders, with a 33.3% rushing success rate, the number I pulled for the video. He also did not play in the opener and has been dinged up since, so two straight nine-carry games do not read like a back about to swallow 20. With Kamara sidelined that night in Detroit, Miller ran nine times for 30 yards and a touchdown, already past this number. Miller's own usage since is the honest caveat: he did not play in Week 2 and got four carries against the Raiders, so this is a role bet on the Etienne move, not a continuation.
One note on building the card. These two plays want different scripts: a Falcons blowout on the ground helps the Penix Lower and hurts Miller, and a Saints blowout does the reverse, so the window where both hit is a close game where Atlanta runs and New Orleans stays within a score. The bar is low. Miller clears 23.5 with seven carries at his 2026 average of 3.4 yards, or six at last year's 4.1, and I think he integrates into first- and second-down work a lot more than the market expects, with undrafted rookie CJ Donaldson (NO) the other body in the room. The Atlanta front may be thinner too: inside linebacker Divine Deablo (ATL) is questionable with a hamstring and rookie sixth-rounder Harold Perkins (ATL) would likely start in his place, with edge rusher Samson Ebukam (ATL) also questionable. The way this loses is a Kamara-heavy script or a Saints offense that falls behind and throws 56 times again, as it did in Detroit. At 23.5, the carries do the work.
If the market is new to you, player props betting explained covers how a rushing line is set and graded, and the live NFL rushing yards odds board shows where the books hang the same number.
Watch the full breakdown of both plays:
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