The Quick Answer
Two Underdog NFL picks today for Colts-Commanders in London: Darius Slayton (IND) Higher 13.5 receiving yards and Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WSH) Lower 72.5 rushing plus receiving yards. One is a target-share read on a receiver room with two names missing, the other is a game-script read on a back who leaves the field when his team trails. The reasoning, the video and the current Underdog offer with code OS1 are below.
Week 4 opens early. The Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders kick off at 9:30 a.m. ET at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, with Indianapolis a 4.5-point favorite and the Kalshi winner contract at 66 cents on the Colts. Morning football deserves its own card, and both of my plays come from the same place: the injury report, which has thinned one receiver room and one backfield in ways the lines have not caught up with.
The Picks: Colts Vs Commanders, London, Sunday, October 4
| Player | Stat | Line | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton (IND) | Receiving yards | 13.5 | Higher |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WSH) | Rushing + receiving yards | 72.5 | Lower |
Slayton Gets The Outside Snaps
Slayton makes his Colts debut in this one, and the role waiting for him is bigger than a debut usually offers. Alec Pierce (IND) is on injured reserve and Keenan Allen (IND) is listed Out, which leaves Laquon Treadwell (IND) soaking up a full share of outside snaps. That is a thin room, and Slayton is the one name in it with a track record of winning downfield on the perimeter.
The number is 13.5 yards. One catch gets there. Against a Washington secondary that has been one of the softest in the league through three weeks, the question is not whether Slayton is targeted but how early, and a receiver who has to be accounted for on the outside gets his look. Before you enter it, see where the sportsbooks hang the receiving numbers for this game on the live NFL receiving yards odds screen.
Croskey-Merritt Leaves When Washington Trails
Croskey-Merritt is averaging 3.0 yards a carry through three games, 47 carries for 142 yards, with three catches for five yards in that span. The receiving half of a rushing-plus-receiving line is close to zero for him, so the whole 72.5 has to come on the ground, and he has not cleared 63 rushing yards in any game this season.
Volume is the counterargument. Rachaad White (WSH) is Out, so there is a chance the carries bump. Two things cut against it. Austin Ekeler (WSH) is back on the roster, and the pass-catching snaps are his the moment Washington needs them. And Jayden Daniels (WSH) is listed Out, which makes the script where Washington plays from behind the likelier one. In that script Croskey-Merritt is on the sideline, and a lower on 72.5 is the play.
Watch the full breakdown of both plays:
How Keep Your Million Works
Keep Your Million is Underdog's free-to-play survival game. Every eligible customer, all new users and most existing users, receives a virtual $1,000,000 pot in bonus funds, and the job is to protect it across up to 20 questions.
- Pick a question. Example: will Patrick Mahomes throw for Higher or Lower than 275 passing yards?
- Split your million. Drag a slider to divide the pot between Higher and Lower: 100% on one side, 50/50, or anything in between. All the money has to go somewhere.
- Lock it in. Once you submit before the game starts, it is locked and cannot be changed.
- Keep your winnings. When the game settles, keep whatever you put on the winning side. That amount becomes your pot for the next question.
- Run it back. Make a pick for up to 20 questions. Survive all 20 and cash out whatever is left in Underdog bonus funds. Hit zero and you are out.
The Deposit Match
Underdog Fantasy is also running a first-deposit match. The two lists below are the match tiers, not the map of where Underdog is available, and the size of the match depends on which tier your state sits in. In the full-product tier (AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, DE, DC, FL, GA, IL, IN, KS, KY, MA, MD, MI, MN, MS, MO, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WV, WI, WY) the match is 50% of your first deposit up to $1,000 in bonus funds. In the predictions-only tier (CT, HI, ID, IA, LA, ME, MT, WA) the match is 25% of your first deposit up to $250 in bonus funds, and Underdog has said that percentage and launch may still change.
New users can sign up with code OS1 and get a 50% first-deposit match up to $1,000 in bonus funds (25% up to $250 in CT, HI, ID, IA, LA, ME, MT and WA).
Use code OS1 and get up to $1,000 in bonus cash
Trading involves risk, including total loss on positions. Content is promotional and not a recommendation to trade. Promotion issued by affiliate. Terms apply. Underdog is available in 49 of 50 U.S. states. Concerned with your play? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
