The Week 3 opener heads to the currently not-so-frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, where the Packers unpack after two weeks on the road and the Falcons pack up Cooper Rush in favor of Michael Penix Jr., who's finally healthy enough to play (for now). Fun fact I'm not sure means a lot: Green Bay has won 13 straight home openers, tied with the 1976-88 Dolphins for the longest run in league history. And drawing the struggling Falcons surely helps them in their path to set the record, but this is a touchdown article. We want touchdowns. History can chill.
I've got two coming your way tonight: both half unit deployments, both strong cases for being underpriced on Kalshi where the best price for each currently lives. Let's have a Thursday.
Play #1: Bijan Robinson, 56¢ (-137 Effective)
Let's start with Bijan's price, because it's a decent bit of the argument. BetMGM has Bijan at -165, DraftKings at -160, FanDuel at -155, and Caesars at -154. Yet Kalshi's 56¢ works out to -137 after the fee, which is what I like to call 'useful.'
The usage is the rest of the story. Bijan has a monstrous 48 touches in two games (37 carries and 11 catches), and heck: he's the only Falcon to reach the end zone so far this season. And I want to trust Drake London with Penix behind center in an improved situation (nobody still trusts Kyle Pitts). But I think discretion is the better part of valor on both (shoutout Shakespeare).
And this is fun: per NFL.com, Cooper Rush threw just five of his 22 Week 1 attempts more than five yards downfield, so defenses have had every reason to crowd the line against that. Hopefully Penix brings the deep ball back (1,982 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions before last November's injury), and a safety who has to respect a vertical throw is a safety who isn't creeping into the box.
Don't sleep on the fact that the Green Bay defensive front is short on bodies, too. Warren Brinson is out, Javon Hargrave and Anthony Campbell are questionable and Micah Parsons is still on the PUP list. No surprise the Packers have already allowed three rushing touchdowns in two games, two of them from the 3-yard line or closer at Minnesota. Brian Robinson Jr. is the variable: he practiced in full this week, and a preseason NBC Sports report tabbed him for potential goal-line work this season, though two games haven't shown it either way because the Falcons have played exactly ZERO red zone plays through two games.
Unfathomable stuff. Positive variance gets it done for us with Bijan on Thursday night.
Play #2: Tucker Kraft, 30¢ (+218 Effective)
Kraft tore his ACL against Carolina last November, and Green Bay brought him back on a pitch count in the opener. Matt LaFleur set the limit at 40 snaps, Kraft played 45 of 68, and LaFleur's explanation, per SI, was "Somehow, John Dunn got it done to get five more snaps out of him." Then they showed no regard for Kraft's humanity and played him a monstrous 58-of-59 snaps against the Jets, sitting out one play for rest (LOL). Ten months after a major injury playing 98% of snaps in Week 2? That's absurd, and it means the pitch count is obviously gone.
Oh, and don't sleep on the fact that Green Bay can't run it in whatsoever. The Packers haven't scored a single rushing touchdown through two weeks: Josh Jacobs remains on the Commissioner's Exempt List, and the backfield is a three-way committee of Chris Brooks, MarShawn Lloyd and Kaleb Johnson (LOL). Let that sink in: all four Green Bay offensive touchdowns have been receptions. Jayden Reed got hurt last week and is out Thursday. Complementary tight end Jonnu Smith's snap share fell to 22% against the Jets. Luke Musgrave is on the PUP list and something named a Thomas Yassmin who reportedly is a tight end is on injured reserve, so there's so much work for Kraft in store here on Thursday.
Did I mention Atlanta has a very specific problem? The Falcons have allowed four receiving touchdowns this season, and tight ends have been three of them: Pat Freiermuth in the opener, then Darren Waller doing a dance twice during Sunday's 34-3 carving at the hands of Carolina. Tight ends have already racked up 12 catches, 114 yards and three scores to the position in two weeks. Kraft's own Week 2 was quiet (two catches, 15 yards and a fumble), but before last November's injury? Six touchdowns in eight games. And that was with a functional run game.
FanDuel has Kraft at +200, the best number at a book. Kalshi's 30¢ is +218 after the fee. Again: useful.
How I'd Size It
A half unit deployed by me on each. They sit on opposite sides of the ball, so game script is pretty irrelevant to me, although points above this 43.5 total would be preferred. Bijan is a favorite you're buying at a discount. Kraft is crafty and the guy we really want to see spike a football between the two. If you want to weight it slightly towards Bijan I don't blame you, but I'm happy flat-staking both and calling it a day.
The Fee Math
Always a reminder for the fine folks newer to playing on Kalshi: they charge a taker fee of 7% of price times one-minus-price, rounded to the cent. In plain English, that means for Kraft's 30¢ you're adding on 1.47¢, so you're really paying 31.47¢. On Bijan's 56¢ it's 1.72¢, so 57.72¢, which is close to the most the fee ever takes because it peaks at even money. Kalshi rounds up at settlement, so treat every effective number here as a ceiling and not a floor.
Also, these are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. And just like at a sportsbook, this is a constantly moving market, so all prices are subject to change. Make sure to do your due diligence check actives/inactives 90 minutes before kickoff, make sure you're getting the best price possible, and enjoy the show.
The Official Card Once More
Both contracts sit on the same Kalshi event on the Falcons at Packers game tab. Prices are accurate as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, 11:12 PM ET, with the effective column properly accounting for the taker fee:
| Contract | Price | After fee | Effective | Best book | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson Yes 1+ TD | 56¢ | 57.72¢ | -137 | -154 (Caesars) | ATL at GB |
| Tucker Kraft Yes 1+ TD | 30¢ | 31.47¢ | +218 | +200 (FanDuel) | ATL at GB |
Bijan's contract has traded about 14,800 with roughly 14,400 currently open; Kraft's has traded about 27,300 with a robust 27,200 still open. Both prices could be moving before kickoff, so stay alert.
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Final Thoughts
Thursday comes down to a Falcons offense that could ball out with even semi-functional quarterback play and a Packers offense that has only been capable of scoring through the air so far this season. And wouldn't you know it: Kalshi is yet again better than the books to deploy both touchdowns I want to see during the festivities.
Useful.
— Lindy
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