The Quick Answer: Two Underdog NFL picks today for Patriots-Seahawks: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Lower 15 rushing attempts and Jadarian Price (SEA) Higher 9.75 fantasy points, a correlated pair built on the same game script. The reasoning for each, the video, and the current Underdog offer with code OS1 are below.
Wednesday night's Week 1 game sends the New England Patriots into Lumen Field as road underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks, a rematch of Super Bowl LX, which Seattle won 29-13 in February. Kickoff is 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. Eric Lindquist's two Underdog Fantasy plays for the game are built on a single idea: the Patriots throw more than their backfield injuries suggest, and Seattle's rookie back touches the ball more than his number suggests. Both picks are below, as called on the show, followed by the current Underdog offer for new users.
The Picks: Patriots At Seahawks, Wednesday, September 9
| Player | Stat | Line | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | Rushing attempts | 15 | Lower |
| Jadarian Price (SEA) | Fantasy points | 9.75 | Higher |
Rhamondre Stevenson Lower 15 Rushing Attempts
With TreVeyon Henderson (NE) ruled out with an ankle injury on the final Week 1 report, this sets up as a lot of Stevenson in the Patriots backfield. Corey Kiner (NE), the third-stringer who is the No. 2 back tonight only because Henderson is out, mixes in from time to time, and he has barely played in the NFL, so the objection is live: if nobody spells Stevenson, he can reach 15 on volume alone. That read is why the number is up at 15, and it is the surface of the bet, not the bet itself.
The case for the Lower is everything around the backfield. The read on the show is that the injuries in Seattle's secondary, with Ty Okada (SEA) out and Nick Emmanwori (SEA) questionable, push Seattle's personnel into bigger boxes, which makes the Patriots more apt to throw to their new wide receiver additions, A.J. Brown (NE) and Romeo Doubs (NE). New England is also without center Ben Brown (NE), which does designed runs no favors. Add in the Patriots being road dogs in one of the loudest road environments in football, and the game script tilts toward the pass. Stevenson can be the lead back all night and still finish at 14 carries or fewer. That is the shape of this play, and it sets up nicely as an advantageous Lower. Before you enter it, check where the sportsbooks hang Stevenson's attempts on OddsShopper's live odds screen; the live NFL player prop odds page puts every major book's number side by side, the same odds comparison the NFL Underdog picks strategy guide walks through.
Jadarian Price Higher 9.75 Fantasy Points
The rookie out of Notre Dame, the 32nd pick in the draft, tops Seattle's Week 1 depth chart in a committee with George Holani (SEA) and Emanuel Wilson (SEA), and he should get a healthy dose of action. Two roles matter most: he should be in line for goal-line work, and he should see a heavy share of the late carries if Seattle plays this one from ahead. Carries themselves score nothing in a fantasy-points line; yards, catches and touchdowns do. That is why the goal-line role is the pick and the late carries are the fallback: one score does most of the work toward 9.75, and without one he needs the yardage that a fourth quarter of clock-killing carries brings. If the scoring format is new to you, player props betting explained covers how a line like 9.75 gets built and settled.
Both of those routes run through the same game script as the first pick, and Seattle is favored at home, so that script is live. After shorting Stevenson's carries, backing the home back on the other side is a natural correlation play. A Seahawks lead means fewer Patriots rushing attempts and more Price touches late, so the two legs win together more often than a pair of unrelated props would. The flip side is just as real: if New England controls the game, both legs can lose together, so this is a higher-variance pairing, not a hedge.
Watch the full breakdown of both plays:
How Keep Your Million Works
Keep Your Million is Underdog's free-to-play survival game. Every eligible customer, all new users and most existing users, receives a virtual $1,000,000 pot in bonus funds, and the job is to protect it across up to 20 questions.
- Pick a question. Example: will Patrick Mahomes throw for Higher or Lower than 275 passing yards?
- Split your million. Drag a slider to divide the pot between Higher and Lower: 100% on one side, 50/50, or anything in between. All the money has to go somewhere.
- Lock it in. Once you submit before the game starts, it is locked and cannot be changed.
- Keep your winnings. When the game settles, keep whatever you put on the winning side. That amount becomes your pot for the next question.
- Run it back. Make a pick for up to 20 questions. Survive all 20 and cash out whatever is left in Underdog bonus funds. Hit zero and you are out.
More on this: MLB Hit Props Today · MLB Picks Hub: Today's Live Boards and Series · MLB Strikeout Props Today · MLB Total Bases Props Today · NFL Picks Hub: Week 1 Odds, Win Totals, Props
The Deposit Match
Underdog Fantasy is also running a first-deposit match, and the size depends on your state. In states with an Underdog product (AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, DE, DC, FL, GA, IL, IN, KS, KY, MA, MD, MI, MN, MS, MO, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WV, WI, WY) the match is 50% of your first deposit up to $1,000 in bonus funds. In the predictions-only states (CT, HI, ID, IA, LA, ME, MT, WA) the match is 25% of your first deposit up to $250 in bonus funds, and Underdog has said that percentage and launch may still change.
New users can sign up with code OS1 and get a 50% first-deposit match up to $1,000 in bonus funds (25% up to $250 in CT, HI, ID, IA, LA, ME, MT and WA).
Use code OS1 and get up to $1,000 in bonus cash
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