Another day, another Jackson Merrill baseball relocated — 414 feet on Sunday, ticket cashed. And since we've been on a run that deserves receipts, here they are: every single play from the day I started turning Lindy's Long Balls into article form for your daily consumption. Haters beware: the results have been fire.
| Date | Play | Price | Effective | Result | Risked | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/17 | Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 16¢ | +490 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.23u |
| 8/17 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 21¢ | +351 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 8/17 | Mookie Betts (LAD) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Jackson Merrill (SD) | 13¢ | +625 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/18 | Mike Trout (LAA) | 19¢ | +398 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/18 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 14¢ | +573 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.43u |
| 8/18 | Corbin Carroll (AZ) | 9¢ | +944 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 14¢ | +573 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Bryce Harper (PHI) | 19¢ | +398 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/19 | Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 15¢ | +529 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/20 | Pete Alonso (BAL) | 21¢ | +351 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/20 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 17¢ | +456 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.14u |
| 8/21 | Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 16¢ | +490 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/21 | Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | 17¢ | +456 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/21 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 21¢ | +351 | ✅ | 0.25u | +0.88u |
| 8/22 | Corbin Carroll (AZ) | 16¢ | +490 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/22 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 19¢ | +398 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.00u |
| 8/23 | Jo Adell (CLE) | 23¢ | +313 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| 8/23 | Jackson Merrill (SD) | 18¢ | +425 | ✅ | 0.25u | +1.06u |
| 8/23 | Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | 13¢ | +625 | ❌ | 0.25u | −0.25u |
| TOTAL | 8-for-21 | 5.25u | +5.43u (103% ROI) |
Eight winners out of twenty-one swings — a 38% hit rate — and the bankroll GREW by more than it risked. That's the entire thesis of this column in one table: you don't need to be right half the time when every ticket is bought at the right price. My, that's a pretty chart. Let's add three more rows to it for this manic Monday, shall we?
Junior Caminero: 1+ HR (20¢, Effective +373) — Rays @ Tigers
Housekeeping first: the Lindy Discord got this at 17 cents (+456) before the market woke up — that's where the best numbers live, every day, and today was another exhibit. The board has since bid him to 20¢, and I'm STILL in at +373, because the two pillars of this play didn't move an inch.
Pillar one: Comerica Park, of all places, is playing UP for right-handed power this season — completely out of character for a building with a pitcher's-park reputation. Last year's Statcast data already rated it a top-five homer park (114 factor), and this year's handed factors tilt righty (1.04 for RHB against 0.97 for lefties). The big yard grew teeth, and nobody updated their priors.
Pillar two: Caminero is a wrecking ball with 35 homers, a 13.2% barrel rate, a .256 ISO and a 93-mph average exit velocity, hitting .290 with a .508 slug against lefties — and Framber Valdez is the lefty. Full transparency on Framber, because we read the fine print here: his HR/FB is actually at a career LOW this year, so I won't sell you that angle. The real cracks are elsewhere — a 43.7% hard-hit rate allowed (12th percentile), a career-low strikeout rate, a 5.14 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP since late June, and a sinker (45% usage) that's getting hammered to a .366 wOBA with a 51.7% hard-hit rate. He's a ground-ball artist whose contact quality is quietly rotting, facing a slugger who barrels mistakes into different area codes. Fine print item two: Caminero's been quiet for a week and a half, and the cool 55° Detroit night won't help carry. That's what the 20 cents is for. BetMGM says +310; Kalshi says +373.
Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1+ HR (21¢, Effective +351) — Cubs @ Diamondbacks
Six PCA tickets last week. FOUR cashes. On this page alone, the four PCA plays returned +2.57 units on a single unit risked — a 257% ROI on one man's swing — and he punctuated the week with No. 33 in Sunday's 19-2 demolition, hitting .375 with five bombs over his last seven days. To quote the great philosophers of The Hangover: you never walk away from the table when you're on a heater.
But we don't bet the heater, we bet the matchup, and Merrill Kelly is practically holding the door open: 26 homers allowed this season, 18 of them to left-handed bats, who are slugging .532 with a .277 expected ISO against him. His barrel rate allowed has jumped from 9.3% to 12.6% year over year, and the pitch-mix autopsy is grim — his four-seam is getting hit to a .467 wOBA and his cutter to .476. When your two most-used offerings are batting practice for lefties and the best lefty launch profile in the league walks in (12.1% barrels, 21.6° average launch, 24 of 33 homers off righties), the roof being closed is the only mercy Chase Field can offer. Honesty note: this park is roughly neutral for lefty power — not my favorite venue for the bet — but DraftKings has him +340 and Kalshi's +351 keeps the edge on our side of the counter. Deal him in again.
Byron Buxton: 1+ HR (28¢, Effective +257) — Twins @ Athletics
My pick to round out the card, and yes, that's the priciest ticket this column has ever bought — so let me show my work, fine print first. Buxton's split against lefties is his soft side (21 of his 25 homers came off righties), and 28 cents is chalk-flavored chalk. I wanted this game badly enough to pay it anyway, and here's why.
Jeffrey Springs has allowed 29 home runs — the most in the American League — at 2.30 per nine, with a homer in 13 of his last 14 starts. That is not a slump, that is a subscription service. The damage profile is exactly backwards for a lefty: 21 of the 29 have been hit by right-handed batters, his four-seamer (44% usage) is getting slugged .534 and his slider .627. Buxton is the best right-handed contact in this lineup by a mile — a 16.3% barrel rate, 20.6° average launch angle, .262 ISO, 25 bombs — standing in Sutter Health Park, which quietly rates as a top-six homer yard (112 factor) in its second big-league season. Elite barrels, elite launch, historically leaky lefty, launching-pad park, calm 60° night. Fanatics' best book price is +240; Kalshi's +257 wins even at the chalk end of the menu.
(Portfolio note: I also grabbed Kody Clemens at +475 at a traditional book last night — Kalshi doesn't list him, and today's best has already shortened to +450. Springs against ANY Twins bat with pull-side thump is the whole thesis. The A's, meanwhile, have four of their best power bats on the IL, which is why the other side of this game stays unbet.)
The Fee Math (Quick Version)
Kalshi's taker fee runs roughly 7% × price × (1 − price) — about a penny at these prices — so the true cost sits just above the sticker. Fee-adjusted, today's card:
- Junior Caminero At 20¢ → +373 effective (BetMGM: +310; Discord caught 17¢/+456)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong At 21¢ → +351 effective (DraftKings: +340)
- Byron Buxton At 28¢ → +257 effective (Fanatics: +240)
Kalshi sweeps the board again, top to bottom.
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Thin Air On Repeat, A Flat Fastball Problem
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Breaking My Own Heart On The South Side
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: A Two-Piece Thursday: Kalshi Odds
- Kalshi Home Run Picks Today: Crow-Armstrong, Harper (Aug 19)
- LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Kauffman's Back, Eating Crow (In A Good Way), And A Dodger At Altitude (Aug. 17)
Final Thoughts
A big righty aimed at a ballpark that changed personalities, the hottest lefty swing alive against the pitcher most eager to feed it, and a premium price paid — with receipts shown — for the loudest contact in a launching pad against the AL's most generous arm.
The table up top is the sermon today, so read it again: 8-for-21 made money. Thirteen losses. THIRTEEN. Anyone selling you a week without red rows is selling you fiction — the green rows just have to be bought at better prices than the reds cost, and that's the entire job. Tonight's three will probably produce more ❌ than ✅ too. The math has made peace with that; make sure you have.
Quarter units, three tickets, same as every single row above. The ledger doesn't lie, and it doesn't take requests either.
— Lindy
