Sunday's 1 p.m. ET window is where this whole card lives, and it's a window full of comings and goings. Jalen Coker is back from a quad injury for Carolina's trip to Philadelphia, where Tanner McKee is starting in place of Jalen Hurts. Caleb Williams is trying to return from a hamstring in Chicago, and New England is short two receivers with Mack Hollins on injured reserve and A.J. Brown unlikely to go. All three plays here are built around how those moves reshape the touchdown math.
Once again, I ran every one of them through Stokastic's Ask the Sims, which plays each game 10,000 times, snap by snap, with a final score and a full box score for every one. All three came back as value against Kalshi's price, and a couple of names I liked earlier in the week didn't survive the check.
The Sims also hand you the game script. New England wins 7,347 of its 10,000 games against the Jets, Carolina takes roughly six in 10 against an Eagles team starting McKee, and Bears-Falcons is close to a coin flip, which matters for every play below.
Play #1: Chicago's Red-Zone Favorite, 33¢ (+189 Effective)
Luther Burden III leads the Bears with 35 targets, 22% of the team's looks, and nobody in Chicago gets thrown to more near the goal line: he has eight red-zone targets, two more than Colston Loveland, and three of his looks have come in the end zone. He's caught one touchdown for all that, back in Week 3, and he's done it with Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent taking the snaps for three of Chicago's five games.
That could change Sunday. Williams practiced in full Thursday and Friday for the first time since getting hurt in Week 2, and Ben Johnson says he's on track to play, though he's still officially questionable. Chicago is a 1.5-point road favorite in Atlanta with a 51.5 total, which has the Bears implied for about 26.5 points. Atlanta's pass defense ranks 12th by EPA per dropback and has allowed nine passing touchdowns.
Ask the Sims has Burden scoring in 41.0% of its 10,000 games (4,105 of them, about +144), against a Kalshi price that costs 34.5¢ once you add the fee, a 6.6¢ edge. Split it by result and he scores in 45.3% of the games Chicago wins and 36.7% of the ones Atlanta wins, so he's live even if the Bears lose.
The Sims like him even more for two touchdowns, 8.7% against 6.4¢ on Kalshi, about 36¢ of edge per dollar on a ticket that cashes roughly once in a dozen tries. His best pairing is Williams throwing three-plus touchdowns, which hits 50% more often than the prices imply, so this whole case leans on Williams suiting up. If he doesn't, Bagent starts again and I'd take another look before kickoff.
Kalshi's 33¢ works out to +189 after the fee, the best number out there, with DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM all at +180 and Caesars at +173.
Play #2: Carolina's Deep Threat Is Back, 26¢ (+266 Effective)
Jalen Coker missed Carolina's last game with a quad injury, and with the bye in Week 5, he's had two weeks to get right before Sunday's trip to Philadelphia. He's on track to play, and when he's been out there, he's made it count: 18 catches on 22 targets for 222 yards, 0.58 EPA per target and a 55% success rate, including a two-touchdown opener when he caught nine balls for 138 yards.
He's been a red-zone regular, too, with five red-zone targets in his three games, one fewer than Tetairoa McMillan has in four. Carolina is a three-point road favorite with a 39 total, and it draws an Eagles pass defense that ranks 25th by EPA per dropback, while Philadelphia hands the ball to McKee on the other side.
Ask the Sims has Coker scoring in 32.1% of its games (3,213 of 10,000, about +211), against a Kalshi price of 27.3¢ with the fee, a 4.8¢ edge that works out to about $18 of value per $100. Carolina wins 6,202 of the 10,000 sims, and Coker scores in 36.4% of those, against 25.0% when Philadelphia wins. His best pairing is Bryce Young throwing two-plus touchdowns, which hits 53% more often than the prices imply, 22.7¢ in the sims against an expected Kalshi quote of 16.2¢.
The one thing I'd watch is the quad. It's his first game back, and if Carolina eases him in, his snap count could look more like the 36% he played in Week 3 than the 84% from the opener. That's why he gets a quarter unit.
DraftKings has Coker at +275, the same number I grabbed, Caesars and FanDuel are at +260, and Kalshi's 26¢ works out to +266 after the fee, so take the DraftKings number if you have it.
Play #3: New England's Next Man Up, 12¢ (+685 Effective)
Mack Hollins is on injured reserve, A.J. Brown is questionable with an ankle injury that Ian Rapoport says gives him a very low chance of playing, and the Patriots have been handing Hollins' snaps to Efton Chism III. His snap share jumped from 45% in Week 4 to 76% against the Raiders, when he caught five of his six targets for 69 yards, and he caught a 23-yard touchdown the week before.
New England is a 7.5-point home favorite over the Jets with a 43.5 total, implied for about 25.5 points, and Drake Maye has spread his touchdowns around, with Romeo Doubs and DeMario Douglas catching two apiece and Hunter Henry, Kyle Williams and Chism one each. The Jets' pass defense ranks 11th by EPA per dropback and has allowed six passing touchdowns.
Ask the Sims has Chism scoring in 24.2% of its games (2,419 of 10,000, about +313), against a Kalshi price of 12.7¢ with the fee, an 11.5¢ edge that works out to roughly $90 of value per $100, the biggest gap on this card. In the 7,347 games New England wins, he scores 25.9% of the time, and the Sims price a Chism touchdown plus a Patriots win at 19.0¢ against an expected Kalshi quote of 9.6¢.
A gap that big makes me as nervous as it makes me excited. Kalshi had Chism at 18¢ on Friday night, and he's slid to 12¢ with more than 67,000 contracts traded since. My guess is the market is bracing for Brown to play, which would push Chism back down the depth chart. If Brown is active Sunday, the case gets a lot thinner, so this one is a quarter unit too.
Kalshi's 12¢ works out to +685 after the fee, the best number out there and the one I took, with FanDuel at +650 and DraftKings and Caesars at +600.
Three Combos the Sims Like
None of these are on the official card, but if you like building Kalshi combos, here's what the Sims would put together from these same legs. The Sims column is how often the combo hit across the 10,000 games, and the expected Kalshi column is the Sims' estimate of what Kalshi's market makers will quote for it:
| Combo | Sims | Expected Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Coker TD + Bryce Young 2+ passing TDs | 22.7¢ | 16.2¢ |
| Chism TD + Patriots win | 19.0¢ | 9.6¢ |
| Burden TD + Caleb Williams 3+ passing TDs | 14.5¢ | 12.8¢ |
Chism also pairs well with Drake Maye throwing two-plus touchdowns, 17.7¢ in the sims against an expected 9.6¢. Combo quotes move around more than single contracts do, so check the live price in Kalshi's builder before you buy, and pass if it's above the Sims number.
The Fee Math
Always a reminder for the fine folks newer to playing on Kalshi: they charge a taker fee of 7% of price times one-minus-price, rounded to the cent. In plain English, for Burden's 33¢ you're adding on 1.55¢, so you're really paying 34.55¢. On Coker's 26¢ it's 1.35¢, so 27.35¢, and on Chism's 12¢ it's 0.74¢, so 12.74¢. Kalshi rounds up at settlement, so treat every effective number here as a ceiling and not a floor.
Also, these are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. And just like at a sportsbook, this is a constantly moving market, so all prices are subject to change. Check actives and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff (especially Williams, Coker and Brown), make sure you're getting the best price possible, and enjoy the show.
The Official Card
All three contracts sit on their game's touchdown tab on Kalshi. Prices are accurate as of Saturday, October 17, 2026, 2:40 PM ET. The effective column accounts for the taker fee, and the Sims column is the scoring probability from Ask the Sims:
| Contract | Price | After fee | Effective | Sims | Best book | Game | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III Yes 1+ TD | 33¢ | 34.55¢ | +189 | 41.0% | +180 (DraftKings) | CHI at ATL | 0.5u |
| Jalen Coker Yes 1+ TD | 26¢ | 27.35¢ | +266 | 32.1% | +275 (DraftKings) | CAR at PHI | 0.25u |
| Efton Chism III Yes 1+ TD | 12¢ | 12.74¢ | +685 | 24.2% | +650 (FanDuel) | NYJ at NE | 0.25u |
Chism's contract has traded about 67,600 so far and Coker's about 10,400, with tens of thousands sitting at the quoted price on both. Burden's is the quiet one at about 1,000 traded, though there are still about 7,100 contracts available at 33¢.
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Final Thoughts
A red-zone favorite who might be getting his quarterback back, a receiver returning against a backup-led Eagles team, and a receiver stepping into an empty depth chart. Burden's ticket misses about two times out of three, Coker's nearly three times out of four and Chism's nearly nine times out of 10, so size them like it.
As always: no chasing, and no hero sizing on a Sunday. Trade smart, trade responsibly, and enjoy the slate.
— Lindy
More on this: Sunday Night Football Picks: The Market Is Pricing Last Week · Texans vs Jaguars Kalshi Picks: Houston Throws In London · Thursday Night Football Picks: Surtain Out, Darnold Throws · Texans vs Jaguars Anytime TD Picks: Fade Woody Marks · Seahawks vs Broncos Anytime TD Picks: Seven In Five Games
