The Quick Answer
Two Underdog NFL picks for Bills at Rams on Monday Night Football, October 12: Josh Allen (BUF) Higher 20.5 completions and Kyren Williams (LAR) Higher 15.15 fantasy points. The full case for each, the video and the current Underdog offer with code OS1 are below.
My two Underdog Fantasy plays for Monday night come from the same place: the Bills walk into SoFi Stadium as 3.5-point underdogs with a 54.5 total on the game, and that script hands one quarterback more throws and one running back more work than their season lines show.
The Picks: Bills At Rams, Monday Night Football, October 12
| Player | Stat | Line | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | Completions | 20.5 | Higher |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | Fantasy points | 15.15 | Higher |
Josh Allen Higher 20.5 Completions
Allen has played himself into the MVP conversation through four weeks, but he is coming off a lackluster 29-26 loss to the Patriots in Week 4, and now he heads under a roof, where he has been a monster for most of his career. Start with the spread. The Bills are 3.5-point dogs to the Rams at DraftKings, and with a 54.5 total on the board, throwing the ball all over the lot is most likely on the menu.
The history is against this line: Allen has cleared 20.5 once in four games. He is 79 of 119 on the year, a 66.4% completion rate, and the game-by-game splits read 20, 20, 16 and 23 completions, so he landed exactly on 20 twice. Attempts are the whole bet. Buffalo has thrown it 29, 31, 26 and 33 times while winning three of four and running it 110 times behind a 5.1-yard average, so the offense has not needed to chuck it. The one game where it did, the 33-attempt loss to New England, is the one game Allen went over. At a 66% clip he needs 31 or 32 throws to get there, and a Bills team chasing from behind in a 54.5-total game gets him there.
The Rams have been stingy against opposing pass games, and the raw numbers are ugly for this play: opposing quarterbacks are 68 of 127 against them, a 53.5% completion rate, 145.5 net passing yards a game, and Jalen Hurts went 12 of 27 for 68 net yards in Philadelphia last week. At that clip a quarterback would need 39 throws to get to 21, so the question is whether those numbers travel, and they do not. The Eagles and the Broncos run two conservative offenses, and those wonky early game scripts flattered the Rams, while the one offense that actually attacked them, the 49ers in Week 1, went 25 of 34. Allen has not completed fewer than 61.5% of his throws in any game this year, with three of four games at 64.5% or better, so his floor is nowhere near 53.5%, and a quarterback at that accuracy who has to keep throwing is a different test than anything the Rams have faced. Give me the Higher on completions.
Before you lock a pick'em line, check what the sportsbooks make of the same number: OddsShopper's live odds screen, the live NFL passing prop odds board lines every book up side by side, and the NFL Underdog picks strategy guide covers how to de-vig the same prop at the books and check Underdog's 20.5 against the no-vig number before you take a side.
Kyren Williams Higher 15.15 Fantasy Points
The Bills' rush defense has been astoundingly better than it was a year ago, allowing 4.0 yards a carry through four games, and that could play directly into Williams' hands because of what he gives Matthew Stafford (LAR) in the passing game relative to Blake Corum (LAR). The usage trend already says it. Williams has gone 11, 12, 15 and 16 carries week over week while Corum has gone 10, 12, six and five, and in Philadelphia last week Williams drew 13 targets and caught 10 of them for 67 yards on top of 16 carries for 80 and two scores. His goal-line role has stayed untouched even with Corum's production on the ground: three rushing touchdowns and a receiving score for Williams this season, none for Corum.
The schedule matters here too. The Rams play Monday night and then turn around on a short week to face the lowly Cardinals on Sunday afternoon at SoFi, and in my mind that is the perfect time to deploy more Corum. That could mean a massive workload for Williams in the big game tonight. On Underdog's half-point-per-reception scoring, by my math he has put up 14.0, 14.7, 18.8 and 31.7 fantasy points in order, so he is 2-2 against this number, both misses came within 1.15 points, and both came before the target share jumped. Put it all together and I believe this fantasy score sits at least a fantasy point and a half too low.
Fantasy-point lines bundle three props into one, so the live NFL fantasy points odds board is the odds comparison for how the books price Williams' pieces, and player props betting explained covers how a combined line is graded if the format is new to you.
Watch the full breakdown of both plays:
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The Deposit Match
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