The Quick Answer
Two Underdog NFL picks today for Buccaneers-Cowboys on Thursday Night Football: Bucky Irving (TB) Higher 49.5 rushing yards and Jake Ferguson (DAL) Higher 5.15 fantasy points. The full case for each, the video and the current Underdog offer with code OS1 are below.
Both of my Underdog Fantasy plays for the NFC game at AT&T Stadium, 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday between the 2-2 Cowboys and the 0-4 Buccaneers, come from the same read: a Dallas defense that cannot stop anyone, so the one Tampa Bay player who has to touch the ball gets fed, and the Dallas tight end who owns his position room gets the targets that follow a lead. Monday's card split, for the record: the Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) Lower 15.65 fantasy points cashed when he threw for 223 yards and one touchdown, roughly 13 points on the standard pick'em table, and the Kendre Miller (NO) Higher 23.5 rushing yards died at six carries for nine yards.
The Picks: Buccaneers-Cowboys Thursday Night Football, October 8
| Player | Stat | Line | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving (TB) | Rushing yards | 49.5 | Higher |
| Jake Ferguson (DAL) | Fantasy points | 5.15 | Higher |
Bucky Irving Higher 49.5 Rushing Yards
The Cowboys offense has scored 37, 31 and 34 in its last three games, and the defensive side has been the problem: 28.0 points a game allowed, the most yards per play in the league at 6.36 through four weeks per the ESPN box scores, and 150.2 rushing yards a game, second-most in the NFL. On the video I added the second-most explosive plays allowed in the league, and the 6.36 is the box-score version of that.
I get the risk. Jalon Daniels (TB), an undrafted rookie, makes his second start with Baker Mayfield (TB) out, and his first one went 19-of-27 for 148 yards with a touchdown, two interceptions and eight carries for 55 yards. Irving was not targeted once in that game, Daniels took off eight times for 55 yards instead of checking down, and a two-score deficit could make the whole night wonky. Here is the other side of it, and it already happened: Green Bay beat Tampa Bay with Daniels starting, Irving caught nothing, and he still ran 16 times for 61 yards, past this number, in the same shape Thursday projects. Irving is the Buccaneers' best offensive skill position player, period, and if Tampa Bay wants any chance to win this game, he gets fed. He has cleared this number in two of four games, 89 yards on 17 carries against Cleveland and 61 on 16 against Green Bay, and the two misses were close or explained: 46 on 15 carries against Minnesota, and 45 on eight carries in the opener, a game in which he also caught seven passes for 48 yards. He needs about 12 carries at his 4.3-yard average to get there, and he is averaging 14 a game; the two unders came on 15 and eight carries, and the eight-carry game was the one where he caught seven passes instead. All four defenses he has faced allow fewer rushing yards a game than the 150.2 Dallas gives up. At 49.5, against a front that has allowed 150 rushing yards a game, 50-plus is too good to pass up.
OddsShopper's live odds screen lines up every book's version of this market when it is posted: the live NFL rushing yards odds page puts the sportsbooks side by side, the same odds comparison the NFL Underdog picks strategy guide walks through before you enter a card.
Jake Ferguson Higher 5.15 Fantasy Points
This one is pretty straightforward. The Cowboys' tight end room runs through Ferguson: 15 targets through four weeks against four for Brevyn Spann-Ford (DAL) and two for Luke Schoonmaker (DAL). The Buccaneers defense is a pass funnel, allowing 78.5 rushing yards a game, third-fewest in the league, so opponents throw, and the tight end has been the beneficiary in three of four games: Mike Gesicki (CIN) went 5-for-78 with a touchdown on seven targets in Week 1, Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) went 5-for-54 on six targets in Week 2 with Blake Whiteheart (CLE) adding a touchdown, and Tucker Kraft (GB) went 6-for-42 with a touchdown on seven targets last Sunday. The exception was Minnesota, where T.J. Hockenson (MIN) caught two of four targets for 11 yards.
The math is the reason this is a pretty easy click. Four catches for 35 yards or three catches for 40 eclipses 5.15 on the standard pick'em table, independent of any red zone role, and Ferguson has that role too: two touchdowns against Washington and another against Baltimore. One of his two clearing games needed the score and one did not: 4-for-43 against Washington was a 6.3-point night before either of his two touchdowns, and 3-for-23 against Baltimore only got there on the score. The two misses were 2-for-6 against the Giants and 3-for-11 against Houston, a game CeeDee Lamb (DAL) swallowed with 21 targets. The volume game is the one I am buying. Dallas has 266, 267 and 324 net passing yards over the last three weeks with Dak Prescott (DAL) throwing, and Tampa Bay's run defense pushes him toward the same thing. The base rate is the honest caveat: Ferguson has reached four catches once in four games on 3.75 targets a night, so this needs Dallas's volume to lift his share, which is what three straight weeks past 265 passing yards does, or the red-zone look that produced three scores in Weeks 2 and 3. The scripts only partly line up with the Irving play: a Dallas blowout helps Ferguson and kills Irving, a Tampa Bay lead does the reverse, and the window where both hit is Dallas ahead by a score and throwing while Tampa Bay keeps handing it off.
If the market is new to you, player props betting explained covers how a fantasy-points line is set and graded, and the live NFL fantasy points odds board shows where the books hang the same number once it is posted.
Watch the full breakdown of both plays:
How Keep Your Million Works
Keep Your Million is Underdog's free-to-play survival game. Every eligible customer, all new users and most existing users, receives a virtual $1,000,000 pot in bonus funds, and the job is to protect it across up to 20 questions.
- Pick a question. Example: will Patrick Mahomes throw for Higher or Lower than 275 passing yards?
- Split your million. Drag a slider to divide the pot between Higher and Lower: 100% on one side, 50/50, or anything in between. All the money has to go somewhere.
- Lock it in. Once you submit before the game starts, it is locked and cannot be changed.
- Keep your winnings. When the game settles, keep whatever you put on the winning side. That amount becomes your pot for the next question.
- Run it back. Make a pick for up to 20 questions. Survive all 20 and cash out whatever is left in Underdog bonus funds. Hit zero and you are out.
The Deposit Match
Underdog Fantasy is also running a first-deposit match. The two lists below are the match tiers, not the map of where Underdog is available, and the size of the match depends on which tier your state sits in. The full-product tier is AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, DE, DC, FL, GA, IL, IN, KS, KY, MA, MD, MI, MN, MS, MO, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WV, WI and WY. The predictions-only tier is CT, HI, ID, IA, LA, ME, MT and WA, and Underdog has said that tier's percentage and launch may still change.
New users in the full-product states get a 50% first-deposit match up to $1,000 in bonus funds with code OS1. In the predictions-only states (CT, HI, ID, IA, LA, ME, MT and WA), the match is 25% of your first deposit up to $250 in bonus funds.
Use code OS1 and get up to $1,000 in bonus cash
Trading involves risk, including total loss on positions. Content is promotional and not a recommendation to trade. Promotion issued by affiliate. Terms apply. Underdog is available in 49 of 50 U.S. states. Concerned with your play? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
