Updated September 4, 2026 · 11 min read · by Eric Lindquist
Draw day put Carlos Alcaraz in the one quarter with both of the summer's Masters champions, and this page called that a punishment. Five days of tennis have removed one of those champions from the bracket entirely, left the other waiting in a quarter-final the crowd has stopped pricing, taken seven of the top 16 seeds out of the tournament, and moved his Kalshi contract from a quarter of the board to nearly half of it. The seven AI models that priced this board on August 28 have not been asked again; their numbers stay below as the record, marked against what actually happened.
What changed (Sep 9, 2:03 AM ET): Kalshi's lead price on this board moved 56¢ → 42¢ (−14¢) since our last read. The panel's verdict below was written before this move and stands as published until the refresh lands.
The Quick Answer
Kalshi's traders now price Carlos Alcaraz at 45.5 cents to win the 2026 US Open men's singles title, up from 26.5 when this board was first scored, with Alexander Zverev at 20.5 and no one else in double figures but Taylor Fritz. Seven of the top 16 seeds, including Novak Djokovic, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alex de Minaur, are already out. Alcaraz plays Yibing Wu on Arthur Ashe at 1 p.m. ET Friday; Zverev, who has needed ten sets to win two matches, plays Alejandro Tabilo on Saturday. The live board, the day-by-day prices, every exit, and the panel's August numbers graded line by line are below.
Prices on this page are as of September 4, 2026, pulled from Kalshi at 7:43 a.m. ET on Friday before the third round resumed.
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These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange for event contracts; contracts are 18+ and availability varies by state. New to event contracts? Start with how to bet sports on Kalshi.
The Board
Kalshi's board has grown from 35 contracts to 48 since draw day, and only ten of them carry a real bid; the Kalshi column is the midpoint between bid and ask, the August column is the same midpoint the day the panel scored the board, and the panel column is the middle number of the seven models, frozen since August 28.
| Player | Seed | Quarter | Kalshi now | Aug. 28 read | Panel blend (Aug. 28) | Third round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 2 | Q4 | 45.5¢ | 26.5¢ | 14.2% | Yibing Wu, Fri. 1 p.m. |
| Alexander Zverev | 1 | Q1 | 20.5¢ | 22.5¢ | 15.0% | Alejandro Tabilo, Sat. |
| Taylor Fritz | 9 | Q2 | 10.5¢ | 6.5¢ | 4.5% | Francisco Cerundolo, Sat. |
| Ben Shelton | 8 | Q4 | 8.5¢ | 5.5¢ | 7.0% | Denis Shapovalov, Fri. 8:30 p.m. |
| Daniil Medvedev | 7 | Q3 | 5.5¢ | 2.5¢ | 2.5% | Arthur Rinderknech, Fri. 12:30 p.m. |
| Frances Tiafoe | 11 | Q3 | 2.5¢ | 2.5¢ | 3.0% | Valentin Vacherot, Fri. 7 p.m. |
| Jakub Mensik | 17 | Q2 | 2.5¢ | 2.5¢ | 1.3% | Learner Tien, Sat. |
| Learner Tien | 14 | Q2 | 2.5¢ | 1.5¢ | 1.4% | Jakub Mensik, Sat. |
| Tommy Paul | 20 | Q4 | 1.5¢ | 1.5¢ | 1.5% | Alexander Bublik, Fri. 12:30 p.m. |
| Flavio Cobolli | 5 | Q2 | 1.5¢ | 2.5¢ | 5.0% | Alexander Blockx, Sat. |
Add every active midpoint together and the board comes to 112.5 cents, so the exchange's built-in margin is 12.5 cents. Strip that out and Alcaraz is closer to a 40 percent chance, Zverev to 18 percent. His 45.5-cent contract turns $100 into roughly $220 if it pays, and nothing if it does not.
The row that tells you what kind of week it has been is Flavio Cobolli's. He is the fifth seed, the man who took Zverev to five sets in the French Open final, and he has won two matches here, both from a set down and one from two sets down. The contract has gone from 2.5 cents to 1.5 anyway, because the crowd is no longer pricing a bracket. It is pricing Alcaraz, and everything else is being squeezed to make room.
Everything beyond those ten rows is dust. Stefanos Tsitsipas, Karen Khachanov, Francisco Cerundolo, Alexander Bublik, Valentin Vacherot and Alex Michelsen are all still in the draw and all quoted at zero bid, one cent ask. So are the 12 surviving players Kalshi listed at 1 a.m. ET Friday, from Wu and Shapovalov to Dane Sweeny and Botic van de Zandschulp; a 13th listing, Quentin Halys, was still on court against Zverev at the time and lost. Four men in the third round have no contract at all: Michael Zheng, Zizou Bergs, Arthur Rinderknech and Jiri Lehecka. And four contracts remain open on men who were never in the draw, Jack Draper, Sebastian Korda, Holger Rune and Gabriel Diallo, which can only settle at zero.
More live boards from the same panel: the US Open women's board, where Aryna Sabalenka still leads at 23.5¢ ahead of Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek, and our Thursday-night read of both title boards against a fresh nine-model run, which is where the panel's current number on Alcaraz lives.
What Five Days Did To The Prices
Each column is the close of that day's Eastern-time trading session on Kalshi. A dash means the contract had already settled at zero.
| Player | Aug. 28 | Aug. 29 | Aug. 30 | Aug. 31 | Sept. 1 | Sept. 2 | Sept. 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 27 | 27 | 29 | 35 | 37 | 40 | 47 |
| Alexander Zverev | 23 | 22 | 24 | 24 | 15 | 22 | 19 |
| Taylor Fritz | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| Ben Shelton | 6 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 8 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| Novak Djokovic | 11 | 10 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Fils | 8 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Rafael Jodar | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 1 | — |
Two rows carry the story. Two things hit the same session on Monday, August 31: Alcaraz won his opener in straight sets, and Arthur Fils lost his. The contract closed six cents higher, at 35, with Shelton up four on the Fils half of that news. This page had written, three days earlier, that if Fils went out early "Alcaraz's number should rise on the same day." It did, though his own first match gave the crowd a second reason.
Zverev's row has the strangest print on the board: a close of 15 on Tuesday, September 1. He was on court against Lorenzo Sonego when that session closed, in a match he would not win until the early hours of Wednesday, and the price came all the way back to 22 once he had. Thursday took it down again: the contract closed at 19 while he was still playing Quentin Halys, and it was 20 bid, 21 ask by Friday morning after he had won.
Alcaraz's Thursday deserves its own sentence. The contract traded as high as 54 cents during Thursday's session and closed at 47. By Friday morning it was 45 bid, 46 ask. The crowd's high-water mark came on a day he was not even playing.
Seven Top-16 Seeds, Seven Exits
Kalshi settles a contract at zero the moment its player cannot win, and this week it has done so in batches: eight contracts at once at 12:35 a.m. ET Friday, two of them top-16 seeds. Here is how each one left, with the score.
No. 4 Novak Djokovic, first round, Sunday night. Mariano Navone of Argentina beat him 7-6(5), 5-7, 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 in four hours and 36 minutes. It was Djokovic's first opening-round loss at a major since the 2006 Australian Open, and it ended a run of 78 straight first-round wins. He was visibly unwell, and took a medical timeout before the fifth set. Kalshi closed his contract three minutes before midnight and settled it two minutes after.
No. 10 Arthur Fils, first round, Monday. Stefanos Tsitsipas beat the Cincinnati champion 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-1, 6-4. This was the man the panel had paired with Shelton as the reason Alcaraz's quarter was overpriced; the collision never happened.
No. 12 Rafael Jodar, first round, Wednesday. Bu Yunchaokete, a lucky loser from qualifying, beat the Spanish teenager. The score was 6-2, 6-1, 6-1, and it was the first time a lucky loser has put out a top-15 seed at a major in the Open Era. Jodar was the name this page said the market liked more than the panel did, at 5.5 cents against 3.0 percent. Bu settled that argument in a rout: Jodar won four games.
No. 16 Brandon Nakashima, second round, Wednesday. Alex Michelsen beat him 6-3, 6-4, 6-4. Nakashima was one of three names tied behind Auger-Aliassime and Cobolli as the panel's largest gaps above the market.
No. 3 Felix Auger-Aliassime, second round, Thursday afternoon. Karen Khachanov won 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-2, 6-2. Auger-Aliassime said afterward that he began feeling unwell in the second set: "I just couldn't feel well and was dizzy and seeing spots and couldn't recover." He finished with 47 unforced errors, and he had been the panel's single largest positive gap on the whole board.
No. 13 Lorenzo Musetti, second round, Thursday evening. Dane Sweeny, an Australian wildcard ranked No. 123, beat him 3-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 for his first completed main-draw win at a major.
No. 6 Alex de Minaur, second round, Thursday. Botic van de Zandschulp, ranked 70th, beat him 6-4, 7-5, 6-2. De Minaur was the second seed in Zverev's quarter and the panel's projected quarter-final opponent for him.
Andrey Rublev, the 23rd seed, went out in the second round to Daniel Merida, and Ignacio Buse, seeded 32nd, to Benjamin Bonzi.
The Quarter That Was Supposed To Eat Itself
On draw day the whole argument was that quarter four held too much of the tournament. Adjust the prices for the exchange's margin and here is what each quarter holds now, next to what it held then.
| Quarter | Still in it | Kalshi now (adjusted) | Kalshi Aug. 28 (adjusted) | Panel, Aug. 28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Zverev, Tabilo, Darderi, Sweeny, Zheng, Gea, Bergs, van de Zandschulp | 20.4% | 27.5% | 24.0% |
| Q2 | Fritz, Cobolli, Tien, Mensik, Cerundolo, Blockx, Khachanov, Bonzi | 16.9% | 15.7% | 19.4% |
| Q3 | Medvedev, Tiafoe, Vacherot, Michelsen, Merida, Etcheverry, Navone, Rinderknech | 9.3% | 16.2% | 18.0% |
| Q4 | Alcaraz, Shelton, Paul, Bublik, Tsitsipas, Shapovalov, Lehecka, Wu | 51.1% | 38.0% | 31.8% |
The rows do not sum to 100 because the four contracts on men outside the draw, plus Halys's, still carry a cent of ask each. Each quarter row adds every contract in it, not only the names with a real bid.
The panel's structural call has been overtaken by the bracket rather than refuted by it. The models argued that Shelton and Fils could not both reach the quarter-final and that the market had not discounted the collision. Fils lost before the collision could occur, so quarter four went from the most crowded section of the draw to the one with the clearest favorite in it. Its share of the title, on Kalshi's prices, has gone from 38 percent to 51.
The quarter that emptied is the third. Djokovic's exit on the first night of the main draw took more than half of its adjusted probability with him, and Nakashima and Rublev followed. What is left is Medvedev, whose contract has more than doubled to 5.5 cents, Tiafoe, and a group of five men the board prices at a cent. The bottom half of the draw now carries 60 percent of the title on Kalshi's board and the top half 37.
Alexander Zverev: Ten Sets, Two Wins, 2:15 A.M.
The models' case for Zverev in August was that best-of-five rewards his floor: a man who steals two sets from him still has to win a third. Two matches in, that sentence has been tested more literally than anyone intended.
He beat Lorenzo Sonego 6-4, 3-6, 6-7(9), 7-5, 6-4 in four hours and 53 minutes, finishing in the early hours of Wednesday. He then beat Quentin Halys 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-7(3), 6-3 in four hours and 33 minutes, finishing at 2:15 a.m. Friday. He is the first top seed in the Open Era to open a major with back-to-back five-setters. "I've been here for another four and a half hours. 2:15 a.m again," he said afterward. He hit 29 aces and converted five of 20 break chances.
The draw has kept its side of the bargain. De Minaur, Jodar and Musetti, the three seeds the panel had between him and a semi-final, are all out. His third-round opponent is 25th seed Alejandro Tabilo on Saturday, and Kalshi's match contract makes Zverev an 84-to-85-cent favorite for it. What the crowd has priced instead is the mileage: his title contract is two cents lower than on draw day while his path has never looked easier.
Zverev at 15 is the path play: 2026 Roland Garros champion and Wimbledon finalist, and his quarter tops out at de Minaur/Jodar — his Paul and Griekspoor losses are why he is not clear of the field. — Claude Fable, August 28
The path play is now a path with Tabilo on it, nobody the crowd prices above a cent behind him, and a player who has spent nine and a half hours on court to reach the third round.
Carlos Alcaraz: Two Wins, One Set Dropped, Wu At 1 P.M.
The whole August argument against Alcaraz was a wrist that had not been tested since April. He beat Roman Safiullin 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 in the first round and Jaime Faria 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 in the second, and the forehand that was the concern during his recovery has held. "I know once I step on the court, I've just got to go for it every time," he said after the Faria match. "I've got to feel normal. I have to hit like I was hitting before the injury."
Friday's test is Yibing Wu on Arthur Ashe Stadium, second match of the day session, scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Wu is ranked No. 113 and has not dropped a set in two rounds, beating Adam Walton and James Duckworth. Kalshi's match contract prices Alcaraz at 92 bid, 93 ask, with Wu at 8 to 9 cents, and Wu's side of that book has been the busier one by face value.
The quarter beyond Wu is where the repricing lives. Alcaraz's own section also holds Bublik against Paul, and the winner is his likely fourth-round opponent. The other section of the quarter is Shelton's: he plays Denis Shapovalov in the Friday night session, priced around 77 cents to win it, with Lehecka against Tsitsipas alongside. A quarter-final against Shelton, the Montreal champion, is still the hardest match the bracket can offer Alcaraz before a final, and it is the one the crowd has decided not to worry about.
I keep Alcaraz co-favourite at 15 because Section 8 buys him three rounds to find rhythm and his ceiling is the highest here, but the Q4 quarterfinal against the Shelton/Fils survivor is the hardest QF on the bracket. — Claude Fable, August 28
The seat was half right in a way that has cost it. Two rounds in, the rhythm has come faster than it allowed for. The Shelton-or-Fils survivor is Shelton, and the market has decided that is a different question from Shelton-or-Fils.
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Every Seat's Number, Marked To Market
This is the August 28 record, untouched, with one column added on the right. Seven seats priced all 35 contracts then listed, plus a bucket for a champion from outside the list, from a fetched data card that carried no prices; each read the other six boards anonymously and revised once. The market column is the August 28 midpoint with the exchange's margin stripped out. The last column is where each contract stands on Friday morning.
| Player | Market Aug. 28, margin stripped | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | ChatGPT | Gemini | Grok | Kimi | Blend | Now (Sept. 4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev | 19.7% | 15.0 | 14.5 | 14.0 | 14.5 | 16.1 | 15.5 | 15.0 | 15.0% | 20.5¢ |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 23.1% | 15.0 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 14.2 | 12.7 | 14.5 | 16.0 | 14.2% | 45.5¢ |
| Novak Djokovic | 9.2% | 8.0 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 7.5% | Out, R1 (Navone) |
| Arthur Fils | 6.6% | 7.0 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0% | Out, R1 (Tsitsipas) |
| Ben Shelton | 4.8% | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 7.0% | 8.5¢ |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | 3.1% | 6.5 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 6.3% | Out, R2 (Khachanov) |
| Flavio Cobolli | 2.2% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0% | 1.5¢ |
| Taylor Fritz | 5.7% | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5% | 10.5¢ |
| Alex De Minaur | 1.3% | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5% | Out, R2 (van de Zandschulp) |
| Brandon Nakashima | 1.3% | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5% | Out, R2 (Michelsen) |
| Frances Tiafoe | 2.2% | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0% | 2.5¢ |
| Rafael Jodar | 4.8% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.0% | Out, R1 (Bu) |
| Daniil Medvedev | 2.2% | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5% | 5.5¢ |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 1.3% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7% | Out, R2 (Sweeny) |
| Tommy Paul | 1.3% | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.5% | 1.5¢ |
| Learner Tien | 1.3% | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4% | 2.5¢ |
| Jakub Mensik | 2.2% | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3% | 2.5¢ |
| Alexander Bublik | 0.4% | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0% | 0/1¢ |
| Andrey Rublev | 0.4% | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9% | Out, R2 (Merida) |
| Casper Ruud | 0.4% | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8% | Out |
| Cameron Norrie | 0.4% | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5% | Out |
| Francisco Cerundolo | 0.4% | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4% | 0/1¢ |
| Karen Khachanov | 0.4% | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3% | 0/1¢ |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0.4% | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3% | 0/1¢ |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 0.4% | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3% | Out, R2 (Shelton) |
| Valentin Vacherot | 0.4% | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3% | 0/1¢ |
| Alex Michelsen | 0.4% | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3% | 0/1¢ |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | 0.4% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1% | Out, R2 (Cerundolo) |
| Dino Prizmic | 0.4% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1% | Out, R2 (Paul) |
| Jack Draper | 0.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | Not in draw |
| Sebastian Korda | 0.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | Not in draw |
| Gabriel Diallo | 0.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | Not in draw |
| Holger Rune | 0.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | Not in draw |
| Jannik Sinner | 0.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | Withdrew |
| Joao Fonseca | 0.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | Withdrew |
| The Field (Any Man With No Contract Listed) | — | 6.4 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 6.8% | — |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements, and the running record for each one is recomputed daily on the full graded scoreboard. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice; models are frequently wrong, and the market price reflects real traders' money.
Here is the honest score after five days. Add up the blend on every contract that has already settled at zero, leaving aside the two withdrawals, and 35.2 percent of the panel's board is dead. Do the same for the market's margin-stripped prices and 30.0 percent of the crowd's board is dead. Both wrote off roughly a third of their book in a week; the panel wrote off a little more, and the reason is specific. Its largest gap above the market was Auger-Aliassime, and he is out. Behind him came Cobolli, then a three-way tie between Shelton, de Minaur and Nakashima, and two of those three are out as well. Of the five names the panel had furthest above the market, the two still playing are Shelton, whom the crowd has re-rated from 5.5 cents to 8.5, and Cobolli, whom it has marked down to 1.5. The market's dead weight came mostly from Djokovic and Jodar, both of whom the panel had sat below, plus Fils, where the two were within half a point of each other.
The panel's biggest gap in the other direction was Alcaraz, and that one has gone against it by a wider margin every day. The seats have not re-priced this board since August 28, and this page does not rescale their old numbers to pretend they have. A separate nine-seat run on Thursday night, on the sibling page linked above, put Alcaraz at 24.4 percent against a market then at 42.5. The disagreement is the same shape it was on draw day; only the size has changed.
The field row is the one to watch now. Four of the 32 men still playing, Zheng, Bergs, Rinderknech and Lehecka, have no contract, and Lehecka is the 18th seed with Tsitsipas in front of him and Shelton beyond that. The 6.8 percent the seats put on an unlisted champion is not dead yet.
What The Panel Said Would Change Its Mind, And What Did
Every seat closed its August analysis on the same four items. Here is how each has resolved.
- A credible read on Alcaraz's wrist. The panel said this would decide the price, and the crowd treated it as decided inside 24 hours of his first match. What nobody wrote down was that the answer would arrive alongside the second trigger on the same night.
- Shelton or Fils losing early. Named as the pressure valve, with the direction stated in advance. Fils went out, the valve opened, and the page's call on direction was right; the size of the move it set off was not something any seat put a number on.
- Zverev dropping a set or two in week one. He has dropped four. The models' case was that best-of-five rewards his floor; the evidence so far is that it also charges for it, and the crowd has billed him for the hours rather than credited him for the path.
- Another withdrawal. None from the seeded group. What the board got instead was seven seeds beaten on court, which settles the same way and moved more money.
The item the panel weighted most from each other's reasoning, the section-seven collision between Shelton and Fils, was the one the tournament resolved first. Claude Sonnet had called it "the structural point I weighted most from the other forecasters' reasoning." Gemini's largest revision, taking Alcaraz from 4.0 percent to 12.7, turned out to be the seat moving furthest in the right direction, and still not far enough.
What Settles Next
The third round finishes Saturday, the fourth round runs Sunday and Monday, and the quarter-finals are Tuesday and Wednesday. The men's semi-finals are Friday, September 11, and the final is Sunday, September 13, when the champion takes $5.5 million from a record $108 million compensation pool and decides KXATP-26USO; Kalshi's listed expiration runs to September 28, but the contracts settle once the champion is known. Every exit from here releases roughly its own midpoint into a board where Alcaraz already holds 40 percent adjusted, which is why a Shelton or Fritz loss would move his price more than any win of his own. And the only path to the panel's 6.8 percent field row paying out runs through the four third-round men with no contract, of whom Lehecka, with Tsitsipas and then Shelton in front of him, is the one with a seed. If you want the week's picks graded rather than priced, our free expert picks page is the place.
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The Bottom Line
Draw day made this board a story about a crowded quarter. Five days later it is a story about an empty one. The champions the panel expected to tax Alcaraz are gone or waiting for him in a quarter-final the crowd has stopped pricing, seven of the top 16 seeds are out, and the one man priced as a real rival has spent nine and a half hours on court to win two matches. The panel's August numbers sit above as written, a third of them already settled at zero, and its largest disagreement with the market has grown from 12 cents on draw day to 18 by Thursday night, when the fresh nine-seat run priced Alcaraz at 24.4 percent. Four of the 32 men still playing have no contract at all, so the 6.8 percent the seats parked on an unlisted champion is the one line on the board nobody has been able to grade. The tournament has nine days left to say whether 45 cents was the right price for a man who has played two matches since April, or whether the seats that refused to pay 26 were early rather than wrong.
Prices and model numbers are as of Friday, September 4, 2026, 7:43 a.m. ET.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Carlos Alcaraz photo by Barcex, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
