TL;DR
The panel's top of the board: Jannik Sinner (39%), Carlos Alcaraz (22%), Alexander Zverev (11%). Every verdict below was made price-blind from live fetched data, and every one gets graded against the real settlement on our scoreboard.
Our first tennis board arrives a month before the US Open with the crowd already halfway decided: Sinner 50 cents, Alcaraz 23, daylight third. The models were handed the current ATP rankings and asked the structural question hard courts always pose — whether a two-man era leaves any room at all for the field, and whether 50 cents on one player in a 128-man draw is conviction or complacency.
What The Models Were Given
Each model saw the complete current ATP top 20 (points included) fetched at generation time. The tournament runs late August into early September, so this board grades by mid-September. Eight model seats were asked on every outcome; where a seat's verdict did not return, its table cell shows an em dash and the blend averages the seats that answered.
Where The Machines Split From The Money
Jannik Sinner: market 50¢, AI blend 39% (11 points below the crowd). ChatGPT (GPT-5.5): "Sinner is the clear rankings leader and elite on hard courts, but a best-of-five major still leaves substantial draw, injury, and rival risk."
Alexander Zverev: market 9¢, AI blend 11% (2 points above the crowd). Claude Sonnet: "Zverev is #2 ranked, strong hard-court player, but Sinner/Alcaraz favored in large field."
Felix Auger-Aliassime: market 2¢, AI blend 3% (1 points above the crowd). Gemini 3.1 Pro: "Despite his strong ranking, Auger-Aliassime is a longshot against the dominant top three players who consistently win best-of-five hard-court majors."
Daniil Medvedev: market 3¢, AI blend 4% (1 points above the crowd). DeepSeek V4: "Former champion and top-10 hard-courter, but Sinner and Alcaraz are dominant favorites on hard courts."
The Board
| Outcome | Kalshi | AI blend | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | 50¢ | 39% | 31% | 38% | 40% | 38% | 38% | 45% | 42% | 40% |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 23¢ | 22% | — | 25% | 27% | 20% | 21% | 22% | 20% | 22% |
| Alexander Zverev | 9¢ | 11% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 15% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 14% |
| Daniil Medvedev | 3¢ | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 6% |
| Novak Djokovic | 5¢ | 4% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% |
| Ben Shelton | 1¢ | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | 2¢ | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Taylor Fritz | 3¢ | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| Alex de Minaur | 1¢ | 2% | 2% | 1.5% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2% |
| Andrey Rublev | 1¢ | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 3% | 1.5% | 2% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| Casper Ruud | 1¢ | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Jack Draper | 1¢ | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 1¢ | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Frances Tiafoe | 1¢ | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Jakub Mensik | 1¢ | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 2% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Holger Rune | 1¢ | 1.0% | 0.6% | 2% | 0.5% | 2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Flavio Cobolli | 1¢ | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Learner Tien | 1¢ | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| Alexander Bublik | 1¢ | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Joao Fonseca | 1¢ | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Arthur Fils | 1¢ | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Tommy Paul | 1¢ | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1¢ | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Sebastian Korda | 1¢ | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Karen Khachanov | — | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| …plus 8 more names, all under 2% blended — every name was scored; the table shows the top of the field |
Model estimates generated July 26, 2026, price-blind. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
Related Verdicts
FAQ
Why do the model percentages differ from the Kalshi price?
The models never see the price. When they disagree with the crowd, one side is wrong, and we grade every verdict against real settlements on our scoreboard.
Are model verdicts betting advice?
No. Model verdicts are model estimates, not betting or financial advice. Treat them as one input among many and make your own decisions.
What data did the models see?
Each model saw the complete current ATP top 20 (points included) fetched at generation time. The tournament runs late August into early September, so this board grades by mid-September.
