Updated August 29, 2026 · by Ben Rasa
Who has withdrawn from the 2026 US Open? Twenty players, 11 men and 9 women, headlined by world No. 1 Jannik Sinner (knee), Joao Fonseca, Holger Rune and Emma Raducanu. Main-draw play runs August 30 to September 13, 2026. On Kalshi's winner board as of August 29, Carlos Alcaraz was the men's favorite at 27-28 cents ahead of Alexander Zverev at 22-23 and Novak Djokovic at 10-11, and Aryna Sabalenka topped the women's board at 23-24 over Coco Gauff. The full list with every replacement is below.
When Jannik Sinner pulled out of the 2026 US Open eight days ago, I wrote that the draw would be the last big repricing event before the first ball. The draw is out now, the main draw starts Sunday, and the tennis market has spent the intervening week answering a different question than the one it faced on withdrawal day. Back then it was "how do you split up the favorite's 35 points?" Now it is "who is actually playing this tournament, and what is the field worth without him?" The withdrawal list has grown from a headline to 20 names. And the strangest answer on the board is the new favorite himself: Carlos Alcaraz inherited Sinner's crown, and the market is charging less for him today than it did when Sinner was still in the field. I'll show you that row, and what finally happened to the Ben Shelton price that refused to move last week, further down.
The Quick Answer
Twenty players have withdrawn from the 2026 US Open singles draws, 11 men and 9 women, headlined by world No. 1 Jannik Sinner (knee), Joao Fonseca, Holger Rune, and 2021 champion Emma Raducanu. Main draw play begins Sunday, August 30 and runs through Sunday, September 13, and on Kalshi's winner market as of August 29, Carlos Alcaraz is the men's favorite at 27-28 cents, ahead of Alexander Zverev at 22-23 and Novak Djokovic at 10-11, while Aryna Sabalenka tops the women's board at 23-24 over a surging Coco Gauff. The full 20-name list with every replacement, the repriced board, and the reason the new favorite is somehow cheaper than the old board are all below.
Stay ahead of the markets.
Daily insights and expert picks on Kalshi, Polymarket, and what's moving markets.
Free forever. Unsubscribe anytime.
Sinner Is Out, And The Market Called It Final
The short version of what started all this: Sinner has not hit a competitive ball since winning Wimbledon in July for his fifth Grand Slam title. The right knee that cost him Toronto and Cincinnati took the last major of the season too, in his own words: "We have been back on court in Monte Carlo over the last couple of days and have realised that I still need more time to recover from my right knee issue."
If you were holding out hope for a late reversal, Kalshi's "will Jannik Sinner play in the US Open" contract trades at 0 cents bid, 1 cent ask, on about 77,000 lifetime contracts and without a single contract changing hands in the last 24 hours. That market has done its job; there is no comeback priced anywhere. What kept moving was everything around it, because Sinner turned out to be the first name on a withdrawal list that kept growing right up until the draw ceremony.
The Full Withdrawal List: 20 Names, Every Replacement
Here is who is out of the singles draws, per the running list at Tennis365 confirmed through the August 27 draw, with the player who took each vacated spot. Rankings are as listed at the time of withdrawal.
| Out (Men) | Rank | Replaced by |
|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | No. 1 | Carlos Taberner |
| Joao Fonseca | No. 26 | Lucky loser |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | No. 27 | Alexei Popyrin |
| Ugo Humbert | No. 30 | TBC |
| Ethan Quinn | No. 45 | Martin Damm |
| Sebastian Korda | No. 64 | Aleksandar Vukic |
| Holger Rune | No. 80 | Facundo Diaz Acosta |
| Gabriel Diallo | No. 92 | Wu Yibing |
| Emilio Nava | No. 100 | Benjamin Bonzi |
| Patrick Kypson | No. 116 | Stan Wawrinka |
| Jack Draper | No. 141 | Lucky loser |
| Out (Women) | Rank | Replaced by |
|---|---|---|
| Victoria Mboko | No. 15 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew |
| Hailey Baptiste | No. 34 | Kaitlin Quevedo |
| Jaqueline Cristian | No. 41 | Darja Vidmanova |
| Emma Raducanu | No. 59 | Anna Blinkova |
| Irina-Camelia Begu | No. 82 (PR) | Elsa Jacquemot |
| Jil Teichmann | No. 89 (PR) | Julia Grabher |
| Ajla Tomljanovic | No. 93 | Ella Seidel |
| Laura Siegemund | No. 98 | Nadia Podoroska |
| Varvara Gracheva | No. 106 | Anastasia Zakharova |
The row worth pausing on is Kypson's. The American had been out since Wimbledon, and when he gave back his main-draw wildcard, the USTA handed it to Stan Wawrinka, the 2016 champion here. So the withdrawal list did not just subtract names; it put a former US Open winner back in the field. Fonseca's exit stings more for the draw's depth: the Brazilian, who withdrew Wednesday with an abdominal injury, was the world No. 26, though the winner board already had him down on the 1-cent shelf before he pulled out. The latest addition is Ugo Humbert, the former world No. 13, who pulled out with a back injury in draw week. On the women's side, the volume is what stands out, nine players gone, with Raducanu's lower-leg stress fracture removing the 2021 champion.
Beyond the formal withdrawal list, the attrition the market had already priced runs deeper: Sinner and Rune sit at the bottom of the winner board alongside names like Draper, whose lingering arm trouble had him under a cent before he made it official.
Who Is Actually In
This is the part of the week that removed doubt rather than adding it. The draw came out Thursday, August 27, and the two biggest names left standing are confirmed in it. Alcaraz, seeded No. 2, opens against Roman Safiullin, his first singles match since April after a wrist injury took his entire spring and summer. Kalshi's "will Carlos Alcaraz play in the US Open" contract trades at 96-97 cents on more than 270,000 lifetime contracts, with about 33,000 of those in the last 24 hours; the market treats his return as settled and is now just waiting for the walk-on.
Sinner's withdrawal also did something no result could have: it made Alexander Zverev the No. 1 seed. He opens against Lorenzo Sonego. Novak Djokovic, seeded fourth, landed in Alcaraz's half of the draw, and that placement is doing real work on the prices, as you're about to see. The projected men's quarterfinals by seeding: Zverev against Alex de Minaur and Felix Auger-Aliassime against Flavio Cobolli in the top half; Alcaraz against Shelton and Djokovic against Daniil Medvedev in the bottom.
The Board, Eight Days Later
The withdrawal-day version of this article compared Kalshi's Thursday board against Polymarket's Friday prices, two venues, directional only. Now we can do it properly: Kalshi against Kalshi, August 20 (the last board with Sinner in it) against August 29, with the draw out. Today's prices are bid-ask ranges on the men's winner market, as of 4:14 p.m. UTC on August 29, with the August 20 column in cents from that day's board; the market has traded about 9.68 million lifetime contracts, roughly 312,000 of them in the last 24 hours.
| Player | Aug 29 (draw out) | Aug 20 (Sinner in) |
|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | out | 35 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 27-28¢ | 29 |
| Alexander Zverev | 22-23¢ | 14 |
| Novak Djokovic | 10-11¢ | 7 |
| Arthur Fils | 7-8¢ | 2 |
| Taylor Fritz | 6-7¢ | 2 |
| Rafael Jodar | 5-6¢ | 4 |
| Ben Shelton | 5-6¢ | 7 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | 3-4¢ | 2 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 2-3¢ | — |
| Jakub Mensik | 2-3¢ | 2 |
Read the second column top to bottom and the redistribution is nothing like what withdrawal day suggested. Sinner's 35 points went overwhelmingly to the middle of the board: Zverev picked up 8 to 9 cents, Arthur Fils picked up 5 to 6, Fritz 4 to 5, Djokovic 3 to 4. And the man who nominally inherited the tournament picked up less than nothing; he gave a cent or two back.
The Favorite Who Got Cheaper
That is the row I promised. On August 20, with the world No. 1 healthy enough to be priced at 35 cents, Alcaraz cost 29. Today, with Sinner gone and the title his to lose, Alcaraz costs 27-28. On Polymarket's board the day the news broke, he touched 36 percent; different venue, so treat that number as directional, but the direction is the point. The market's first instinct was to crown him, and its second, slower instinct, once the draw landed, was to take most of the coronation back.
The draw explains the discount. Djokovic fell into Alcaraz's half, which means the two best hard-court resumes left in the field can meet before the final. Shelton is the projected quarterfinal opponent. Safiullin, the opener, upset Andrey Rublev and Fonseca at Wimbledon and is nobody's idea of a soft first rounder for a man playing his first competitive match in four months. Every piece of that is a subtraction, and the sum of the subtractions is larger than the value of Sinner's exit. Last week I wrote that bettors taking the favorite were paying a healthy-Alcaraz price for a question-mark Alcaraz. The market has since done some of that discounting for you, and the honest read is that 27-28 cents is a fairer price for the same question mark, not a signal the question got answered.
Zverev is the cleaner story and the board shows it. The No. 1 seed by elevation, a French Open title already banked in June, the softer half of the draw, and a 22-23 cent price that has risen every time the field around him thinned. The gap between him and Alcaraz was 15 cents on August 20. It is 5 cents on draw eve.
Shelton Finally Moved, And Fils Passed Fritz
On withdrawal day, the most interesting fact on the board was Shelton sitting at 7 cents, unmoved by the biggest exit in tennis. That price has now moved, down to 5-6, and the timing tells you exactly why: the draw put him in Alcaraz's quarter. Traders who believed in his ceiling all along still do; they just now have to price seven matches that include the defending champion in round five. The market held its opinion of Shelton for a week and then repriced his path in an afternoon. That is the cleanest illustration you will get of the difference between a player's quality and a player's draw.
The dark-horse reshuffle above him is just as pointed. Fils at 7-8 cents has quietly passed Fritz at 6-7 to become the market's top pick outside the big three. Fritz still holds most of his post-withdrawal gains, home Slam, 2024 runner-up here, but a week of trading decided the young Frenchman deserves the higher price. And Rafael Jodar, who vanished from Polymarket's listed prices on withdrawal day, is back on Kalshi's board at 5-6 cents, level with Shelton.
The Women's Board Moved Too
No Sinner-sized bomb hit the women's draw, but eight days repriced it anyway. Sabalenka, the reigning champion and No. 1 seed, has drifted from 27 cents on August 20 to 23-24 now, and the buyer on the other side of that drift is Coco Gauff, up from 9 cents to 15-16, the biggest gain anywhere on the women's board. Iga Swiatek holds at 14-15, while Elena Rybakina has collapsed from 11 cents to 4-5, falling behind Jessica Pegula (7-8) and Naomi Osaka (6-7). The women's market has traded about 1.29 million lifetime contracts, and the projected quarterfinals by seeding include Gauff against Mirra Andreeva, herself priced at 5-6 cents. Sabalenka opens against Camila Osorio.
How To Read This Board On Draw Eve
The mechanics have not changed since last week: a 27-28-cent Alcaraz contract pays a dollar if he wins the title, roughly +265 at the mid in sportsbook terms, and the cents map one-to-one to implied probability. Alcaraz at 27-28¢ is a 27% to 28% shot in the market's eyes, Zverev sits at 22% to 23%, Djokovic at 10% to 11%, and on the women's side Sabalenka's 23-24¢ reads as a 23% to 24% chance against Gauff's 15% to 16%. Our guide to Kalshi versus sportsbook odds covers when each number is the sharper reference. What has changed is the spread environment. A market digesting news trades wide; a market on the eve of a two-week event with 9.68 million contracts behind it trades tight, and most rows above are now a single cent wide. The bid-ask spread is a smaller tax now than it was in withdrawal week, which matters to anyone comparing quotes across venues before Sunday.
Our pre-withdrawal AI-panel read on this market, priced blind against the crowd, is in the US Open 2026 men's champion market analysis. I said last week it was worth revisiting once the draw landed. The draw has landed; the repricing you just read is the market's verdict, and the last scheduled information event before someone lifts the trophy is now the tennis itself.
OddsShopper's tools do not carry tennis markets, so this is one tournament where we will not pretend to have a comparison surface for you. If you want to see what our experts are backing today across the sports we do cover, the free expert picks hub is the place to look.
More on this: US Open Tennis 2026 Odds: The Alcaraz Price AIs Won't Pay · US Open Exacta Odds: 53 Of The 80 Pairs Are Already Dead · Alex Eala US Open Odds: The Crowd Buys, The Price Won't Move · US Open Mixed Doubles Odds: Who Won, Where The Money Moved · Irish Open Odds 2026: Kalshi Halved McIlroy Before A Shot Was Hit
What Eight Days Of Repricing Really Said
Step back and the week reads as one long second thought. On withdrawal day the market's reflex was to crown Alcaraz and move on; eight days, 19 more withdrawals, and one draw ceremony later, it has settled on something more honest: the tournament did not get simpler, it got emptier, and the prices now charge for that emptiness instead of celebrating it. Twenty names are out. Starting Sunday, the 256 who are in get to argue with the board. Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Jannik Sinner photo by Hameltion, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices on this page are Kalshi's book. If you also trade on Polymarket, code OS4 gets new users a $50 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
