US Open Exacta Odds: 53 Of The 80 Pairs Are Already Dead

Updated September 7, 2026 · 12 min read · by Jake Hari

An exacta on Kalshi is one contract stretched across two tournaments. You name the man who wins the US Open and the woman who wins it, and the contract pays a dollar only if both of them do. Kalshi lists 80 of those pairs. As of Monday morning, 53 of them name a player who has already lost.

The exchange has not taken a single one down, and it is not supposed to. The rule on this board says the market closes only after a winner is declared, so a pair whose woman went out in the third round keeps sitting on the screen with a price beside it. The largest of them, Alexander Zverev with Elina Svitolina, still has 16,441 contracts outstanding. Svitolina lost in the third round to Anna Kalinskaya.

That leaves 27 pairs that can still win, seven of which have an actual buyer behind them. And the one that almost everybody owns is priced differently from the rest of the exchange.

The Quick Answer

Carlos Alcaraz with Aryna Sabalenka is the exacta board's favourite. Buyers are offering 19 cents for it and sellers are asking 20, and a 20-cent contract turns $100 into about $500 if it lands and nothing if it does not. The same outcome priced off Kalshi's own men's and women's title boards, with the exchange's built-in margin taken out and the two numbers multiplied together, comes to 16 cents. Our nine-model panel, which scores both draws without ever seeing a price, puts it at 12. Alcaraz has to beat Ben Shelton in the quarter-final before any of it matters.

Prices are as of September 7, 2026, pulled from Kalshi at 8:49 a.m. ET on Monday with four men's and four women's fourth-round matches still to be played. Every number on this page moves as those matches finish.

These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi event contracts trade on a CFTC-regulated exchange. Contracts are 18+ and availability varies by state.

New to event contracts? Start with how to bet sports on Kalshi.

The Board

Only seven live pairs have a bid behind them, which means only seven have a price you could sell into rather than a number somebody is willing to sell you. Those seven are below. The middle column is the same outcome priced off Kalshi's separate men's and women's title boards: take each player's midpoint, strip out the margin on that board, and multiply. The two draws are different tournaments played by different people, so nothing a man does changes a woman's chances, and multiplying is simply what the arithmetic says. That column is worked out from the full unrounded prices, so squaring it against the rounded whole numbers printed further down this page will leave you a decimal short.

Pair	Kalshi	The two halves multiplied	The panel	Contracts held
Alcaraz-Sabalenka	19¢ bid / 20¢ ask	16.0¢	12.2%	90,940
Alcaraz-Gauff	9¢ bid / 10¢ ask	10.0¢	4.8%	68,245
Alcaraz-Świątek	8¢ bid / 9¢ ask	8.4¢	4.6%	6,445
Alcaraz-Pegula	6¢ bid / 8¢ ask	6.8¢	5.1%	6,783
Zverev-Sabalenka	3¢ bid / 7¢ ask	6.0¢	5.7%	3,059
Zverev-Gauff	1¢ bid / 5¢ ask	3.8¢	2.3%	2,284
Alcaraz-Rybakina	2¢ bid / 4¢ ask	3.5¢	5.1%	6,783

Market	US Open Exacta (Kalshi event KXATPWTA-26USO), 80 mutually exclusive contracts, one per pair of champions. A contract resolves Yes only if both named players win their singles title
Settlement	The listed rule reads: if both named players win the 2026 US Open professional singles tennis tournaments, the market resolves to Yes. A withdrawal resolves No for that participant
Expiry	Expected September 14, 2026 at 1:00 a.m. ET, the night after the men's final. The board closes only once a winner is declared, which is why beaten players are still listed
Depth	About 207,700 contracts outstanding across the 27 live pairs and 41,254 more sitting on pairs that can no longer pay
Snapshot	Prices as of 8:49 a.m. ET, September 7, 2026. Verdicts generated the same morning from nine seats

More live boards from the same panel: the US Open men's title board, where Alcaraz is 57¢ bid / 58¢ ask and Zverev 21¢ / 22¢, and the US Open women's title board, where Sabalenka leads at 29¢ / 30¢ ahead of Coco Gauff at 18¢ / 19¢. Prices fetched September 7, 2026.

On five of the seven pairs the multiplied number sits inside the spread, between what buyers are bidding and what sellers are asking, which is as close to agreement as a market this thin can get. On Alcaraz with Gauff it sits a hundredth of a cent above the ask. On Alcaraz with Sabalenka it sits three cents below the bid and four below the ask, which is a different thing entirely. That pair is also, by a distance, the one holding the most money: 90,940 contracts outstanding, and 24,655 of them changed hands in the 24 hours to Monday morning, close to four times the next-busiest pair. The one everybody is trading is the one carrying the widest gap in cents against its own two halves.

53 Pairs That Cannot Pay

All 80 contracts were written on August 24 and opened the next morning, five days before the main draw began. Not one has been added or removed since. Of the 80, 53 named at least one beaten player when this page was pulled on Monday morning, and that count only climbs. Eight more players go out today.

They are not inert. Zverev with Svitolina holds 16,441 contracts; Novak Djokovic with Gauff holds 6,686, and Djokovic lost in the first round to Mariano Navone. Taylor Fritz with Iga Świątek holds 3,795, and Fritz went out to Francisco Cerúndolo in the third round from two sets up. Several of these still show a one-cent ask, which means the screen will sell you a contract that has no path to a dollar.

The gaps run the other way too. 12 men and 12 women are still alive, which is 144 possible pairings, and Kalshi lists 27 of them. Seven surviving men have no exacta contract at all: Luciano Darderi, Arthur Géa, Botic van de Zandschulp, Karen Khachanov, Francisco Cerúndolo, Alexander Blockx and Alex Michelsen. So do three surviving women: Emma Navarro, Zheng Qinwen and Anastasia Potapova. Michelsen is one win from a semi-final. Navarro reached the semi-finals here in 2024 and plays Jessica Pegula in the quarters.

Add up the listed pairs using Kalshi's own singles prices and they cover about 84% of the ways this tournament can finish. The other 16% is the chance that the US Open produces a pair of champions with no contract on the exacta board at all.

Carlos Alcaraz Has To Get Past Ben Shelton First

The men's draw has collapsed into one corner. Take the 12 survivors' prices, strip the margin, and the bottom half holds 71% of the title. A single quarter inside it holds 65%. That quarter contains Alcaraz, the second seed and defending champion, and Shelton, the eighth seed, and they play each other in the quarter-final.

Nobody has to look far for the reason. Jannik Sinner, the world No. 1, is not here; it is his first absence from a major since Wimbledon in 2019. Djokovic lost his opener, the first time none of the Big Three reached the second round of a major since the 2003 French Open. The top half then ate its own seeds. Karen Khachanov, ranked 50th and unseeded, beat the third seed Félix Auger-Aliassime in four sets. Botic van de Zandschulp, ranked 70th, beat the sixth seed Alex de Minaur 6-4, 7-5, 6-2. Cerúndolo came back from two sets down to beat the ninth seed Taylor Fritz. Eight men are left in the top half and only two of them, Zverev and the 14th seed Learner Tien, were seeded inside the top 20. Two are not seeded at all, and one is a lucky loser.

Alcaraz has been the cleanest player in the tournament. He has dropped one set in four matches and beat the 20th seed Tommy Paul 6-4, 6-3, 6-4. He is also playing his first tournament in more than four months after a wrist injury at the Barcelona Open, and he now has to win three matches, the first against a man who took Stefanos Tsitsipas apart 6-2, 6-3, 6-4.

The panel and the market do not see this the same way. Kalshi's men's board, margin removed, makes Alcaraz a 57% chance. The nine seats put him at 42%. Every single seat landed below the market, from 36% to 50%. The weight came off Alcaraz and went two places: into the unseeded survivors in Zverev's half, and onto Frances Tiafoe, who beat the seventh seed Daniil Medvedev in straight sets and is priced at 4% while the panel has him at 9%. Across the whole top half the panel holds 37% of the title against the market's 29%. That is a disagreement, not a recommendation. On this lane's own graded record, the panel loses about two of every three disagreements it picks with the market, which is exactly why both numbers are printed side by side rather than one of them being called right.

Aryna Sabalenka Has The Half Without Gauff Or Świątek

The women's draw did the opposite of the men's. It stayed wide, and then it stacked its stars on one side.

Gauff, Świątek, Elena Rybakina and Mirra Andreeva are all in the bottom half, and between them they hold 46% of the women's title on Kalshi's prices. Only one of them can reach the final. Sabalenka, the two-time defending champion, is in the top half with Linda Nosková in the quarters and Pegula or Navarro waiting after that. She has won four matches in straight sets.

The half she is in is also the reason the exacta board is shaped the way it is. On Kalshi's numbers her quarter holds 32% of the women's title, more than any other, while the bottom half's two quarters hold 27% and 26% between four genuine contenders.

Every reigning women's major champion is in these last 12. Rybakina won the Australian Open in 2026, Andreeva the French Open, Nosková Wimbledon, and Sabalenka is the holder here. Three of those four are bid under eight cents: Rybakina at 6, Nosková at 4 and Andreeva at 7. Nosková, the Wimbledon champion, appears on exactly two exacta contracts, both of them one-sided.

Every Seat's Number

The standing panel runs eight seats and this board added a ninth, so nine models scored both draws on Monday morning from the same fetched card: every completed match with its score, the quarter-final bracket as far as it is filled, each survivor's remaining opponents, and the Open Era champion ledger. None of them saw a price. Eight then read the other seats' anonymised reasoning and revised; the ninth seat's revision could not be completed, so its first-round numbers stand.

Seat	Alcaraz	Zverev	Shelton	Tiafoe	Sabalenka	Rybakina	Pegula	Gauff
Fable	48%	16%	10%	7%	31%	10%	12%	10%
Opus	50%	18%	9%	7%	31%	10%	10%	11%
Sonnet	44%	18%	10%	12%	28%	14%	12%	9%
GPT	36%	22%	11%	8%	28%	17%	10%	13%
Gemini	43%	21%	9%	10%	30%	12%	12%	13%
Grok	37%	21%	10%	11%	28%	10%	13%	11%
GLM	43%	20%	9%	9%	30%	12%	13%	12%
Kimi	38%	18%	10%	11%	29%	12%	12%	12%
DeepSeek	42%	22%	10%	9%	28%	17%	10%	14%
Panel blend, the middle number	42%	20%	10%	9%	29%	12%	12%	12%
Kalshi, margin removed	57%	21%	8%	4%	28%	6%	12%	18%

Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: Claude Fable 90% on 2,256 graded calls · Claude Opus 90% on 2,378 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 88% on 2,355 graded calls · GPT 86% on 8,999 graded calls · Gemini 87% on 7,680 graded calls · Grok 85% on 6,396 graded calls · GLM 84% on 3,557 graded calls · Kimi 86% on 3,836 graded calls · DeepSeek 84% on 3,630 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.

Each seat's own numbers add to 100 across its draw. The blend row is the middle number across the nine seats, rescaled so that row adds to 100 as well, which is why it can sit a point below the raw middle number for a heavy favourite. Every number here gets graded in public once the market settles, alongside the rest of the lane on the full graded scoreboard.

Where the panel changed its mind

The revision round moved the men's board more than the women's, and the two biggest moves went in opposite directions.

Cut Alcaraz 56 to 50 and raised Zverev 13.5 to 18: I had underweighted that Zverev won Roland Garros 2026 and made the Wimbledon final. — Claude Opus

Updated Alcaraz to 43% and Andreeva to 11% on dominant form and favorable draw geometry, while downgrading Rybakina to 12% due to the brutal bottom-half cannibalization identified by the group. — GLM

GLM's move was the largest on the board, an 18-point jump on Alcaraz after starting at 25%, the lowest first-round number any seat gave him. One seat held its Alcaraz number exactly where it was, and said why:

Raised Tiafoe on the Medvedev straight-setter and Sabalenka and Rybakina on half-split geometry, trimmed Pegula toward consensus; held Alcaraz at 38 against both the 56 and 25 extremes. — Kimi

Dark horses the panel will not dismiss

Khachanov is the clearest one. He is 50th in the world and unseeded, he beat the third seed in four sets, and Kalshi has him at zero bid, one cent ask. The panel's middle number on him is 4.5%, the largest proportional split anywhere on either board. He plays the 14th seed Learner Tien on Monday, and the winner meets Cerúndolo or Blockx, the 24th and 28th seeds. That is the whole road to a semi-final.

The women's board carries no split that wide, but it has the tournament's strangest survivor. Zheng Qinwen is ranked 121st because she has barely played, she came through qualifying, and her career high is No. 4 with an Australian Open final on her record. She beat the 22nd seed Madison Keys 1-6, 7-6(3), 7-5 and plays Świątek on Monday. The panel and the market agree on her almost exactly, at 1.5% and 1.4%. What neither can express is a Zheng title, because Kalshi never wrote her a pair.

Michelsen and Tiafoe meet in a quarter-final that puts an American in the last four whichever way it goes. Michelsen has no pair listed. Tiafoe has one, with Sabalenka, and it has never traded.

What Would Change The Panel's Mind

Each seat was asked which single result over the next 48 hours would move its board most. Four answers came back. Three of them are fourth-round matches being played today; the fourth is a quarter-final later in the week.

• Shelton beats Alcaraz in the quarter-final. The largest single position on the exacta board is Alcaraz with Sabalenka, and this ends it. It would hand that quarter to a man the panel prices at 10% and the market at 8%, with Tiafoe or Michelsen waiting in the semi-final.
• Darderi beats Zverev on Monday. Zverev carries 20 points of the panel's men's board and 21 of the market's. A loss scatters them across a top half whose highest surviving seed would then be the 14th, and lifts every longshot Kalshi never wrote a pair for.
• Zheng beats Świątek. The women's bottom half loses one of its four contenders and clears the lane for Rybakina or Naomi Osaka, whose own fourth-round match is the other half of that quarter.
• Rybakina beats Osaka. Two seats named this one. It settles the quarter holding one of the two widest splits on the women's board: Kalshi prices Rybakina at 6% and the panel at 12%.

The dates that decide it

When	What
Monday, September 7	Four men's and four women's fourth-round matches, including Zverev vs Darderi and Świątek vs Zheng
September 8 to 9	All eight quarter-finals, including Alcaraz vs Shelton and Sabalenka vs Nosková
Thursday, September 10	Women's semi-finals
Friday, September 11	Men's semi-finals
Saturday, September 12	Women's final
Sunday, September 13	Men's final
Monday, September 14	Contracts expire at 1:00 a.m. ET

This board gets re-scored when the story moves. The as-of stamp at the top of the page is the one that matters; anything below it was true at 8:49 a.m. ET on September 7.

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The Bottom Line

The exacta asks for two opinions at once, and Kalshi has priced those two opinions twice over. The men's and women's title boards have traded about 14.6 million contracts on the players still alive. The 27 live exacta pairs have traded 219,332, roughly one for every 66 on the singles boards. Where the thin board and the deep ones disagree, almost all of the disagreement sits in one contract, and 90,940 outstanding positions are riding on it.

The history says pairs are hard. Across 58 Open Era tournaments there have been 51 different pairs of US Open champions, and the same two people have repeated back-to-back only three times, in 1987, 1992 and 1996. The last 10 years produced seven different men's champions and eight different women's. Alcaraz and Sabalenka are both defending champions, which is the argument for the 20-cent price and, on the numbers above, most of the reason it sits four cents clear of its own two halves.