The Quick Answer
Two Underdog NFL picks for the Week 5 Sunday slate, October 11: Jerry Jeudy (CLE) Lower 11.5 longest reception at the Jets and Kendrick Bourne (ARI) Higher on first-half receiving yards against the Lions. The full case for each, the video and the current Underdog offer with code OS1 are below.
My two Underdog Fantasy plays for Sunday are a wild pair, and I could not love them more. One is a veteran receiver whose role is disappearing in a game that should be ugly, and the other is a veteran receiver whose role just got handed to him in the highest-scoring environment on the slate. Thursday's card, October 8, split, for the record: the Bucky Irving (TB) Higher 49.5 rushing yards cashed in a hurry, 21 carries for 165, and the Jake Ferguson (DAL) Higher 5.15 fantasy points died at three catches for 19 yards.
The Picks: Week 5 Sunday Slate, October 11
| Player | Stat | Line | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy (CLE) | Longest reception | 11.5 | Lower |
| Kendrick Bourne (ARI) | First-half receiving yards | 12 on the video; confirm Underdog's posted line | Higher |
Jerry Jeudy Lower 11.5 Longest Reception
No stone goes unturned in this segment. Jeudy's snap share has plummeted through four weeks, as I laid out on the video: 63% in Week 1, 59% in Week 2, 51% in Week 3, down to 38% in Week 4, while the rookies Denzel Boston (CLE) and KC Concepcion (CLE) were up to 95% and 92% of the snaps against the Steelers. Jeudy only sees the field in three-receiver sets now, so seeing the field is the first question, and the box scores say the same thing in a different language: nine targets in four games. He had four targets in Week 1, one in Week 2, one in Week 3 and three in Week 4, and the Week 2 and Week 3 targets were both incompletions, so he went two straight games without a catch.
Here is the honest part, because a longest-reception line is a different animal than a yardage line. Jeudy has cleared 11.5 in both games where he caught anything: a 20-yarder in the opener at Jacksonville and a 17-yarder against Pittsburgh, and the 17 came in the two-minute drill before the game-winning field goal, after a blank first half and one nine-yard catch in the third. So he is 2-2 against this number in four games, and that is the whole case: the two unders were games he caught nothing at all. Nine targets in four weeks at 38% of the snaps means the Lower is a bet on the blank, not on a short catch, because in both games he caught anything, he went over. The matchup does the rest. The Jets are allowing 193 net passing yards a game through four weeks, sixth-fewest in the league per the ESPN box scores, and they held the Titans and Packers to 127 and 136. On explosive plays I will give you the full picture rather than the clean version: New York has allowed 12 passing plays of 20-plus yards, mid-pack, but half of those came in one game at Chicago, and in the other three they allowed zero, three and three. Cleveland also does not throw much, 29 attempts a game, 24th in the NFL, and the Browns are 2.5-point road underdogs in a game with a 39.5 total, the second-lowest on the Sunday slate. The risk is the kind of snaps those are. A receiver who only plays in three-receiver sets is on the field on third down and in two-minute, and the two targets he has drawn in open space were the 20-yard completion and a deep incompletion down the right side against Carolina; he does not run nine-yard outs for a living. That is why this is a volume bet and not a usage bet: on two targets a game you need the blank, and he has had two of those in four weeks. Low total, gross game environment, very few snaps. Give me the Lower.
Before you lock a pick'em line, check what the sportsbooks make of the same number: OddsShopper's live odds screen, the live NFL longest reception odds page, lines every book up side by side, and the NFL Underdog picks strategy guide covers how to de-vig the same prop at the books and check Underdog's 11.5 against the no-vig number before you take a side.
Kendrick Bourne Higher First-Half Receiving Yards
The news is the whole play. Word broke Saturday that Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) will be traded, destination still unreported, and he is out for Week 5; the Texans were the rumored landing spot when I recorded, but the only certainty is that his time in Arizona is done. With Harrison out, that solidifies Bourne as the Cardinals' No. 2 wide receiver behind Michael Wilson (ARI), who ESPN calls Jacoby Brissett's (ARI) clear No. 1 wideout, against a Lions defense in a game with a 54.5 total, the highest number on the Sunday slate. The line read 12 on the video, and the one caveat I will put up front is to check the posted number on Underdog before you lock it; the case below clears 12 or 12.5 the same way.
Bourne's season line is 12 catches for 108 yards on 14 targets, and the shape of it is the point. Eight of those catches came in Week 1 at the Chargers, when he was Brissett's second-busiest target behind Trey McBride (ARI) and had 53 first-half yards by halftime. Since then he has sat behind McBride, Wilson and even Harrison for targets, as ESPN put it. The box scores fill it in: two catches against Seattle, two at San Francisco, both pairs in the second half, and at the Giants, zero targets on 31 routes against Brissett's 39 dropbacks. Three straight first halves with no receiving yards is the base rate, and I am betting the depth chart just changed it. The risk to that volume has a name: ESPN has the vacated work going to Bourne and presumably Jalen Brooks (ARI), and Brooks has one target and no catches all season against Bourne's eight-target game. Detroit is the reason the ceiling is so high: 304 net passing yards allowed a game through four weeks, the most in the league, and 20 passing plays of 20-plus allowed, also the most, with the Saints, the Jets' offense and the Panthers all throwing for 277 or more against them. The Cardinals are 5.5-point home underdogs, they already throw 38 times a game, ninth-most in the NFL, and a Lions lead pushes that number up early. One 13-yard catch before halftime wins this, and the Week 1 version of Bourne had 53 first-half yards on five catches. I said it on the video and I will say it again: this number is six to eight yards too low, potentially more if the Cardinals are as pass-heavy as anticipated.
First-half lines are where the books sharpen least, so the live NFL first-half receiving yards odds board is worth a look for the same odds comparison on Bourne, and player props betting explained covers how a half-game line is graded if the market is new to you.
Watch the full breakdown of both plays:
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