Lindy's Long Balls: A Dome, A Launch Pad And A Bomb Factory

Let me tell you about the two home runs you never got to see on this page.

Yesterday, on MLB Lindy's Leans, Likes, and Locks, I fired on Kyle Tucker at +400 and Jeremy Peña at +500. Both went deep in the first inning of their games — because of course they did. Tucker's was a two-run shot in the opening frame of the Dodgers' NL West clincher, part of a 4-for-4 day where he nearly hit for the cycle. Peña somehow topped it: a true leadoff homer, first pitch he saw from Seth Lugo, 394 feet at 103.9 off the bat, his 20th of the year. Both tickets cashed before some of you had dinner on the table.

And they count. They just don't count to the tally.

There was no Lindy's Long Balls column yesterday. Those bets lived on the video and in the Discord, and that's where they stay. Could I quietly slide two winners into the tally after the fact and pump the record? Sure. Am I going to? Absolutely not. I'm not that guy. The tally counts what gets published in this column BEFORE the games — wins and losses alike — or it counts nothing. That's the whole reason you can trust the number at the bottom of the table.

But here's the takeaway that IS allowed: the freshest numbers show up on the video first. Tucker at +400 and Peña at +500 were sitting right there for everyone who watched. Yesterday that was the difference between celebrating and scrolling. Today I've already fired three more on the video — two of them live at the sportsbooks only, and one of them is on the exchange... and that one shows up later in this column, at a price you can't get anymore.

One more thing before the receipts, and it's a little bittersweet: with the NFL in full swing and the baseball calendar down to its last pages, this is probably the final Lindy's Long Balls of the year. No farewell tour, no confetti cannons — just one more card, built the exact same way as the first one back in August. Let's make it a good one.

First, the receipts — and Wednesday's are ugly, with a twist.

The Tally

Wednesday's card went 0-for-3, and I need you to hear how it went 0-for-3, because it's the most home run prop thing that has ever happened. The thesis on Cristian Javier was that he'd give up a bomb to a right-handed bat. He gave up a bomb — to John Rave, in a game where Kansas City homered twice. The thesis on Merrill Kelly was that he'd give up a bomb to a left-handed bat. He gave up a bomb — to Jakob Marsee, a lefty. Both pitchers paid. They just paid the wrong collectors. And Mookie Betts went 3-for-4 with a walk and never left the yard in a game where Elly De La Cruz did. A 17-cent ticket at +456, a 19-cent ticket at +398 and the +525 on Stowers, all dead — with the theses standing over the graves saying "well, I was right."

That's the game. Grade it and move on:

Every play a quarter-unit at the fee-adjusted price (Kalshi taker fee ≈ 7% × price × (1 − price)); results graded from verified box scores.

18-for-66, still +9.99 units, still nothing but quarter-unit deployments. Tonight: three tickets — a launch pad at 6:40 that owes us one, a dome at 7:10, and a nightcap in Anaheim where the home starter can't keep the ball in his own yard. Let's work.

The Dome Where Ian Seymour Keeps Paying Left-Handed Bats

Start under the roof at the Trop, where there's no wind, no rain and no excuses — just Boston against Tampa Bay lefty Ian Seymour, whose season is quietly springing leaks. The strikeout stuff is real (11.0 per nine), but he's allowed 10 home runs over his last six starts, and here's the part that should make no sense: 10 of the 23 homers he's given up this year have gone to LEFT-handed bats. A lefty getting taken deep by lefties at that rate is a pitcher whose fastball plan isn't working against the very hitters he's supposed to neutralize.

So we send up a lefty who already owns a receipt. Wilyer Abreu — who took Seymour deep on July 18, who is hitting .304 with a .497 slug against left-handed pitching this year, and whose 12.6% barrel rate and 24 homers say the power is fully real. He's in the lineup batting third. Long-time readers know the history here: the tally has fired on Abreu three times and lost three times, and I keep coming back because the profile keeps deserving it. Tonight the best number lived at a book for once: I fired at +530 on DraftKings, and the tally tracks the +530 I actually hold. Kalshi's register sits at 16¢ — +490 effective after fees — which is still a perfectly fair fight if the exchange is your home. But getting the best available number, wherever it lives, is the whole religion around here.

Back to the Launch Pad That Burned Us Wednesday

The 6:40 window sends us straight back to the scene of Wednesday's crime — the banks of the Ohio, where our Dodgers ticket watched the wrong guys hit the bombs. Great American Ball Park carries a 118 homer factor, and tonight it hosts a very specific game-theory problem. Cincinnati starts Chase Burns, the All-Star, and the All-Star is on a leash: the Reds capped his workload in early September — 145.1 innings this year against 43.1 last year, with a fresh $105 million extension to protect — and he's gone roughly three innings a start since. The designated bulk man behind him is left-hander Brandon Williamson, and here is tonight's headline number: Williamson has allowed a home run in EVERY one of his four September outings, 4 in 15.2 innings.

So this ticket isn't a bet against the ace. It's a bet against the fourth inning. And the bat I want waiting there is one this tally has cashed before: Alex Bregman — who planted No. 26 into the Wrigley basket on Wednesday, who hits .285/.405/.482 with 7 bombs against left-handed pitching, and who one Chicago outlet just called one of the two or three best hitters in baseball in the second half. Long-time readers remember Aug. 29 — Bregman at 13¢, +625, wind out at Wrigley, one of the prettiest cashes on the whole table. Tonight he's 15¢ on Kalshi, +529 effective, and no book board I can read posts a better number. Best available on the exchange, exactly how we like it.

The fine print, two pieces: Bregman is 0-for-3 with a strikeout against Burns himself — fine, we're not buying Burns at-bats, we're buying everything after them — and Williamson threw two innings yesterday, so Cincinnati could hand the bulk work to a different arm tonight. The thesis survives either way in a 118 park, but you deserve the whole map before you click.

The Nightcap Where the Souvenirs Keep Leaving Angel Stadium

The last ticket is the one I'd keep if you made me choose — and it's the one I already hold at a number that no longer exists.

Minnesota visits the Angels at 9:38 ET, and Los Angeles hands the ball to Grayson Rodriguez. Skip the ERA — here are the numbers this column actually cares about: Rodriguez has served up 7 home runs in just 39.1 innings at Angel Stadium this year. That's 1.60 bombs per nine in the exact yard he pitches tonight, with left-handed bats hitting .318 off him while he leans on a 96-mph four-seamer more than half the time. The man is running a souvenir stand at home, and lefties get the employee discount. The park plays at a 94 factor, but tonight it gets help: 75 degrees, clear, wind blowing out at 9.

The bat coming for him hits second for the Twins: Brooks Lee, a switch hitter who does nearly all of his damage from the left side — .265 with a .483 slug against righties, 23 homers on the season — which lines him up exactly against the split Rodriguez can't defend. I fired on Lee this morning on the Leans, Likes, and Locks video at +841. By this afternoon the Kalshi register had been squeezed to 13¢ — +625 effective — because the market woke up and did the same math. The column tracks the +841 I actually hold, and the video-first lesson from the top of this page writes itself.

The fine print: Lee's quality-of-contact profile is modest — a 4.2% barrel rate and 88.1 mph average exit velocity — so this one rides the matchup and the environment rather than raw Statcast thunder. That's exactly why it pays better than 8-to-1. And a fairness note on Rodriguez: he's had a run of better outings lately (3.86 ERA over his last five), so the corpse isn't as cold as the season line suggests.

Three separate tickets. Never a parlay. A quiet night in Cincinnati should not take the Anaheim nightcap down with it.

Same operating system every night. Each play stands alone at a quarter-unit. One cash tonight and the evening is fine; two and it's a party; three and I'm insufferable on the next video.

The Card

Wilyer Abreu (BOS), 1+ HR, tracked at +530 (DraftKings). The book beat the exchange on this one — Kalshi's 16¢ plays at +490 after fees — so the ticket lives at DK and the tally tracks the +530 actually held. The case: Seymour has allowed 10 HR over his last six starts with 10 of 23 to lefty bats; Abreu took him deep July 18, hits .304/.497 vs LHP, and carries a 12.6% barrel rate. Dome, so zero weather risk.

Alex Bregman (CHC), 1+ HR, 15¢, effective +529. No readable book posts a better number — best available on the exchange. The case: Burns is capped near three innings, the piggyback lefty behind him has allowed a homer in all four of his September outings (4 in 15.2 IP), and Bregman hits .285/.405/.482 with 7 HR vs LHP, fresh off No. 26 on Wednesday, in a 118 park. The fine print: 0-for-3 career vs Burns himself, and the Reds could route the bulk innings elsewhere after Williamson worked yesterday.

Brooks Lee (MIN), 1+ HR, tracked at +841. Fired on the video before the market moved; the Kalshi register sat at 13¢ (+625 effective) by publish. The case: Rodriguez has allowed 7 homers in 39.1 innings at Angel Stadium (1.60 HR/9 at home) with lefty bats hitting .318 off him, against Lee's .265/.483 vs-RHP side and the wind out at 9. The fine print: Lee's 4.2% barrel rate makes this an environment play, priced accordingly.

Quick fee math for the new arrivals: Kalshi's taker fee runs roughly 7% × price × (1 − price), so a 15-cent ticket plays at +529 after the fee, a 16-cent ticket at +490, and 13 cents at +625. We quote the effective number every time and put it next to the best book price, because a tally built on odds you can't actually collect is fiction. And the standing reminder: nobody at Kalshi limits you for winning, so grabbing the fresh number early — the video number — is the whole game.

Final Thoughts

A dome where the lefties feast, a launch pad that owes us one from Wednesday, and a nightcap against a starter who can't keep the ball in his own yard — with the receipts from a 0-for-3 Wednesday posted face-up above them, wrong collectors and all.

Now the sermon, because it never stops being true. A 15-cent ticket implies about a 15% chance before fees. The +530 on Abreu implies about 16%. The +841 on Lee, roughly 11%. Flip every one of them over: the most likely outcome of each of these bets, individually, is a loss — and that's precisely why they pay +529, +530 and +841 when they hit. Anyone selling you a "lock" on a home run prop is selling you something, and it isn't math. We survive the 0-for-3 nights because the math was priced honestly and the stakes were small.

Quarter-units, forever. No chasing Wednesday, no doubling because Tucker and Peña cashed on camera. The tally is +9.99 units on 16.50 risked because every single entry was the same boring size. Boring is still undefeated.

And if this really is the season's last dance for the column: every number in that table up top happened exactly as printed, wins and losses face-up, all summer long. Thanks for hammering quarter-units with me. Football's calling — you know where to find me.

— Lindy

Prices captured off the Kalshi 1+ home run board on the afternoon of Sept. 18, 2026 (ET), except the Lee entry (a position taken on the morning's MLB Lindy's Leans, Likes, and Locks video) and the Abreu entry (a position taken at DraftKings), each tracked at the price actually held; effective odds are fee-adjusted at 0.07 × price × (1 − price). Pitch-level, batted-ball and split data from Baseball Savant, FanGraphs, StatMuse and CBS Sports through games of Sept. 17; park factors on the 100 scale; lineups and weather per RotoWire as of this afternoon. Sept. 16 results verified against CBS Sports and StatMuse box scores; Sept. 17 video results verified against MLB.com and NBC Sports game accounts. Sportsbook comparisons reflect the best widely posted price at capture time and move constantly. These are model-informed opinions, not predictions of fact, and nothing here is financial advice. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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