The Quick Answer
Two Underdog NFL picks for the Week 4 Sunday slate: Aaron Jones (MIN) Higher 16.5 rushing attempts and Emanuel Wilson (SEA) Higher 47.5 rushing yards. Both are volume reads on big home favorites with thin backfields behind the starter. The reasoning, the video and the current Underdog offer with code OS1 are below.
The afternoon window is where this card lives. Minnesota hosts Miami at 4:05 p.m. ET as a 10-point favorite, and Seattle hosts the Chargers at 4:25 p.m. ET as a 7-point favorite. Big home favorites run the ball late, and on both of these teams the back who gets that work is not in question.
The Picks: Week 4 Sunday, October 4
| Player | Stat | Line | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones (MIN) | Rushing attempts | 16.5 | Higher |
| Emanuel Wilson (SEA) | Rushing yards | 47.5 | Higher |
Jones Is The Vikings' Only Back
Jordan Mason (MIN) went to injured reserve after Week 1, and since then Jones has been the Vikings' backfield: 23 carries the next week, 17 the week after. The line is 16.5, and he has cleared it in both games since Mason went down. A 10-point home favorite against the Dolphins is the spot where that workload grows, not shrinks, because the Minnesota defense is good enough to hand the offense a lead and the coaching staff has shown it does not trust anyone else to carry it. I have Jones at 20 or more carries on Sunday, which makes this the easy start to the card.
Wilson Has The Seattle Backfield To Himself
Jadarian Price (SEA) is on injured reserve, Zach Charbonnet (SEA) is listed Out, and George Holani (SEA) has been playing through an injury. That leaves Wilson as the Seahawks' back against a Chargers team that comes in short on answers up front, with Seattle laying 7 at home.
Wilson's last two games are the range: 21 carries for 92 yards two weeks ago, then 9 for 14 in a game Seattle never controlled. This one sets up like the first. Last week we took James Cook III (BUF) Higher 80 rushing yards in a spot like this and he went for 154. Wilson at 47.5 is the same read at a lower number.
Watch the full breakdown of both plays:
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