The Quick Answer
Two Underdog NFL picks today for Lions-Bills on Thursday Night Football: Sam LaPorta (DET) Higher 8.35 fantasy points and James Cook III (BUF) Higher 78.5 rushing yards. Both come off Eric Lindquist's card, and both are the same read: a Week 1 box score that undersold the role. The reasoning, the video and the current Underdog offer with code OS1 are below.
NFL Week 2 opens with the Detroit Lions at the Buffalo Bills, 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, and the total sat at 54.5 when the video was recorded, which is shootout territory. The Underdog Fantasy board for the game looks efficient almost everywhere, and the tight end is the outlier on it. The running back is a different case: his opponent changed. Both players posted a Week 1 line that came in small next to the job they actually held, and both are Highers. The tight end comes first, because his case has to get past one ugly fact about Buffalo's 2025 defense before it goes anywhere.
The Picks: Lions At Bills, Thursday, September 17
| Player | Stat | Line | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta (DET) | Fantasy points | 8.35 | Higher |
| James Cook III (BUF) | Rushing yards | 78.5 | Higher |
Both lines are the ones quoted in the video, and Underdog can move them before kickoff, so check the board before you enter. The first row is the one with a real argument against it, so that is where the case starts.
Sam LaPorta Higher 8.35 Fantasy Points
The fact is this: the Bills were by far the best team in the league at defending the tight end position in 2025. Any LaPorta Higher has to answer that, and the answer is that the 2026 unit is not the 2025 unit. Buffalo had roster turnover on that side of the ball and has a new defensive coordinator, Jim Leonhard, running the defense. That does not make Buffalo worse against tight ends by default. It is a reason to doubt the unit will be the same stonewall against the position that it was a year ago.
Then there is what Week 1 actually showed. LaPorta drew eight targets and caught five passes for 48 yards, and that reads as the low end of his production, not the middle of it, because he was on the field for better than 80% of Detroit's Week 1 snaps. A tight end who almost never leaves the field, in a game where a lot of offensive plays and efficiency are expected on both sides, is the outlier on this board. The play is LaPorta's whole portfolio tonight, and a fantasy-points line is the closest thing on the board to holding all of it at once. Underdog's fantasy scoring has no direct sportsbook twin, but the yardage piece does. Before you enter it, check OddsShopper's live odds screen: the live NFL receiving yards odds page puts every major book's number side by side, the same odds comparison the NFL Underdog picks strategy guide walks through.
James Cook III Higher 78.5 Rushing Yards
LaPorta's Week 1 was the low end of a big role. Cook's was quieter still, and his case does not need the total to work. For as electric as these two offenses were in their openers, Cook got 13 rushing attempts and 57 yards on the ground. The first thing that changes tonight is the opponent: going from the Houston Texans' front to the Lions' front is not the same assignment.
The second thing is what Cook does with the carries he gets. In 2025 he averaged 4.9 true yards per carry, evaded 77 tackles and ripped off 16 breakaway runs, and all three marks were top 10 at his position. That is the profile of a back who gets to a number like 78.5 in chunks, and chunk plays are the expectation here, along with far more involvement in the offense than the opener gave him.
The risk is plain. Another 13-carry night makes 78.5 a long way off, and this pick is a call that the workload does not repeat. The books post a carries market too, so the live NFL rushing attempts prop odds page shows how much work the market expects him to get, and the live NFL rushing yards prop odds page shows where each book hangs the yardage. If the Higher and Lower format is new to you, player props betting explained covers how a line like this gets set and settled.
Both Highers land in the same place. The Week 1 box score was the low end for each role, and tonight is where that corrects: LaPorta through the volume of a 54.5-total game, Cook through a softer front and the chunk runs his 2025 profile says are coming.
Watch the full breakdown of both plays:
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