The Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks board opens with Pete Crow-Armstrong at +407 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | +407 | ProphetX | 19.7% | 35 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | +556 | DraftKings 🎁 | 15.2% | 32 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 34 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | +614 | NoVig | 14.0% | 33 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | +650 | Fanatics | 13.3% | 34 |
| Michael Conforto (CHC) | +750 | Fanatics | 11.8% | 26 |
| Miguel Amaya (CHC) | +936 | Underdog 🎁 | 9.7% | 3 |
| Alex Bregman (CHC) | +944 | Kalshi | 9.6% | 31 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 25, 2026 · 10:10 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Chase Field: park index 83.8 · roof/indoors — weather neutral.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — 36% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 18 PA against righties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +402 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +402 · NoVig +365
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +556 at DraftKings | exchanges: ProphetX +510
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — homers every 22 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +573 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · ProphetX +519
- Ian Happ (CHC) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 24 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +550 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +529
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +1000 at TheScore | exchanges: ProphetX +764
- Tim Tawa (AZ) — homers every 26 PA against righties. (model confidence C)
- books: best +950 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +853
- Alex Bregman (CHC) — homers every 26 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +950 at Fanatics | exchanges: Kalshi +944 · ProphetX +755 · NoVig +809
- Lars Nootbaar (AZ) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +950 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +735
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- JediModi on Tails likes these plays:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 Total Stolen Bases (+1000). Bet now → Bet365
- Bank of Dennis on Tails likes these plays:
- Chicago Cubs Over 4.5 Team Runs (+110) Bet now
- Under 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-105) Bet now
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails (#3 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+2200). Bet now → Fanatics
- EMac on Tails (#3 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Ian Happ Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140). Bet now
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails (#5 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-177). Bet now → NoVig
More from these experts on Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks. DFSnDonuts Picks, JediModi post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals · Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins · Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants · Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels · Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals · Houston Astros @ New York Yankees · Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves · Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets · Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks today? Pete Crow-Armstrong at +407 (ProphetX) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
