The Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins board opens with Wilyer Abreu at +500 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 33 |
| Heriberto Hernandez (MIA) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 34 |
| Willson Contreras (BOS) | +590 | NoVig | 14.5% | 34 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | +637 | Polymarket 🎁 | 13.6% | 32 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | +725 | BetMGM 🎁 | 12.1% | 31 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | +809 | NoVig | 11.0% | 29 |
| Adley Rutschman (BOS) | +875 | BetMGM 🎁 | 10.3% | 28 |
| Mickey Gasper (BOS) | +1050 | BetMGM 🎁 | 8.7% | 21 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 25, 2026 · 10:10 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at loanDepot park: park index 70.1 · wind 5 mph.
- Heriberto Hernández (MIA) — homers every 20 PA against lefties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time — but hitting into a 5 mph wind. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +490
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +637 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +608 · NoVig +590
- Agustín Ramírez (MIA) — homers every 30 PA against lefties · sees the starter a 3rd time — but hitting into a 5 mph wind. (model confidence B)
- books: best +775 at BetMGM | exchanges: ProphetX +657 · NoVig +770
- Otto Lopez (MIA) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time — but hitting into a 5 mph wind. (model confidence B)
- books: best +1076 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +862 · NoVig +1076
- Esteury Ruiz (MIA) — 44% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 20 PA against lefties — but hitting into a 5 mph wind. (model confidence C)
- books: best +950 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +862
- Jakob Marsee (MIA) — homers every 43 PA against lefties · sees the starter a 3rd time — but this starter's mix is an awkward one for him. (model confidence B)
- books: best +1000 at TheScore | exchanges: ProphetX +774
- Javier Sanoja (MIA) — homers every 40 PA against lefties · sees the starter a 3rd time — but hitting into a 5 mph wind. (model confidence C)
- books: best +963 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +963 · ProphetX +843
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) — homers every 100 PA against lefties · sees the starter a 3rd time — but this starter's mix is an awkward one for him, hitting into a 5 mph wind. (model confidence B)
- books: best +1567 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +1347 · ProphetX +1323 · NoVig +1567
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails likes 6-leg parlay on this game (+829). Bet now
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes Sandy Alcantara Under 18.5 Total Pitching Outs (-115). Bet now → Polymarket
More from these experts on Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins. KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals · Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants · Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels · Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals · Houston Astros @ New York Yankees · Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves · Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets · Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins today? Wilyer Abreu at +500 (Polymarket) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
