The Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins board opens with Heriberto Hernandez at +539 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heriberto Hernandez (MIA) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 36 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 35 |
| Willson Contreras (BOS) | +631 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 13.7% | 36 |
| Griffin Conine (MIA) | +708 | Underdog 🎁 | 12.4% | 7 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | +750 | Fanatics | 11.8% | 33 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | +784 | ProphetX | 11.3% | 32 |
| Adley Rutschman (BOS) | +950 | Fanatics | 9.5% | 29 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | +1088 | Underdog 🎁 | 8.4% | 33 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 25, 2026 · 03:00 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at loanDepot park: park index 87.5 · wind 8 mph.
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — homers every 19 PA against righties — but hitting into a 7 mph wind. (model confidence B)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539
- Heriberto Hernández (MIA) — homers every 20 PA against lefties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time — but hitting into a 7 mph wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +490
- Willson Contreras (BOS) — no edge in the conditions — hitting into a 7 mph wind. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +568
- Agustín Ramírez (MIA) — homers every 30 PA against lefties · sees the starter a 3rd time — but hitting into a 7 mph wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +725 at BetMGM
- Jarren Duran (BOS) — homers every 30 PA against righties — but hitting into a 7 mph wind. (model confidence B)
- books: best +750 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +725 · NoVig +733
- Adley Rutschman (BOS) — punishes sinkers and cutters 15% of the time, and that is 20% of what this starter throws · homers every 40 PA against righties — but hitting into a 7 mph wind. (model confidence B)
- books: best +950 at Fanatics | exchanges: NoVig +852
- Otto Lopez (MIA) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time — but hitting into a 7 mph wind. (model confidence A)
- books: best +1200 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +1029
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips — but hitting into a 7 mph wind. (model confidence B)
- books: best +1050 at Fanatics
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails (#7 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 Total Batter Strikeouts (+150). Bet now → TheScore
- SEvansBets on Tails likes Payton Tolle Over 6.5 Total Strikeouts (+135). Bet now → NoVig
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails (#9 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes 6-leg parlay on this game (+829). Bet now
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes Sandy Alcantara Under 18.5 Total Pitching Outs (-115). Bet now → Polymarket
More from these experts on Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins. KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS, SEvansBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals · Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants · Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels · Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals · Houston Astros @ New York Yankees · Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves · Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets · Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
