The Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves board opens with Shohei Ohtani at +270 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | +270 | ProphetX | 27.0% | 12 |
| Max Muncy (OAK) | +340 | Circa | 22.7% | 1 |
| Max Muncy (LAD) | +377 | ProphetX | 21.0% | 10 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | +392 | ProphetX | 20.3% | 14 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | +490 | FanDuel 🎁 | 16.9% | 14 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | +525 | NoVig | 16.0% | 12 |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | +525 | NoVig | 16.0% | 13 |
| Freddie Freeman (LAD) | +559 | ProphetX | 15.2% | 12 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 25, 2026 · 03:00 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Truist Park: park index 113.5 · wind 5 mph.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — punishes sinkers and cutters 15% of the time, and that is 39% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +270 at NoVig | exchanges: NoVig +270
- Matt Olson (ATL) — homers every 18 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +398 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +398 · ProphetX +392 · NoVig +388
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) — homers every 20 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +475 at Fanatics
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — homers every 23 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +519 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +519
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +559 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +559 · NoVig +525
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) — on the bat alone — homers every 22 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence B)
- books: best +559 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +559
- Austin Riley (ATL) — on the bat alone — homers every 31 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence C)
- books: best +559 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +559
- Kyle Tucker (LAD) — 30% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 31 PA against righties · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +650 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +608
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- SEvansBets on Tails likes Dominic Smith Over 0.5 Total Bases (-105). Bet now → Bet365
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Max Muncy Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+560).
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails (#8 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Max Muncy Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+575).
More from these experts on Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves. SEvansBets posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals · Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins · Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants · Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels · Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals · Houston Astros @ New York Yankees · Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays · Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets · Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
