Yordan Alvarez at +264 headlines the Houston Astros @ New York Yankees home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | +264 | NoVig | 27.5% | 37 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | +358 | Polymarket 🎁 | 21.8% | 36 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | +381 | Polymarket 🎁 | 20.8% | 36 |
| Spencer Jones (NYY) | +465 | Polymarket 🎁 | 17.7% | 35 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | +506 | NoVig | 16.5% | 37 |
| Luis Garcia Jr. (NYY) | +525 | Fanatics | 16.0% | 18 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) | +525 | Fanatics | 16.0% | 35 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | +545 | NoVig | 15.5% | 37 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 25, 2026 · 03:00 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Yankee Stadium: park index 124.0 · wind 4 mph.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 29% of what a slumping starter (harder contact allowed than 80% of MLB starters over his last 5 starts) throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +245 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +228 · Polymarket +245
- Ben Rice (NYY) — punishes four-seam fastballs 17% of the time, and that is 31% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +358 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +358 · ProphetX +348 · NoVig +355
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 31% of what this starter throws · homers every 19 PA against righties · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +381 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +381
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) — homers every 21 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +525 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +426
- Spencer Jones (NYY) — on the bat alone — homers every 18 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence C)
- books: best +465 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +465
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) — homers every 19 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +525 at NoVig | exchanges: NoVig +525
- Daulton Varsho (HOU) — homers every 20 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +650 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +529
- Christian Walker (HOU) — homers every 23 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +573 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · Polymarket +500
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- SEvansBets on Tails likes Will Warren Over 2.5 Total Earned Runs (+135). Bet now → NoVig
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails (#7 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Spencer Jones Over 1.5 Total Batter Strikeouts (+175). Bet now → BetMGM
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails (#8 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Yainer Diaz Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+750). Bet now → Fanatics
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails (#9 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Spencer Jones Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+113). Bet now → NoVig
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Houston Astros Moneyline (+130). Bet now → Caesars
More from these experts on Houston Astros @ New York Yankees. BGrebbs, DFSnDonuts Picks, SEvansBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals · Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins · Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants · Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels · Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals · Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves · Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets · Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
