Pete Alonso (+475) and Coby Mayo (+584) lead tonight's Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | +475 | Fanatics | 17.4% | 37 |
| Coby Mayo (BAL) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 35 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BAL) | +588 | ProphetX | 14.5% | 32 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | +600 | Fanatics | 14.3% | 35 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) | +650 | Unibet | 13.3% | 34 |
| Jordan Walker (STL) | +698 | Polymarket 🎁 | 12.5% | 34 |
| Joshua Baez (STL) | +708 | Underdog 🎁 | 12.4% | 27 |
| Samuel Basallo (BAL) | +750 | Bovada | 11.8% | 15 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 25, 2026 · 10:10 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Busch Stadium: park index 76.3 · wind 5 mph.
- Jordan Walker (STL) — on the bat alone — homers every 29 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence B)
- books: best +698 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +698
- Alec Burleson (STL) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 23% of what this starter throws · homers every 23 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +600 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · NoVig +545
- Joshua Báez (STL) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side. (model confidence C)
- books: best +669 at NoVig | exchanges: NoVig +669
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — punishes four-seam fastballs 17% of the time, and that is 23% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +800 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +770 · ProphetX +676
- Iván Herrera (STL) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +1050 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +813
- Blaze Jordan (STL) — on the bat alone — homers every 111 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1500 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +1029
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins · Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants · Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels · Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals · Houston Astros @ New York Yankees · Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves · Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets · Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals today? Pete Alonso at +475 (Fanatics) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
