The Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers board opens with Junior Caminero at +397 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | +397 | ProphetX | 20.1% | 37 |
| Hao-Yu Lee (DET) | +614 | NoVig | 14.0% | 29 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | +625 | Bet365 | 13.8% | 34 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | +685 | Kalshi | 12.7% | 37 |
| Dillon Dingler (DET) | +700 | NoVig | 12.5% | 33 |
| Eduardo Valencia (DET) | +712 | Underdog 🎁 | 12.3% | 32 |
| Corey Julks (DET) | +750 | PointsBet | 11.8% | 1 |
| Cedric Mullins (TB) | +800 | Bet365 | 11.1% | 34 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 25, 2026 · 03:00 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Comerica Park: park index 110.9 · wind 9 mph.
- Junior Caminero (TB) — homers every 15 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +381 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +381
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — homers every 25 PA against righties — but hitting into a 9 mph wind. (model confidence B)
- books: best +669 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +669
- Dillon Dingler (DET) — on the bat alone — homers every 32 PA against lefties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way. (model confidence B)
- books: best +550 at Bet365
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +794 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +794
- Hao-Yu Lee (DET) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 34% of what a slumping starter (harder contact allowed than 75% of MLB starters over his last 5 starts) throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +608 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +608
- Spencer Torkelson (DET) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 34% of what a slumping starter (harder contact allowed than 75% of MLB starters over his last 5 starts) throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +529 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +529
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 29% of what a slumping starter (harder contact allowed than 75% of MLB starters over his last 5 starts) throws — but hitting into a 9 mph wind. (model confidence B)
- books: best +850 at BetRivers | exchanges: ProphetX +764 · NoVig +809
- Max Clark (DET) — 34% of his damage flies pull-side — but hitting into a 9 mph wind. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1323 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +1323
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Kia_Parlay on Tails likes Drew Rasmussen Over 4.5 Total Strikeouts (-161).
- Prophet on Tails (#2 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Under 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-113). Bet now
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails (#9 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes these plays:
- EMac on Tails likes Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Run Line (+147). Bet now → NoVig
- PrizePick Champions on Tails likes Over 7.5 Total Runs (-110). Bet now → HardRock
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails (#9 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes 2-leg parlay on this game (+146).
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes Yandy Díaz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-170). Bet now
- The Bet Baba on Tails likes Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 Total Hits Allowed (+117). Bet now → DraftKings
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails (#7 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+1200). Bet now → Bet365
More from these experts on Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers. DFSnDonuts Picks, KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS, Kia_Parlay, Prophet, Rebel Mickie, The Bet Baba post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals · Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins · Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants · Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels · Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals · Houston Astros @ New York Yankees · Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves · Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
