The Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners board opens with Kyle Schwarber at +286 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | +286 | Polymarket 🎁 | 25.9% | 38 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | +376 | NoVig | 21.0% | 35 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 37 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 36 |
| Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | +540 | BookMaker | 15.6% | 28 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | +585 | Underdog 🎁 | 14.6% | 37 |
| Josh Naylor (SEA) | +700 | Fanatics | 12.5% | 34 |
| Cole Young (SEA) | +725 | ProphetX | 12.1% | 33 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 25, 2026 · 03:00 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at T-Mobile Park: park index 113.5 · wind 6 mph.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 29% of what a slumping starter (harder contact allowed than 76% of MLB starters over his last 5 starts) throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time — but cold air at 65°. (model confidence C)
- books: best +286 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +286
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — punishes sinkers and cutters 15% of the time, and that is 17% of what this starter throws · 46% of his damage flies pull-side — but cold air at 65°. (model confidence C)
- books: best +376 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +331 · ProphetX +358 · NoVig +376
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 28% of what this starter throws · homers every 20 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips — but cold air at 65°. (model confidence C)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 29% of what a slumping starter (harder contact allowed than 76% of MLB starters over his last 5 starts) throws · homers every 19 PA against righties — but cold air at 65°. (model confidence C)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · NoVig +471
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) — 19% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · sees the starter a 3rd time — but cold air at 65°. (model confidence C)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +485
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) — 22% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time — but cold air at 65°. (model confidence C)
- books: best +559 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +559 · NoVig +525
- Taylor Ward (SEA) — 13% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · sees the starter a 3rd time — but cold air at 65°. (model confidence C)
- books: best +850 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +666 · NoVig +770
- Trea Turner (PHI) — 19% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 30 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips — but cold air at 65°. (model confidence C)
- books: best +857 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +857 · ProphetX +794
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Ziny Bets on Tails likes these plays:
- EMac on Tails likes these plays:
- Prophet on Tails (#2 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Under 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-115). Bet now
- JediModi on Tails likes these plays:
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails (#7 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Luis Arraez Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+2200). Bet now → Fanatics
- FOTP on Tails (#10 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-112). Bet now
- ShanderBets on Tails likes 3-leg parlay on this game (+969). Bet now
More from these experts on Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners. FOTP, JediModi, Prophet, ShanderBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals · Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins · Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants · Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels · Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals · Houston Astros @ New York Yankees · Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves · Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
