Sunday means early action on the diamond with quick turnarounds from Saturday night. There’s some good value on the board especially early in the slate, starting with first game in Cleveland. Be it a No Run First Inning or a Yes Run First Inning bet, the aim is to combine recent hitting and pitching trends, ballpark data, and the first-inning moneyline tool at OddsShopper. Here are the best value plays for today’s action with the best NRFI picks for Sunday, Aug. 21.
Best NRFI Picks Today: No Run First Inning Bets 8/21
White Sox at Guardians Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
The Sox get another opportunity to watch Dylan Cease plow through opposing batters in the early game to start Sunday’s action. The Guardians counter with Aaron Civale, who is no Cease but still boasts a good strikeout rate and lower walk rate. Despite being lights out, Cease still has a near uncomfortable walk rate, which may factor into the shade on the YRFI side, but neither team should be able to hit their way out of the first. The Peacock games have trended to the under full game plays, which certainly translates over to the first inning.
Both teams are league average when it comes to first inning scoring, be it the White Sox on the road or the Guardians in Cleveland. Neither team has enough consistent hitting to get around both things working against them – strong starting pitching and an under trend for these early games.
Best NRFI Bet Today: White Sox at Guardians NRFI (-105 BetMGM)
Astros at Braves Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
Another game that features two strong starting pitchers and is also a shorter turnaround in Atlanta. Despite those factors, the NRFI is still the better bet not only in play, but also in value. Jose Urquidy will square off against Charlie Morton today, as Morton comes off a dominant performance against the Mets – striking out 12 in the process. Urquidy has some strong numbers but might be doing that more off run support than his own doing, as his metrics don’t jump off the page outside of a low walk rate. This number is off and will move this morning to better reflect the starting pitching matchup.
The Braves are only scoring 0.40 runs per first inning (RPFI) at home, close to the bottom of the league. Houston has a better scoring clip for RPFI on the road, but going against a red-hot Morton should continue to cool off the Astros. Play the number or the pitching matchup — either way it’s the best value.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Astros at Braves NRFI (-105 BetMGM)
Angels at Tigers Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
The Angels got Mike Trout back which is a huge plus for a couple of obvious reasons, one being Shohei Ohtani might not have to singlehandedly win baseball games. He will have another shot at that tonight in Detroit as he will pitch and try to attack Eduardo Rodriguez at the plate. Detroit is a better hitting and scoring team – especially in the first inning – at home rather than on the road. It’s the only shot they have at getting to most pitching, let alone an ace in Ohtani.
Rodriguez isn’t good – a low strikeout rate and an uncomfortable walk rate north of 10%. This is a fantastic spot for the Angels to bounce back from that dreadful loss yesterday to the Tigers, not just by aggressively going after Rodriguez but applying pressure from the mound with their best pitcher. This also feels like the number could be on the move, so best to jump in when you see this at plus money!
Best NRFI Bet Today: Angels at Tigers (+115 BetMGM)
