It’s a fresh start to the work week, which means new series begin on the diamond. Factoring in the rain delay yesterday, it was a 1-1-1 day, with hopes of breaking out the broom tonight. Be it a No Run First Inning or a Yes Run First Inning bet, the aim is to combine recent hitting and pitching trends, ballpark data, and the first-inning moneyline tool at OddsShopper. Here are the best value plays for today’s action with the best NRFI picks for Monday, Aug. 22.
Best NRFI Picks Today: No Run First Inning Bets 8/22
Braves at Pirates Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
Locked into a playoff race for both the division and Wild Card, the Braves open a series tonight in Pittsburgh with Jake Odorizzi on the mound. This line should move away from -120 for any YRFI as people wise up to just how bad Odorizzi truly is at keeping runners off the bags. His three starts so far for Atlanta have been forgettable, including his most recent against the Mets, and he carries a WHIP just south of 2.00. This opens a small window for the Pirates, who only average 0.32 runs per first inning (RPFI) at home.
Pittsburgh did score two first inning runs yesterday against the Reds and have as favorable of a pitching matchup as it’s going to get for this team. They will send Roansy Contreras to cool off one of the harder-hitting offenses in baseball. Bad pitching all around and one team that’s given up is a great combo for runs.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Braves at Pirates YRFI (-120 BetMGM)
Brewers at Dodgers Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
While Eric Lauer has only given up first inning runs in 3 of his last 10 road starts, two of those came against the Cardinals. The Dodgers aren’t any easier of an opponent on paper. However, it’s actually a decent matchup for someone with an above-average strikeout rate and a good enough launch angle to keep the ball in the park. The Dodgers have taken full advantage of bad to average pitching, as they are one of the best teams in RPFI home scoring average, but they also limit opponents to just 0.33 RPFI.
Julio Urias will be charged with maintaining that trend while taking on a Brewers team that’s below league average, scoring just 0.38 RPFI. This comes down to Lauer and the Dodgers’ top third of the lineup. The Brewers have held on the road with solid pitching, allowing just 0.48 RPFI away from home.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Brewers at Dodgers NRFI (-120 BetMGM)
Mets at Yankees Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
Not to pick on Domingo German, but that’s exactly what the Mets plan to do early and often. It starts in the first inning for New York as they look to improve on a 0.44 RPFI road average, with it not truly being a road game. The park only helps Mets hitting, and German has settled in with a 1.41 WHIP. This is a value spot for the Mets, who normally struggle early in the first away from home.
Max Scherzer looks to continue his dominant campaign after surviving the Braves in his last start. The Mets ace has seen a run cross in the first inning, most recently two starts ago against the Phillies despite it being the only run surrendered. The Yankees are still sixth best in all of baseball with a 0.71 RPFI home scoring average, and if they can sustain that, it’s a problem for Scherzer.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Mets at Yankees YRFI (+105 BetMGM)
