Tonight features an eight-game MLB slate with a ton of great pitching props to target. This Party Prop Parlay features up to FIVE Player Prop bets that’ll provide the best chance to win based on Stokastic’s simulations. The prop party is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community, and Alex “Awesemo” Baker — the world’s No. 1 daily fantasy player — uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 8/29
Jose Suarez O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
After sweeping the Blue Jays, the Angels will return home for a three-game series against the Yankees. The month of August has not been kind for the Yankees, as they have a record of 9-16 and have scored the fourth-fewest runs. However, they have won four of their last six games as they try to right the ship and gain some momentum heading into the playoffs. The Yankees are still a very powerful offense that ranks below average in strikeout rate.
Angels southpaw Jose Suarez will take the mound against the Yankees tonight, and he is a +155 after losing in back-to-back starts. Suarez may have a career-best 22.5% strikeout rate, but he has only reached six or more strikeouts in 5 of his 14 starts this season. Stokastic projects Suarez for only 4.3 strikeouts and an xWin rate of 72% in this difficult matchup. This is a tough spot for Suarez not only from a strikeout perspective, but also for simply slowing down this Yankees lineup.
Best MLB Pick Today: Jose Suarez UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-167)
Jose Berrios O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
In his first full season with the Blue Jays, starting pitcher Jose Berrios has had some troubles. Despite his 9-5 record, Berrios has allowed a 5.28 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and a 1.80 HR/9. Outside of his rookie season, those are all career-worst numbers for Berrios. He has also allowed a career-worst 42.2% hard-hit rate and a 11.1% barrel percentage, which is the first time in his career that he has allowed a double-digit mark. Generating swings and misses has also been difficult; Berrios has a 21.2% strikeout rate and has failed to get to six or more strikeouts in a game in 14 of his 25 starts.
Drawing a matchup at home against the Cubs is a pretty nice spot. They are implied for only 3.6 runs and rank just inside the top 1o in strikeout rate this season. But as much as this matchup should help Berrios, he has shown to have little strikeout upside this season, and Stokastic projects him for only 4.8 strikeouts in this spot tonight.
Best MLB Pick Today: Jose Berrios UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Pablo Lopez O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Another pitcher in a brutal matchup tonight is Marlins Pablo Lopez starting at home against the Dodgers, who are implied for 4.4 runs. The Dodgers not only lead the league with a record of 88-38, but they also lead in runs, ISO and wOBA. This will be the first start that Lopez has had against the heavy-hitting Dodgers lineup this season. In his fifth season with the Marlins, Lopez has been very average, with an 8-8 record and a 3.66 ERA. His 23.7% strikeout rate is right around his career average as well.
Lopez has struggled getting to six strikeouts, however. In his last 11 starts, he has only struck out six or more in three games. Each of those three games were superb matchups, whereas this one is most definitely not. Stokastic projects Lopez for 5.1 strikeouts and an xWin rate of 60%.
Best MLB Pick Today: Pablo Lopez UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-154)
Corbin Burnes O/U 7.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
This is also the only prop in the parlay that is coming in at even money. Corbin Burnes has seen a little bit of a drop-off in his strikeout rate, down to 31.4%, which is much lower than his two previous seasons. He has also been struggling recently with generating strikeouts. In four of his last five starts, Burnes has had six or fewer strikeouts, and one of those starts was against the Pirates. In that matchup, Burnes allowed four earned runs on 103 pitches and was only able to get through 5.1 innings with six strikeouts.
The Pirates are not a great offense, but even in his previous matchup against them, Burnes only had five strikeouts. Something about seeing Burnes on the mound gives this Pirates offense confidence. Stokastic projects Burnes for 7.4 strikeouts in this spot.
Best MLB Pick Today: Corbin Burnes UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Carlos Rodon O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Carlos Rodon will take the mound, having only lost two games since the start of June. Rodon leads the Giants this year in wins, ERA and strikeouts. Through 25 starts, he has a career-best 0.55 HR/9 and a very impressive 32.1% strikeout rate. In back-to-back games, Rodon has delivered with double-digit strikeouts. In fact, he is averaging 8.4 strikeouts per game during his last 10 starts, with only one start where he fell short on reaching seven or more strikeouts.
The matchup against the Padres isn’t all that ideal from a strikeout standpoint, but Rodon has been getting over this prop line with ease lately. He seems to be the best pitcher on the slate, and Stokastic projects Rodon for 6.9 strikeouts in this matchup and an xWin rate of 53%.
Best MLB Pick Today: Carlos Rodon OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-111)
